Dollar Faces Mounting Downside Pressure as Traders Assess Potential US-Japan Currency Intervention

Deep News
Jan 26

The US dollar weakened against major currencies on Monday, as investors weighed how the possibility of US assistance for Japan in intervening in the foreign exchange market could amplify negative sentiment towards the global reserve currency. During Asian trading hours, the yen rose nearly 1% against the dollar, as markets speculated that Japanese authorities might be preparing to intervene to support the beleaguered yen, with potential assistance from the US government. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell as much as 0.4%, extending last week's 1.6% decline. For many dollar watchers, signs of potential US support for the yen have reignited discussions about the possibility of coordinated currency intervention to guide the dollar lower against the currencies of major trading partners. Proponents argue that such an arrangement would help US exporters compete against rivals from countries like Japan. "If the New York Fed chooses to join the intervention, it would amplify the yen's appreciation momentum—and not just for symbolic reasons," said Gareth Berry, a strategist at Macquarie Group. "Japan certainly has a large amount of dollars to sell, but the New York Fed's supply is virtually unlimited. Such a move would also be interpreted as a signal that Trump desires broad dollar weakness." The discussions intensified last Friday when traders reported that the New York Federal Reserve Bank had contacted several financial institutions to inquire about yen exchange rates. Wall Street viewed this development as a precursor to potential market intervention by Japan, possibly with US support. Coordinated intervention to support the yen is historically rare, occurring once in 1998 and notably with the 1985 Plaza Accord—an agreement where the US, France, Japan, the UK, and West Germany jointly acted to depress the dollar. Early last year, market analysts hotly debated the so-called "Mar-a-Lago Accord," sparked by a paper from Stephen Miran, a former Trump administration economist and current Federal Reserve Governor, which focused on intentionally guiding the dollar lower. Daniel Baeza, Senior Vice President at Frontclear, stated that any signs of coordinated action could undermine market confidence in the dollar. "The more significant signal lies in the policy coordination itself," he said. "If the market interprets this coordination as a willingness to tolerate global dollar weakness, especially if the Fed responds dovishly, it could exacerbate short-term downside pressure on the dollar."

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