Abstract

NorthWestern will release its quarterly results on February 11, 2026 Post Market; this preview consolidates recent financial data and forecasts to outline expected revenue, margins, adjusted EPS, and business segment dynamics for the period, along with prevailing institutional sentiment.

Market Forecast

Consensus tracking indicates NorthWestern’s current-quarter revenue is projected at USD 417.71 million, with gross profit margin suggested around recent run-rate levels and net profit margin consistent with recent quarters; adjusted EPS is forecast at USD 1.19, with year-over-year growth of 5.17%. The company’s main business is electric operations and gas distribution, with electric revenue leading; management focus remains on rate execution and cost control while storm-related recovery and customer growth support volume resilience. The most promising segment in recent updates is electric operations, with last quarter revenue at USD 339.75 million and continued YoY demand support; gas contributed USD 47.20 million, complementing seasonal performance.

Last Quarter Review

NorthWestern’s previous quarter delivered revenue of USD 387.00 million, gross profit margin of 60.96%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent of USD 38.23 million, net profit margin of 9.88%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.79, with year-over-year adjusted EPS growth of 21.54%. A notable highlight was EBIT outperformance versus consensus, at USD 90.50 million actual compared with a USD 83.86 million estimate, underscoring improved operating efficiency and constructive rate outcomes. Main business results showed electric revenue of USD 339.75 million and gas revenue of USD 47.20 million, reflecting stable demand patterns across regulated utility operations.

Current Quarter Outlook

Electric Operations

Electric operations remain the core revenue engine, and are expected to anchor this quarter’s performance given the regulated rate base and steady customer growth. With last quarter electric revenue at USD 339.75 million, the forecast implies continued constructive trends supported by normalizing weather and load factors. Cost discipline and recovery mechanisms should sustain margins near recent levels, although fuel and purchased power costs and potential storm-related expenses can create variability. Management’s execution on approved rates and capital deployment into reliability and grid modernization will be central to maintaining gross margin stability and defending net margin performance across the period.

Gas Distribution

Gas distribution provides seasonal ballast and diversification that can ease earnings volatility across weather cycles. Last quarter gas revenue of USD 47.20 million reflects typical seasonal demand patterns; the current quarter outlook assumes stable service levels and prudent cost recovery. The segment’s contribution is less sensitive to large price movements due to pass-through structures, but extreme weather swings can still influence volumetric margins. Continued investment in safety, infrastructure replacement, and regulatory recovery should help preserve predictable returns and provide a modest uplift where customer additions and efficiency gains materialize.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

The stock’s near-term movement will be driven by delivery relative to EPS and EBIT forecasts, as well as clarity on regulatory rate progress and any updates to capital expenditure plans. Upside scenarios include clean execution that yields adjusted EPS at or above USD 1.19 and EBIT near the implied forecast of USD 109.97 million, coupled with stable or slightly improved margins as seen in the prior quarter. Risks include adverse weather impacts, higher-than-expected purchased power costs, or timing differences in regulatory recovery that could pressure net margins. Investor focus will also be on the cadence of rate cases, storm cost recovery, and any commentary on long-term capital deployment priorities that could recalibrate trajectory for revenue growth and margin sustainability.

Analyst Opinions

The majority of recent institutional commentary has been cautiously positive, favoring steady execution in regulated operations and supportive year-over-year growth in adjusted EPS and revenue. Analysts point to the prior quarter’s EBIT beat and adjusted EPS outperformance versus estimates as evidence of improving operational traction. Expectations emphasize a balanced stance: constructive rate environments and disciplined cost control support the case for meeting or modestly exceeding guidance, while attention remains on weather normalization and purchased power costs as constraints. On balance, the prevailing view anticipates NorthWestern to deliver in line with or marginally above the USD 417.71 million revenue and USD 1.19 EPS forecasts, provided operating conditions remain consistent with recent trends.