On September 30, gold's overall price action once again fell into a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with the market currently choosing its next directional breakout or breakdown, and the core reason for this renewed battle is that the bullish and bearish logics in the market are still offsetting each other and pulling against one another.

At present, gold is still being affected simultaneously by long-term bullish factors and short-term bearish factors, and these two forces remain evenly matched. Over the long term, the global debt risk and the broader environment of currency depreciation have consistently provided strong support for gold; however, once short-term liquidity tightens in the market, funds begin selling gold to bring cash back, which puts sustained pressure on the gold price, just like the decline seen during this period.

Now this tug-of-war force between bulls and bears has returned again, making it difficult for the short-term market to produce a major breakout or breakdown, and the overall market has once again entered a phase dominated by range-bound consolidation. In fact, the overall trend of gold toward the end of the year depends entirely on the battle between two major trading logics.

On one hand is the logic of fiscal pressure and currency depreciation, as the market worries about fiscal stress, driving funds to allocate to gold for long-term hedging, which forms strong support for the gold price. On the other hand is the suppressing logic brought by rising interest rates, as continuously rising rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, causing the market to sell gold again, which restrains the rise in gold prices.

Right now, the market is precisely because these two logics exist at the same time and offset each other, causing the short-term market to become even more volatile again. From the current technical chart, gold successfully stopped falling near the previous low around 4110, and there is now a small oscillating rebound and repair move, while the upside is also testing short-term technical resistance. In any case, once the bullish trend gradually breaks above the various resistance levels above, gold has a strong chance to rebound back above the 4200 and even 4300 marks.

However, judging from current market momentum, short-term bullish strength is not sufficient, various technical indicators remain relatively weak overall, and the market's overall rhythm still leans bearish. The strength of the rebound still needs further confirmation, and it is still difficult for a strong one-sided reversal to emerge for the time being. So in current short-term trading, the market can still first be treated as range-bound oscillation. Recently, price movements have lacked strong continuity, with short-term gains and losses mostly back-and-forth shakeouts.

The most important dividing line above is currently at the 4200-4205 mark. As long as bulls fail to hold this level later, the market will still have to maintain weak oscillation; while the key short-term support below has now begun to move higher, basically reaching the 4155-4165 mark. But even if the short term breaks below this area again, support near 4110-4115 below is unlikely to be broken further. Therefore, in current short-term operations, as long as gold does not continuously break above 4205 and extend upward, and does not continuously fall below 4155 and extend downward, then short-term operations can temporarily be locked within the broad 4155-4205 oscillation range to capture the back-and-forth trading rhythm.

For subsequent short-term trading points, references can also be made as follows: 1. Short on rebounds under pressure: wait for a rebound to the 4200-4205 area to go short, with defense above 4215, and target temporarily looking down to the 4155-4165 area; 2. Light long attempts on rebounds during weak oscillation: wait for the market to pull back again to the 4155-4165 area to go long, with defense below 4135, and target temporarily looking up to 4195-4205. 3. Current short-term trading should note that although the market remains weak, a rebound can happen in an instant, so once gold again stabilizes and breaks above the 4200-4205 mark, then short-term shorting should be temporarily abandoned, and the focus should continue to be on following the rebound to go long and look for oscillating gains, with the next long target then again seen at the 4300 mark. Sina cooperation platform futures account opening is safe, fast, and secure. Sina statement: This news is reprinted from a Sina cooperative media outlet. Sina publishes this article for the purpose of conveying more information and does not mean it agrees with or confirms its views or descriptions. The article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors who act on this do so at their own risk.