Hot sections: self-selected stocks, data center, market center, capital flows, simulated trading client.

Rebar: Yesterday, the rebar market showed a narrow fluctuation pattern. The rebar 2610 contract closed at 3,076 yuan per tonne, up 5 yuan from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.16%, with open interest down by 115,000 lots. Spot prices remained largely stable while trading volumes declined slightly. In Tangshan's Qian'an area, the plain billet price held at 3,000 yuan per tonne, and in Hangzhou's market, Zhongtian rebar stayed at 3,100 yuan per tonne. National construction material trading volume reached 89,800 tonnes. According to Mysteel data, from August 18-24, China's total steel export shipments were 2.3641 million tonnes, an increase of 228,000 tonnes or 10.7% month-on-month. Steel export shipments shifted from stabilization to significant growth, recording the fastest weekly growth rate in the past five weeks, with a year-on-year increase of 411,500 tonnes or 21.1%. High export levels provide some support in alleviating domestic supply pressure. However, while rebar demand has improved slightly month-on-month, it remains at low levels, and whether demand can sustain its recovery needs further observation. In the short term, rebar market prices are expected to continue fluctuating narrowly.

Iron Ore: Yesterday, the main iron ore futures contract i2701 rebounded slightly, closing at 720 yuan per tonne, up 6.5 yuan from the previous close, an increase of 0.91%, with trading volume of 238,500 lots and open interest up by 7,300 lots. Port spot prices rose slightly, with Rizhao Port's 60.8% PB fines up 6 yuan to 693 yuan, and Carajas fines up 6 yuan to 842 yuan. On the supply side, port import ore arrivals declined slightly this period, but overall port trade resources remain sufficient, with traders showing average selling enthusiasm. On the demand side, last week's hot metal output declined slightly, steel mills' production enthusiasm was moderate, and with recent slight increases in import ore prices, steel mills remain cautious in their purchasing, primarily buying on an as-needed basis. Demand-side support for iron ore prices is limited. With no substantive improvement drivers on either supply or demand side, the short-term iron ore market will continue its narrow range fluctuations.

Coking Coal: Yesterday, the coking coal market declined, with the 2701 contract closing at 1,574 yuan per tonne, down 4 yuan or 0.25%, with open interest increasing by 28,671 lots. In spot markets, Jiexiu main coking coal (A＜10.5, S＜1.3, G＞80) remained flat at 1,990 yuan per tonne; Ganqimaodu Port's Mongolian No.5 raw coal fell 111 yuan to 1,654 yuan per tonne, while Mongolian No.3 washed coal rose 20 yuan to 1,620 yuan per tonne. Some mines in major production areas have completed inspections and begun resuming production, though the overall recovery pace is slow, with very limited actual output increases. Mine capacity release remains constrained. Most mines currently hold low inventory levels, with optimistic sales outlooks and stable shipment schedules. The second round of coke price increases followed quickly with larger increments, further strengthening the bullish momentum in the coking coal market. Additionally, amid consecutive price hikes and profit recovery expectations, downstream coke producers, despite some production cuts, maintain medium-to-low raw coal inventories. Given the tight coking coal supply, downstream coke producers show good restocking enthusiasm. Short-term coking coal market prices are expected to fluctuate within a range.

Coke: Yesterday, the coke market declined, with the 2701 contract closing at 2,109.5 yuan per tonne, down 35.5 yuan or 1.66%, with open interest decreasing by 3,908 lots. In spot markets, Rizhao Port's quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke fell 10 yuan to 1,840 yuan per tonne. Upstream coking coal prices continue to run at high levels, strengthening furnace feed costs and causing deep losses for coke producers, who show poor production enthusiasm. Coke producers in Hebei and Northeast China are actively implementing further output reductions, production limits, or maintenance. Overall coke plant operating rates are concentrated around 70-80%, with some top-charged plants down to about 60%. Coke supply has become relatively tight recently. Finished steel performance remains weak, squeezing steel mill profit margins. While some steel mills' production restarts have driven modest demand recovery, others maintain low coke inventories, and this low inventory state further stimulates restocking intentions. Short-term coke market prices are expected to fluctuate within a range.

Manganese Silicon: On Wednesday, manganese silicon futures strengthened, with the main contract closing at 5,980 yuan per tonne, up 0.44% month-on-month, with open interest increasing by 7,007 lots to 407,300 lots. Ganglian data shows regional 6517 manganese silicon market prices at approximately 5,750-5,930 yuan per tonne, essentially unchanged from the previous day. The black metal complex showed some divergence yesterday, with manganese silicon futures' center of gravity moving slightly higher. Recently, manganese ore cost support has been strong, with Tianjin Port's Gabon ore rising 0.2 yuan/mtu to 39.2 yuan/mtu, and traders showing strong expectations for price increases. From a supply-demand perspective, weekly manganese silicon production has recently reversed its decline and increased, with last week's output up 5.17% to 168,700 tonnes. Ningxia's manganese silicon production operating rate increased by 8.04 percentage points week-on-week to 37.8%. On the demand side, sample steel mills' manganese silicon demand fell 1.08% week-on-week to 112,800 tonnes, declining for four consecutive weeks and remaining at relatively low absolute levels. On the inventory side, inventories at 63 sample manganese silicon enterprises increased slightly week-on-week to 459,000 tonnes as of August 21, up 303,000 tonnes year-on-year, continuously hitting new highs in recent years. However, manganese silicon warehouse receipts plus valid pre-announcement volumes declined year-on-year. Overall, the fundamental upward momentum lacks sufficient drive, and short-term manganese silicon futures are expected to continue fluctuating.

Silicon Iron: On Wednesday, silicon iron futures weakened, with the main contract closing at 5,924 yuan per tonne, down 1.4% month-on-month, with open interest decreasing by 39,295 lots to 434,600 lots. Regional 72 silicon iron prices ranged from 5,580-5,650 yuan per tonne, with Ningxia prices down 20 yuan from the previous day. The black metal complex showed divergence yesterday, with coke prices leading declines and silicon iron futures' center of gravity shifting lower. According to Ferro-Alloy Online survey data, nine silicon iron enterprises were in operation in Xinjiang, Sichuan, Chongqing, and Yunnan in August, with both operating rates and output increasing month-on-month. Last week, China's total silicon iron output was 113,800 tonnes, up 1.7% week-on-week. On the demand side, sample steel mills' silicon iron demand fell 1.23% week-on-week to 18,200 tonnes, declining for four consecutive weeks and sitting at relatively low levels for the same period in the past five years. Magnesium ingot output increased slightly week-on-week, with daily output up 0.99% to 3,069 tonnes. On the inventory side, inventories at 60 sample enterprises fell by 11,200 tonnes week-on-week to 76,630 tonnes. Overall, with weakening cost-side support expectations, silicon iron futures' center of gravity has shifted slightly lower. Attention should be paid to the overall black metal complex trend, and short-term silicon iron prices are expected to fluctuate within a wide range.

Disclaimer: The information in this report is sourced from publicly available data. Our company makes no guarantees regarding its accuracy, reliability, or completeness, nor does it guarantee that the information and recommendations contained herein will not change. We have strived to ensure the report's content is objective and fair, but the views, conclusions, and recommendations presented are for reference only and do not constitute promotion of any specific product or business, nor operational basis or recommendations for related varieties. Investors making investment decisions based on this report do so at their own risk, and neither the company nor the authors bear any responsibility.