Everbright Securities has released a report indicating that recent conflicts in the Middle East have driven significant price increases for sulfur and sulfuric acid globally. According to SMM, the delivered price of sulfur in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has reached $1,500–$2,300 per ton, while sulfuric acid is priced at $1,000–$1,400 per ton. If the Middle East conflict persists, a shortage of sulfuric acid overseas could disrupt up to 8% of global mined copper supply. Everbright Securities remains optimistic about rising copper prices. Companies with a high proportion of domestic copper production and those less reliant on sulfuric acid are expected to be better positioned. Key points from the report include:

By 2025, five Middle Eastern countries are projected to account for 24% of global sulfur production. According to USGS, worldwide sulfur output is estimated at approximately 84 million tons, with Saudi Arabia contributing 7.2 million tons, the UAE 6.3 million tons, Qatar 3.1 million tons, Iran 2.1 million tons, and Kuwait 1.3 million tons. Sulfur is a byproduct of oil and gas production. Since the onset of Middle East conflicts, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been obstructed, and some production facilities have been damaged, making a swift recovery in Middle Eastern sulfur output unlikely.

The combined hydrometallurgical copper output of the DRC and Chile is expected to represent 17% of global mined copper production by 2025. ICSG data shows global mined copper production at 23.126 million tons, with hydrometallurgical copper accounting for 4.918 million tons, or about 21.3%. Chile is projected to produce 5.415 million tons of mined copper, including 1.14 million tons from hydrometallurgical processes (21%), while the DRC is expected to produce 3.314 million tons, with 2.757 million tons from hydrometallurgical methods (83%). Together, Chile and the DRC will contribute 79.8% of global hydrometallurgical copper output, representing 16.9% of total mined copper production worldwide.

Sulfuric acid costs now constitute 32% of copper prices. The hydrometallurgical copper process requires 3–4 tons of sulfuric acid per ton of copper (using an average of 3.5 tons). In the DRC, the cost of sulfuric acid has risen to 32% of the copper price, based on sulfuric acid at $1,200 per ton and copper at $13,289 per ton as of April 24, 2026. SMM data indicates that sulfuric acid expenses account for 25% of production costs for externally sourced ore in the DRC's hydrometallurgical operations, and up to 42% for operations using self-mined ore.

If China restricts sulfuric acid exports, Chile could face a reduction of up to 280,000 tons in hydrometallurgical copper output, representing 1.2% of global mined copper production in 2025. Based on 2025 production figures and an average consumption of 3.5 tons of sulfuric acid per ton of copper, Chile's hydrometallurgical sector would require 3.99 million tons of sulfuric acid. Chile is expected to import 272,000 tons of sulfur (equivalent to 817,000 tons of sulfuric acid) and 3.96 million tons of sulfuric acid in 2025, with China supplying 1.474 million tons, or 37% of total imports. If China limits exports, Chile could face a theoretical sulfuric acid shortfall of 980,000 tons, potentially affecting 280,000 tons of copper production, without accounting for inventory adjustments, changes in acid usage in other sectors, or sulfur supplies from other regions.

A sulfuric acid shortage in the DRC could impact up to 1.59 million tons of hydrometallurgical copper output, equivalent to 6.8% of global mined copper production in 2025. In 2023, the DRC imported 2.7 million tons of sulfur, with 2.22 million tons sourced from the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Oman, representing 82% of total imports. The country also imported 550,000 tons of sulfuric acid, primarily from Zambia. If Middle Eastern sulfur exports do not recover by 2026, the DRC could face a theoretical sulfuric acid deficit of 5.55 million tons, potentially disrupting 1.59 million tons of copper production, assuming sulfur demand remains at 2023 levels and without considering inventory changes or export restrictions from Zambia.

Risks include the potential recovery of sulfur supplies from the Middle East and weaker-than-expected demand.