On March 12, gold continued its sideways movement. After the Asian session opened, prices rose to break through the 5200 mark, but the subsequent gains were limited. Throughout the day, trading hovered around the 5200 level, ultimately closing at $5175 with a small bearish doji candlestick on the daily chart.
The market currently sits at a delicate equilibrium. Geopolitical tensions persist, yet oil prices are capped by strategic reserve releases. Inflation data remains moderate, but expectations for interest rate cuts have been pushed back. While ETF inflows have hit record levels, technical indicators show pressure. These conflicting factors have trapped gold in a narrow range with clear resistance above and support below.
Iranian President Pezeshkian proposed three conditions to end the conflict: recognition of Iran's legitimate rights, payment of war reparations, and international security guarantees. A spokesperson for the Khatam al-Anbia Central Command stated that the Strait of Hormuz is fully under Iran's control. Former U.S. President Trump mentioned that military action against Iran is "concluding," with "few remaining targets" inside the country. However, American and Israeli officials indicated they have not yet received orders to halt operations. These remarks temporarily dampened safe-haven demand, though the actual situation on the ground remains contradictory, leaving markets in a wait-and-see mode.
Technically, overnight trading pushed gold back below the hourly moving average band, reverting the short-term trend to a weaker bias. This morning saw a dip followed by a rebound, which encountered resistance near the 5170 moving average area. Barring unexpected positive fundamental news, a technical recovery above this band appears challenging today. Key resistance is seen in the 5170-5190 zone on the hourly chart, with major resistance near the upper range boundary of 5220-5230. Downside potential appears greater for the session, with initial support at the morning low of 5120, which aligns with the 20-day moving average. A break below this level would significantly increase the likelihood of further declines, potentially testing the 5050-5020 support area.
In summary, mixed bullish and bearish signals have created high market sensitivity, making gold prone to sharp swings on any news. However, the overall trading range has contracted. The market is holding its breath for the next catalyst—whether a substantive escalation or de-escalation in geopolitical tensions, or clear signals from next week's Federal Reserve meeting. Until then, traders should focus on range-bound strategies, buying near support and selling near resistance, while avoiding chasing breakouts. Strict position management is essential to guard against extreme volatility triggered by unforeseen events.
Today's trading suggestion: Gold: Operate within the 5120-5230 range. Set a 10-point stop loss and target profits of 60-80 points.
Key economic data and events to watch on Thursday, March 12: 20:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 7 20:30 U.S. New Home Starts (Annualized) for January 20:30 U.S. Building Permits for January 20:30 U.S. Trade Balance for January