Abstract

Cae Inc will release its quarterly results on February 12, 2026 Post Market; this preview synthesizes the latest actual results and consensus forecasts to frame revenue, margins, EPS, and segment dynamics that could shape market reaction.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the current quarter points to revenue of USD 1.26 billion, adjusted EBIT of USD 189.16 million, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.30, with year-over-year growth of 7.99% for revenue, 6.14% for EBIT, and 7.46% for EPS; margin commentary is mixed, with no explicit consensus gross margin figure available and the net margin implied to be modestly higher year over year. The main business is expected to be anchored by Civil Aviation Training Solutions, with steady training demand and simulator deliveries, while the outlook for Defense and Security suggests stable execution despite budget timing variability. The most promising segment is Civil Aviation Training Solutions, which previously generated USD 670.00 million in quarterly revenue; ongoing pilot training demand and a robust backlog support year-over-year growth.

Last Quarter Review

Cae Inc’s prior quarter delivered revenue of USD 1.24 billion, a gross profit margin of 25.82%, net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 73.90 million, a net profit margin of 5.98%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.23, with year-over-year growth of 8.80% in revenue and a decline of 4.17% in adjusted EPS; net profit increased quarter over quarter by 29.20%. A key operational highlight was adjusted EBIT of USD 155.30 million, exceeding the estimated USD 148.07 million and signaling solid operating performance. Main business highlights included Civil Aviation Training Solutions revenue of USD 670.00 million and Defense and Security revenue of USD 566.60 million, reflecting a balanced mix and supportive training demand; specific year-over-year segment growth was not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook

Civil Aviation Training Solutions

Civil Aviation Training Solutions stands at the center of the current quarter’s earnings narrative given its USD 670.00 million contribution last quarter and persistent underlying demand drivers. Airlines and business aviation operators continue to prioritize pilot proficiency and regulatory compliance, sustaining full-flight simulator utilization and new device deployments. The forecasted company-level revenue growth of 7.99% year over year aligns with continued high training activity and improved availability of simulators and capacity across centers. Margin trajectory in Civil should be aided by better mix from higher-margin training services and operating leverage from utilization, although pricing resets and cost inflation in labor and logistics could temper incremental gains.

Defense and Security

Defense and Security remains a significant revenue pillar at USD 566.60 million last quarter, with program execution and milestone timing influencing quarterly variability. The EBIT forecast up 6.14% year over year suggests operating performance is expected to improve alongside progress on contracted programs and delivery schedules. While budget cycles and acceptance milestones can create timing noise, training systems and mission rehearsal demand provide a recurring base. Near-term stock price sensitivity will likely hinge on visibility into backlog conversion, any updates on program delays or accelerations, and the mix of cost-plus versus fixed-price contracts affecting margin capture.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Investors will focus on whether the company can translate top-line growth into margin expansion after the prior quarter’s 25.82% gross margin and 5.98% net margin. The forecasted EPS of USD 0.30 represents a 7.46% year-over-year increase, implying more efficient cost control and operating leverage; confirmation through segment EBIT mix will be critical for valuation. Segment momentum in Civil Aviation Training Solutions, combined with steady Defense program execution, could provide upside if backlog conversion accelerates and if pricing dynamics in training services support sustained gross margin. Conversely, any signs of program slippage in Defense or capacity constraints in Civil training centers could cap earnings power in the near term.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent institutional commentary and consensus tendencies, the balance of views skews cautiously bullish, with the majority citing stable demand in Civil training, improving execution in Defense, and supportive year-over-year growth for revenue and EPS in the upcoming quarter. Analysts highlighting the forecasted EPS of USD 0.30 and year-over-year revenue growth of 7.99% view the setup as constructive, predicated on sustained training demand and measured margin improvements. Commentaries emphasize the importance of quarterly EBIT delivery around USD 189.16 million and a clearer translation of backlog into revenue, suggesting that if results track or modestly exceed forecasts, the stock could see favorable reaction. The cautious element centers on the need for stronger net margin expansion beyond mid-single-digit levels, which would validate operating leverage and cost discipline in both Civil and Defense segments.