美国最新公布的就业数据表现疲软，超出市场预期，这进一步增强了美联储重启降息周期的可能性。数据显示，上周初请失业金人数高于共识预期，而就业咨询公司Challenger报告显示1月裁员公告数量大幅上升。与此同时，职位空缺和劳动力流动调查数据表明职位空缺数量出现下降。
Pantheon Macroeconomics经济学家塞缪尔·汤姆斯指出，劳动力市场的低迷表现"暗示联邦公开市场委员会可能过早地将关注重点从劳动力市场重新转向通胀问题"。他分析认为，人工智能技术的快速发展可能"促使越来越多的企业暂停新增招聘计划"。
根据CME FedWatch工具的最新测算，美联储在3月会议上维持利率不变的概率已从昨日的91%降至77%，而降息的可能性则从9%攀升至23%。这一数据变化清晰反映出市场对货币政策转向的预期正在快速升温。
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