Reusable rocket technology reaching a breakthrough represents the pivotal turning point for commercial spaceflight to achieve scaled commercial operations, according to a research report from Everbright Securities. The industry's development logic will progressively unfold along the main theme of "reusable rockets reducing costs, accelerated deployment of satellite constellations, formation of an integrated space-air-ground network, and expansion of downstream application scenarios."
In the short term, launches such as the Long March 10B and Zhuque-3 are expected to provide significant catalysts for the sector. From a medium-term perspective, the networking of the GW and Qianfan constellations will gradually drive demand for satellite manufacturing and launch services. Looking further ahead, long-term applications like 6G integrated space-air-ground networks, space-based computing power, space-based photovoltaics, and on-orbit services will continue to expand the market's potential.
The primary viewpoints of Everbright Securities are outlined as follows:
In the near future, multiple domestic reusable rockets are anticipated to undergo intensive launch campaigns. Progress on projects like the Long March 10B's sea-based net recovery and the Zhuque-3's vertical recovery will propel China's commercial space sector through a crucial window, transitioning from "thematic catalysts" to "validation of a technological inflection point."
The brokerage believes that the continuous iteration and advancement of reusable rocket technology will alleviate supply constraints for China's low-Earth orbit constellation development. It will also enhance the developmental certainty across various segments, including satellite manufacturing, ground terminals, rocket manufacturing and recovery support, and measurement, tracking, and control. Commercial spaceflight is on the verge of surpassing the 'Karman Line' of launch capacity.
Domestic Reusable Rocket Development Accelerates, July Poised as Key Node for Technical Verification
1) Long March 10B: This is a reusable commercial liquid rocket led by the First Academy of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation. It features a 5-meter core stage and a fully domestic supply chain. Its maiden flight will simultaneously validate China's original sea-based net recovery technology. After stage separation, the first stage will decelerate via engine retro-thrust and attitude control with grid fins before re-entering a designated sea area, where it will be precisely captured by a flexible arresting net on a maritime recovery platform.
2) Zhuque-3: Developed independently by LandSpace for large constellation networking missions, this is a high-capacity, low-cost, reusable large liquid launch vehicle. In its mature, recovery-capable configuration, its low-Earth orbit payload capacity is projected to be no less than 18 tons. The Yao-1 rocket was launched on December 3, 2025, successfully achieving orbit but failing its recovery test. The Yao-2 rocket completed a static fire test on June 29, 2026.
SpaceX Validates Commercial Spaceflight Success Path, Domestic Capital Market Progress Accelerates
1) SpaceX: Priced at approximately $1.77 trillion during its June 2026 IPO, its market capitalization exceeded $2 trillion post-listing. According to its prospectus filed in May 2026, SpaceX generated total revenue of $18.674 billion in 2025. This comprised $4.086 billion from its Space (rocket launch) segment, $11.387 billion from its Starlink segment, and $3.201 billion from its AI segment. The corresponding operating profits were -$657 million, $4.423 billion, and -$6.355 billion, respectively.
2) Progress of Domestic Commercial Space IPOs: LandSpace resumed its IPO review on the Shanghai STAR Market on June 29, 2026 (status: "under inquiry"), aiming to raise 7.5 billion yuan. CAS Space's application was accepted in March and entered the inquiry stage in April, with a fundraising target of 4.18 billion yuan. Minospace's application was accepted in May. Companies such as Galactic Energy, Spacety, Tianbing Technology, i-Space, XingYun Satellite, and GalaxySpace are all in the preparatory guidance stage.
Integrated Space-Air-Ground Network and Long-Term Applications Like Space-Based Computing Open Up Sustained Growth Potential
1) Integrated Space-Air-Ground "One Network": The large-scale deployment of low-Earth orbit satellite constellations lays the infrastructure foundation for integrated space-air-ground systems. As of June 24, 2026, Starlink had over 10,600 satellites in orbit and more than 12.5 million users. China's GW and Qianfan constellations have a combined plan for nearly 20,000+ satellites.
2) Space-Based Computing Power: The inaugural mission of the "Tri-Computing Constellation" by the Zhejiang Lab has established four core capabilities: networking, computing, model deployment, and in-orbit validation of scientific payloads, achieving a total in-orbit computing power of 5 POPS. In February 2026, SpaceX submitted an application to the FCC to deploy up to 1 million orbital data center satellites, aiming to meet the long-term energy demands of AI training with space-based computing resources.
3) On-Orbit Services: With the large-scale deployment of low-Earth orbit constellations, demand for services like satellite maintenance, orbital adjustments, and debris removal is expected to grow rapidly. On-orbit services will become a crucial guarantee for making satellite internet networks "affordable to build and reliable to use," indicating high certainty for industry growth.
Risk Analysis
Potential risks include slower-than-expected iteration of reusable technology, delays in satellite constellation networking progress, and intensifying industry competition.