Title

Earning Preview: Expro Group Holdings N.V. this quarter’s revenue is expected to decrease by 5.21%, and institutional views are cautious

Abstract

Expro Group Holdings N.V. is scheduled to post quarterly results on February 19, 2026 Pre-Market, with our preview centered on a projected $423.52 million in revenue and $0.25 adjusted EPS, alongside a detailed assessment of segment mix, margin setup, and the most material stock-price swing factors.

Market Forecast

Market modeling for the upcoming quarter indicates revenue of $423.52 million, down 5.21% year over year, EBIT of $39.00 million, down 14.94% year over year, and adjusted EPS of $0.25, down 18.52% year over year. Forecasts do not explicitly guide to a gross profit margin or net profit margin, though investors will compare the print to last quarter’s 24.36% gross profit margin and 3.39% net profit margin to gauge direction of travel for profitability.

The company’s operations remain anchored in two principal revenue streams: Well Management and Well Construction. Based on the last reported quarter’s mix, Well Management carried the larger contribution and remains the key focus for execution, pricing stability, and margin delivery in the period ahead. Within these operations, the most promising near-term contributor is the Well Management unit, which delivered $261.01 million last quarter; year-over-year growth data by segment was not disclosed in the dataset, so performance will be evaluated against the quarter’s revenue baseline and qualitative indicators on activity cadence and contract timing.

Last Quarter Review

Expro Group Holdings N.V. reported revenue of $411.36 million in the last quarter, with a 24.36% gross profit margin, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $13.96 million, a 3.39% net profit margin, and adjusted EPS of $0.24, which increased 4.35% year over year; net profit declined 22.44% quarter over quarter, indicating near-term pressure on bottom-line conversion despite sequential revenue support.

A notable financial highlight was the positive year-over-year progression in adjusted EPS despite lower revenue, implying a degree of cost discipline and favorable mix effects that partially offset volume softness. From a business-mix standpoint, Well Management generated $261.01 million and represented 63.45% of last quarter’s revenue, while Well Construction delivered $150.34 million, or 36.55%; the data provided did not include segment-level year-over-year growth, so the assessment hinges on absolute revenue and mix stability versus prior trends.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Well Management

Well Management is the company’s largest revenue contributor by a wide margin, and the segment’s execution quality is central to how the upcoming quarter will be judged. With a last-quarter revenue baseline of $261.01 million and an overall company forecast that embeds year-over-year declines in total revenue and adjusted EPS, the focus shifts to mix, timing, and pricing within this segment. Stable service pricing, on-time delivery of ongoing programs, and a steady cadence of interventions would support margin resilience, while any scheduling slippages or extended gap days could introduce volatility in revenue realization and gross profit conversion.

A key monitoring point is how the company manages capacity and personnel against the current backlog to keep utilization healthy without incurring excess standby cost. Last quarter’s 24.36% gross profit margin sets a reference point; if Well Management keeps asset and personnel utilization tight and limits nonproductive downtime, the gross margin profile can remain defensible even against a softer year-over-year revenue backdrop. The combination of selective bid discipline and operational efficiency should help preserve contribution margins. Conversely, overstaffing or prolonged mobilization cycles that do not immediately translate into billable days could tamp gross margins and put incremental pressure on adjusted EBIT.

We also see working capital stewardship within this segment as a near-term differentiator for cash conversion. Shorter cash cycles on service invoices, tighter DSO ranges, and efficient logistics planning can lift free cash flow relative to earnings. Given the company’s forecasted EPS compression year over year, any incremental cash generation from Well Management would temper the headline EPS narrative and support valuation debates about durability of margins into the next quarter. Investors will likely parse commentary on backlog visibility, contract renewal cadence, and expected run-rate of higher-margin service lines to infer whether the next few quarters can stabilize both revenue and margin trajectories despite current-quarter YoY pressure.

Most Promising Business: Well Management’s Margin-Leverage Potential

Although Well Construction can provide incremental growth when project ramp-ups align, Well Management stands out as the most promising near-term lever for preserving overall performance because it accounts for 63.45% of revenue and typically offers stronger day-rate dynamics and better variable-cost alignment. The $261.01 million revenue print last quarter provides a sizable base from which modest improvements in utilization and mix can translate disproportionately into profitability. Even with the market forecasting a 5.21% year-over-year decline in company revenue and an 18.52% decline in adjusted EPS for the current period, incremental operational wins in Well Management—like higher attachment rates for complementary services—could soften the magnitude of EPS compression.

Three elements matter most for extracting more from this segment in the current quarter. First, maintaining a favorable mix of services that are less susceptible to unbilled downtime supports gross margin integrity; second, aligning staffing and equipment rotations with confirmed work windows reduces nonrecoverable time; and third, carefully passing through logistics and consumables costs where contract structures allow protects unit economics. If these elements track well, Well Management can produce gross profit above what a simple revenue model would suggest, offering a ballast to consolidated EBIT, which is projected to fall 14.94% year over year.

In the absence of disclosed segment-level growth rates for the quarter, investors will benchmark Well Management against its last reported revenue and the consolidated gross margin reference point. Outperformance versus the $261.01 million baseline, combined with stability at or above last quarter’s gross margin, would be a positive signal that the consolidated revenue and EPS declines are better contained than estimates imply. Underperformance would reinforce the conservative tone embedded in the forecasts, increasing scrutiny on expense control and the pace of subsequent-quarter recovery.

Key Stock-Price Swing Factors This Quarter

The first swing factor is the trajectory of gross margin versus last quarter’s 24.36%. Even small shifts in gross margin can have outsized impact on adjusted EBIT and EPS given the forecasted year-over-year declines in both revenue and earnings. A margin print materially above the prior quarter would suggest stronger-than-expected operational execution, mix, and pricing capture; a material shortfall would likely revive concerns about the sustainability of contribution margins in a softer revenue environment.

The second swing factor is the balance between operating leverage and discretionary cost management. Forecasted EBIT of $39.00 million implies compressed profitability year over year, so the company’s ability to temper selling, general, and administrative expenses and refine field-level cost per job will be pivotal. Any commentary indicating firm control over variable and semi-fixed costs can recalibrate sentiment around the implied EPS trajectory. Conversely, if the print reveals elevated nonrecurring costs or inefficiencies around mobilizations and ramp-ups, the gap to modeled EPS may widen.

The third swing factor is cash conversion. Investors will assess whether working capital unwinds are sufficient to translate earnings into liquidity, especially since margin movements are a central narrative this quarter. Clean receivables collection, stable inventories, and disciplined capital expenditures would foster positive free cash flow and reinforce confidence that management can navigate a down-YoY quarter without compromising balance-sheet flexibility. If free cash flow is soft relative to earnings, debate may tilt toward the durability of margins and the timing of normalization in subsequent quarters. Management’s discussion around expected cadence in backlog monetization and the steadiness of billing cycles will be watched closely to infer the run-rate for the next period.

Analyst Opinions

Our compilation of recent commentaries within the January 1, 2026 to February 12, 2026 window shows a majority cautious-to-bearish stance, centered on the expected year-over-year declines in revenue and adjusted EPS for the current quarter. The prevailing view highlights the company’s own forecast framework—revenue at $423.52 million, down 5.21% year over year, EBIT at $39.00 million, down 14.94%, and adjusted EPS at $0.25, down 18.52%—as the baseline for tempered near-term expectations. This cohort emphasizes that investor focus will likely pivot to gross margin versus last quarter’s 24.36% and the degree to which execution in Well Management can offset revenue softness. The absence of newly publicized rating upgrades in the specified period, together with limited fresh pre-earnings target revisions, reinforces the cautious signal implied by the forecasts. Institutional ownership disclosures such as a Schedule 13G/A filing by a large long-only manager indicate ongoing participation but do not provide a directional view for this print, leaving the earnings-model outputs as the primary sentiment anchor.

The majority view’s analytical framework is straightforward. With consolidated revenue and earnings modeled lower year over year, the debate turns to whether margin execution can deliver a positive surprise significant enough to re-rate expectations for subsequent quarters. A margin beat would challenge the cautious stance by demonstrating that the company can translate its current mix into acceptable profitability despite the headline declines. In contrast, a margin miss or evidence of under-absorption in either core segment would validate the bearish tilt and sharpen attention on the extent of cost action required to stabilize adjusted EBIT. This is why investors will dissect segment commentary for signs of improved utilization, tighter scheduling, and effective pass-through of variable costs; tangible evidence there would be the cleanest pathway to mitigating the modeled EPS compression.

In summary, the majority view is cautious-bearish heading into the release. That stance is driven by the forecasted year-over-year declines and the uncertainty around margin sustainability at or above last quarter’s 24.36%. The bar for a constructive post-print reaction is therefore set around a combination of revenue delivery near the $423.52 million marker and evidence that gross margin can remain firm or improve, particularly within Well Management. If the company can demonstrate meaningful resilience on these fronts, it could begin to recalibrate sentiment despite the negative year-over-year compares embedded in consensus-style modeling for the quarter at hand.