A price dispute between mining giant BHP Billiton PLC and Chinese state-owned iron ore buyers could persist for months, potentially extending into early 2026, as both sides remain deadlocked in negotiations.

According to sources familiar with the matter, the world's largest mining company's iron ore exports to China have seen minimal impact so far, primarily because the company has already sold most of its November and December iron ore allocations. Since China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) ordered a suspension of purchases late last month, the company has reportedly moved up to 50 shipments within days, offering them to international traders and at least one Chinese enterprise.

Any impact from CMRG's restrictions on BHP Billiton goods may only become apparent when the company begins selling ore for January delivery, a process set to commence next month. This timeline could provide BHP Billiton with some negotiating room during discussions. Sources requested anonymity due to the private commercial nature of the discussions.

China stands as the world's largest iron ore consumer by far, while BHP Billiton ranks among the three major suppliers providing the bulk of iron ore to Chinese steel manufacturers. Last week, reports indicated that CMRG had requested major domestic buyers, including steel mills and state-owned trading companies, to suspend purchases of any new dollar-denominated seaborne cargo from BHP Billiton.

This move further escalated previous actions that had suspended Jimblebar blend penalties, marking a more aggressive stance by CMRG in seeking additional negotiating leverage. The state-owned enterprise, established three years ago to strengthen China's position in negotiations with BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto Group, and Vale, has been pushing to sign long-term contracts on behalf of China's major steel mills. This approach would help Beijing negotiate discounts and other preferential terms.

"For years, China has been the world's largest buyer but had little say in pricing. Now, China wants to control prices. This also sends a signal to the rest of the world that China intends to play by new rules," said Marina Zhang, a researcher at the Australia-China Relations Institute at the University of Technology Sydney.

While CMRG lacks formal authority over individual plants or traders' commercial operations, its recommendations carry practical binding force due to the group's political influence and strategic importance within government hierarchies.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese expressed hope for a swift resolution last week, noting that iron ore "makes a significant contribution not only to the Chinese economy, but also to the Australian economy."

CMRG did not respond to requests for comment. A BHP Billiton spokesperson stated that the company does not comment on commercial negotiations.