Premarket Market Moves

On Friday, October 2, US stock index futures were all trading higher in the premarket session. As of press time, Dow futures were up 0.46%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.46%, and Nasdaq futures were up 0.58%.

As of press time, Germany's DAX index was up 0.84%, the UK's FTSE 100 was up 0.11%, France's CAC 40 was up 0.38%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 was up 0.47%.

As of press time, WTI crude was down 3.09% at $90.00 per barrel, while Brent crude was down 2.28% at $99.98 per barrel.

Market News

Major Jobs Report Looms: September Nonfarm Payrolls Expected to Fall to 90,000

The real flashpoint in tonight's nonfarm payrolls report could be whether the August figure sees a significant downward revision. The market expects 90,000 new jobs, below the preliminary reading of 162,000 in August, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1% and average hourly earnings rising 0.3% month over month. The unusual seasonal adjustment performance in August and a potential downward revision are key variables in interpreting this report: a prior-month revision lower and a stronger-than-expected September gain could occur simultaneously, so the two-month cumulative increase and the revised trend better reflect employment momentum than any single headline number. Initial and continuing jobless claims, ADP data, and business surveys broadly support the view that the labor market remains resilient, but consumers' perception of job opportunities continues to weaken, leaving room for a two-sided surprise. Meanwhile, soft inflation data and cautious remarks from Federal Reserve officials have pushed the probability of an October rate hike down from about 70% early in the week to roughly 25% by Thursday, and Goldman Sachs also pushed back its expectation for the next rate hike to December. After several consecutive weeks of selling, the US Treasury market finally staged a notable rebound, but traders did not change their fundamental view on future rate hikes. As the 10-year Treasury yield retreated from a 24-year high, market attention shifted to the US September nonfarm payrolls report due Friday evening Beijing time: if employment cools only modestly, the bond market may struggle to extend its rebound; only significantly weaker-than-expected employment and wage data could force investors to broadly pull back their rate-hike bets. Bond traders currently do not need to see employment continue to slow; they need to see data weak enough to shake the Fed's tightening path. Goldman Sachs models estimate that CTAs hold about $390 billion in global bond shorts, with US 10-year and 30-year Treasury shorts near 99% and 100% of their historical maximums, respectively, while the implied move for the S&P 500 that day had fallen to about 0.67%-0.70%. If employment cools modestly and wage pressures stay contained, falling rates could ease pressure on equity valuations; if data are notably weak or the prior month is revised down sharply, rate-hike expectations could fade further and trigger short covering by trend-following strategies, amplifying bond gains; if employment and wages come in stronger than expected, rate-hike pricing could rise again, exposing risk assets once more to the "good news for the economy, bad news for valuations" shock. Another major potential flashpoint in this report is the resonance between a reassessment of employment trends and crowded positioning in the bond market.

Macron Plans to Convene G7 to Stabilize Oil Prices; Expectations of Reserve Releases Push Crude Lower

French President Emmanuel Macron spoke with US and Canadian leaders on October 2 local time and plans to convene a G7 leaders' meeting as soon as possible to help curb persistent fuel price increases, focusing on easing global refined product supply tightness. According to a statement from the French presidential palace, France, which holds the G7 rotating presidency this year, is actively working with the International Energy Agency (IEA) to coordinate measures aimed at easing price pressures and safeguarding crude and refined product supply. Macron stressed that G7 nations acting together "without imposing energy export restrictions" serves the common interest. Overall coordination at the European level is also advancing. European countries have been holding emergency consultations on how to respond to Washington's pressure to release strategic fuel reserves and avoid a possible US energy export ban. Faced with global market turmoil triggered by geopolitical war, Europe has moved significantly more slowly than the US in tapping emergency oil reserves, so the region still has substantial reserves available for release.

Iran Reportedly Preparing for the "Worst Case": If the US Resumes Strikes, It Will Not Limit Itself to Symbolic Retaliation

Media reports cited multiple senior Iranian officials and people familiar with the matter as saying that Tehran believes internally that if the US launches another large-scale attack, Iran cannot respond with only symbolic action, but the relevant military options are still under review and no final decision has been made. Since Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian returned to Tehran from New York last week, senior Iranian officials and military commanders have been discussing the scope and timing of a response to another US attack. Three senior Iranian officials and one person familiar with the discussions said potential targets may no longer be limited to military assets directly linked to the US, but could expand to countries that support US military operations, and even to locations beyond the Middle East.

Fed's "Number Two and Number Three" Officials Sound Dovish in Succession, Overpowering Hawkish Voices as the Fed Tempers Aggressive October Rate-Hike Expectations

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson spoke on Thursday in language highly consistent with comments earlier this week by New York Fed President John Williams, with both emphasizing the need for more time to assess data before deciding the next policy move. Because "number two" Jefferson and "number three" Williams are both part of the informal core leadership "troika" supporting Chair Kevin Warsh, their coordinated remarks were interpreted by the market as reflecting the collective will of the Fed's top leadership rather than the personal view of individual officials. As a result, the priced probability of a rate hike at the October FOMC meeting in the federal funds futures market plunged from about 70% early in the week to about 25%, and the market's expected focus has clearly shifted to December. Although hawkish officials including Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari also spoke on Thursday, insisting that inflation remains too high and further tightening is needed, their voices were clearly overshadowed by Jefferson's dovish remarks.

Stock News

Toshiba Spends 60 Billion Yen to Expand HDD Output and Plans to Double Capacity, Storage Theme Weakens Broadly in Premarket; Seagate Falls More Than 13% Before the Bell

As of press time, shares of US HDD storage giant Seagate had plunged more than 13% in US premarket trading, as the market began reassessing the supply-demand landscape of the HDD storage industry amid AI data center expansion. On October 2, Japanese media reported that Toshiba Corp. plans to invest about 60 billion yen to expand its HDD plant in the Philippines, aiming to double its hard drive capacity for AI data centers by fiscal 2027. For US HDD giants Seagate and Western Digital, a major competitor sharply expanding capacity means that although demand for high-capacity HDDs from AI data centers is still growing exponentially, industry supply will also increase in tandem, and the currently tight supply-demand relationship may gradually ease around the end of this year, prompting market concerns that Seagate's future market share and pricing power could come under pressure. In recent years, AI data center expansion has continued to drive up demand for high-capacity HDDs. Compared with SSDs, which cost about 20 times as much as HDDs, HDDs remain an important choice for large-scale data storage due to their cost advantage. Seagate said in January this year that its nearline HDD capacity for 2026 was completely sold out, indicating that industry supply remains tight. Toshiba Corp.'s expansion also sends a clear signal: HDD demand growth driven by AI is still continuing, but manufacturers have already begun competing for incremental market share by expanding capacity and increasing per-drive capacity. As Toshiba Corp. and Western Digital successively step up investment, the market's focus is shifting from demand growth itself to whether new supply will change the current tight balance in the HDD industry.

Well-Known Apple Leaker Reveals Apple's Next "Big Thing": First Siri AI Home Hub and Touchscreen MacBook Pro Could Arrive as Early as October

Mark Gurman, an Apple product leaker who has accurately revealed iPhone update details ahead of time on multiple occasions, dropped several major exclusives in succession: a touchscreen MacBook Pro could debut as early as October, Apple's smart home hub has "already been stocked in warehouses worldwide," the upgrade value of the iPhone 18 Pro is questionable, and Apple is replacing traditional media coverage with influencer marketing. Gurman revealed that Apple's internally codenamed "J490" AI Smart Home Hub will be the key breakthrough. "This is Apple's next 'Big Thing,' and it's only weeks away from launch," Gurman stressed. He pointed out that Apple's past attempts in the smart home space, such as the iPod Hi-Fi and the early HomePod, were "half-finished products," but J490 will completely change that. The device is described as "an Amazon Echo Show made by Apple in the Apple universe," equipped with an approximately 6-inch square touchscreen. Its biggest selling point lies in an entirely new operating system. "If Siri AI had an operating system, rather than merely being an app or interface on a phone, what would it look like? This is the answer," Gurman quoted the original words as saying, noting that the system combines features of Watch OS and StandBy mode, and that "voice will become the primary interface interaction element."

Broadcom's (AVGO.US) Bank Syndicate Reportedly Moving to Raise $60 Billion to Supply Chip "Ammunition" for Anthropic and Others

People familiar with the matter said Broadcom (AVGO.US)'s Wall Street bank syndicate is moving to raise $60 billion in new financing for artificial intelligence chip purchases, with beneficiaries set to include Anthropic PBC and other companies. The people said banks participating in the massive debt package are preparing to send a syndication letter for a $42 billion Class A senior secured loan. Because the deal has not been announced, these people requested anonymity. The people said Blackstone (BX.US) is leading a $18 billion Class B subordinated debt tranche, committing $9 billion from several of its funds and planning to syndicate the remainder. The financing has reportedly been in the works for weeks and is being closely watched by Wall Street and Silicon Valley professionals to gauge whether investors remain eager to support AI infrastructure buildout at a time when data center construction is facing public opposition. Broadcom wants to sell more chips and other data center equipment to challenge Nvidia (NVDA.US), while AI companies such as Anthropic need to continuously expand computing power. People familiar with the matter said in August that the potential transaction would help companies such as Anthropic obtain chips and other critical AI infrastructure.

Google's (GOOGL.US) Ad Tech Monopoly Damages Case Cleared to Proceed: Publishers May Seek More Than $3.2 Billion Combined

A federal judge in New York ruled that USA Today Co., Daily Mail General and Trust Plc, and a class of large publishers may seek more than $3.2 billion in damages over harm caused by Alphabet (GOOGL.US) unit Google's monopoly of the advertising technology market. In an opinion issued Wednesday evening local time, US District Judge P. Kevin Castel in Manhattan said he would allow a jury trial on how Google's conduct related to its ad exchange AdX harmed major publishers. He ruled that a class of about 5,000 publishers could seek about $1.7 billion from Google and rejected the company's request to challenge the damages calculation. He found that USA Today and the Daily Mail, which sued separately, would be allowed to seek about $900 million and $600 million, respectively. Google said in a statement that the ruling also dismissed claims by some publishers using different ad-buying tools, and that the company would "defend the rest in court."

Anthropic Reportedly Sets October 14 Pre-IPO Investor Day, Targeting a November Listing

People familiar with the matter said Anthropic PBC is scheduled to meet potential investors on October 14 local time to prepare for its initial public offering, as the company presses ahead with a potential heavyweight listing even amid scrutiny over AI safety. The people said invitations for the event were just sent out recently, and a select group of institutional investors will have the opportunity to question company executives. One of the people said the event will be held at the company's San Francisco headquarters. The timing would put the Claude developer on track for a listing expected in November. According to earlier reports, Anthropic could begin formally marketing the IPO as early as the week of November 9, potentially starting trading before Thanksgiving. The people cautioned that IPO details could still change and requested anonymity because the information is not public. An Anthropic spokesperson declined to comment. People familiar with the matter previously said investors view Anthropic's fair valuation at between $1.8 trillion and $2 trillion. The company expects its IPO size to match or exceed that of SpaceX.

Key Economic Data and Event Preview

Beijing time 20:30: US September unemployment rate; US September seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls (in tens of thousands)

Beijing time 22:00: US August factory orders month over month; 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan delivers welcome remarks at the Fifth Annual Immigration Macroeconomic Impact Symposium

Beijing time 01:00 the next day: Total US oil rig count for the week to October 2 (in units)