Zhitoong Finance APP has learned that the China Index Academy has published an article stating that on August 28, the reform of the commodity housing sales system was officially implemented, with the pre-sale threshold raised to the completion of the main structure, the disbursement of individual mortgage loans postponed to the completion filing stage, and further advancement of completed housing sales.

One month after the implementation of the new policy, judging from September market performance, sales volume and prices have generally continued their previous operating trend, and the direct impact of the policy on the short-term transaction market is not yet obvious. In contrast, some noteworthy changes have already appeared on the supply side and in the land market. Some core cities have accelerated the pace of obtaining pre-sale permits for projects, while real estate enterprises have become more cautious in their investment decisions in the land market.

Sales Side: Short-Term Impact of the New Policy Is Limited, September Market Continues Its Original Bottoming Trend

The August 28 new policy set transitional arrangements for existing projects. For projects that had already obtained pre-sale permits, mortgage disbursement may still follow the original regulations, and projects that had already obtained construction planning permits before the new policy may still proceed under the original pre-sale conditions. Most of the currently on-sale and available housing units were formed before the new policy, so the direct short-term impact on the sales market is relatively limited. Judging from September transactions, the transaction area of newly built commodity residential housing in key cities has continued its previous trend. According to China Index data, from September 1 to 27, the transaction area of newly built commodity residential housing in 30 key cities fell 5.5% year on year, while first-tier cities grew 9% year on year; Beijing and Shanghai, driven by the optimization of demand-side policies in August, saw transaction growth of 18% and 16% respectively year on year. Second-hand residential transactions in 20 key cities reached 104,000 units, up 4.2% year on year, and Shanghai's second-hand housing transaction volume has achieved year-on-year growth for seven consecutive months. At present, the improvement in transactions in core cities is more driven by previous demand-side policies and the traditional "Golden September" sales season. The new housing market in most cities is still in the bottoming stage, and market recovery is mainly concentrated in high-quality segments and projects in core cities.

In terms of prices, some cities have recently seen price adjustments in new housing projects, but these mainly appear as the withdrawal of discounts and adjustments to price differences among different buildings, while projects that have truly directly raised sales prices are still relatively few. The current market has not yet formed a general trend of price increases, and project price adjustments are more local strategic changes made by enterprises based on sales conditions, product differences, and market expectations. Overall, one month after the implementation of the August 28 new policy, the direct impact of the policy on new home transaction volume and prices is relatively limited, and September market performance has basically continued the previous operating trend of bottoming and structural recovery. As completed housing sales and the new pre-sale system are gradually implemented, their impact on homebuyer expectations, project supply, and market transactions still needs further observation in subsequent market operations.

Supply Side: Current Supply Continues to Contract, and the Impact of the New Policy Is Expected to Gradually Appear

In September, the newly launched supply of new homes continued to contract. According to China Index data, from September 1 to 27, the approved launch area of newly built commodity residential housing in 20 cities fell nearly 30% year on year, continuing the supply contraction trend seen since the beginning of this year. However, this change is still mainly the cumulative result of the continued decline in previous land transactions and new construction starts. Only one month after the August 28 new policy took effect, its direct impact on the current scale of new home launches is still relatively small. It is worth noting that some core cities have recently accelerated the pace of obtaining pre-sale permits. Taking Beijing as an example, from September 1 to 27, the number of newly launched homes in Beijing reached 5,272 units, already exceeding the full-month scale of each month this year. Some real estate enterprises are also accelerating construction progress and the pace of obtaining permits. For projects that had already met or were close to meeting pre-sale conditions before the new policy, some companies tend to accelerate permit acquisition and enter the sales stage in order to shorten the capital occupation cycle. This also means that in the short term, the supply side will still be dominated by existing projects, and the new policy has not yet created an obvious supply gap.

From a medium-term perspective, the impact of the new policy on the pace of supply will gradually emerge. Under the original pre-sale model, real estate enterprises could usually enter pre-sale about 6 to 9 months after acquiring land; the new pre-sale model raises the pre-sale node to the completion of the main structure, and for some projects the time from land acquisition to the earliest pre-sale may be extended to 12 to 18 months. As a result, the cycle from land acquisition to the formation of market supply for new projects will be lengthened overall. The impact will not be immediately reflected in this year's supply data, but will gradually appear as projects that obtained land after the new policy enter the development stage. Based on the current development cycle, the impact of the new policy on new supply will gradually strengthen from 2027, and the period around the second quarter can be taken as a key observation window, though the specific transmission pace still depends on local detailed rules and transitional arrangements for projects in progress.

From the perspective of cities, the impact of institutional adjustment on supply and the market differs to some extent. In core first- and second-tier cities with a relatively high proportion of pre-sales, relatively low inventory, and a solid demand base, changes in the pace of new supply may have a more obvious impact on market transactions; in some third- and fourth-tier cities with higher inventory and weaker demand, the scale of newly acquired land in recent years has already been relatively small, and many projects themselves have long development and sales cycles and are in effect close to quasi-completed or completed housing status, so the market impact brought by institutional adjustment is relatively limited. A slowdown in the pace of new supply helps improve supply-demand relations in the short term and provides some room for the destocking of existing projects, but if supply contraction continues, it may also impose certain constraints on the subsequent recovery of new home sales scale.

Local Detailed Rules: Beijing Clarifies Transitional Arrangements for Projects in Progress, While Mortgage Lending Remains Relatively Strict

On September 24, Beijing took the lead in issuing local implementation opinions for the August 28 new policy, making specific arrangements for pre-sale management, completed housing sales, fund supervision, and housing credit. In terms of the division between new and old projects, for projects that had obtained (including partially obtained) construction planning permits before August 28 (inclusive) but had not yet obtained pre-sale permits, the original pre-sale conditions may still apply (consistent with national policy); for projects that had acquired land before August 28 (inclusive) (including those under transfer) but had not yet obtained construction planning permits, pre-sale management shall in principle be carried out as new projects. Only when the district government ensures that construction and delivery can be completed on time and files with the municipal department may they still apply for pre-sale under the original pre-sale conditions before the end of 2027. This provision gives the supply pace of projects in progress a buffer, but the buffer is limited to the pre-sale threshold, while fund supervision and mortgage disbursement remain relatively strict. For new projects, Beijing clearly requires that pre-sale must occur after the main structure of a single building is capped and acceptance records signed by five parties are obtained. Pre-sale funds are subject to full-amount and whole-process supervision, and supervision may only be lifted after joint acceptance of the project. In terms of mortgage disbursement, for projects that obtained pre-sale permits after August 28, individual housing mortgage loans (including housing provident fund loans) may only be disbursed after completion filing, and loan funds enter the pre-sale fund supervision account through entrusted payment. In terms of completed housing sales, commodity housing projects for which land transfer announcements are newly issued from August 28 onward shall give priority to completed housing sales, and the sold housing and construction land use rights must be free of mortgage and seizure; development enterprises may sign deposit contracts with buyers after obtaining construction permits, and the deposit generally shall not exceed 1% of the total housing price. In terms of land payments, for commodity residential land for which transfer announcements are issued after August 28, the transfer price may be paid in installments, with the first payment of no less than 50% within 30 days from the date of contract signing, and the remaining amount paid in full within two years without interest, providing some buffer for the funding arrangements of new projects.

Overall, Beijing's detailed rules did not change the basic direction of the August 28 new policy of raising the pre-sale threshold, postponing mortgage disbursement, and promoting completed housing sales. The focus is to smooth the pace of existing supply and the funding pressure of new projects through arrangements such as transition for projects in progress and interest-free installment payment of land costs, while maintaining the bottom line of full closed-loop supervision of funds to protect homebuyer rights. Beijing's real estate policy has historically had strong benchmark significance, and its specific implementation approach also provides an important reference for detailed rules in other core cities.

Land Market: Corporate Bidding Becomes More Cautious, Investment Logic Begins to Adjust, and the Year-End Land Supply Peak Is an Important Observation Window

Compared with the transaction market, the impact of the August 28 new policy on the land market has already shown some signs. Since August 31, the overall premium rate for residential land transactions in 300 cities has been lower than the previous level. According to China Index data, in the four weeks after the new policy (August 31 to September 27), residential land transfer revenue in 300 cities was 47.2 billion yuan, 23.9 billion yuan, 20.3 billion yuan, and 44.7 billion yuan respectively; average premium rates were 5.2%, 7.5%, 3.7%, and 4.9%, among which the premium rate in the second week was mainly driven by a single high-quality plot in Shenzhen, and was only 1.1% after excluding it. Since September (1 to 27), the total planned construction area transacted in 300 cities was 29.82 million square meters, land transfer revenue was 115.5 billion yuan, and the average premium rate was 6.0%, down from August, with most cities mainly seeing transactions at reserve price or low premium. It should be noted that most land transacted in September had already been announced before the August 28 new policy, and corporate land acquisition decisions were also mainly formed before the policy took effect, so the current land market performance more reflects enterprises' preliminary assessment of the new policy's impact.

Judging from recently transacted plots, real estate enterprises have paid somewhat more attention to project certainty. High-quality and scarce plots in core cities still have a certain appeal, and some low-floor-area-ratio improvement-type plots can still attract corporate attention because their development pace is relatively controllable and product premium space is relatively large; at the same time, methods such as lower total plot prices, regional deepening, and joint land acquisition have also increased. Overall, enterprises are more cautious in estimating future sales speed and prices, and are paying more attention to development cycles, capital occupation, and project destocking certainty. Against this background, corporate bidding strategies have become more cautious, and the land premium space for some projects has been somewhat constrained.

Table: Premium residential plots in core first- and second-tier cities after the August 28 new policy (August 31 to September 27). Data source: China Index Data CREIS.

From the land supply side, local governments are also adjusting land transfer conditions to provide some funding buffer for project development under the new model. According to China Index monitoring, from August 31 to September 27, cities such as Xiamen, Lishui, and Jiangmen have launched completed housing sales plots, and some plots are also accompanied by arrangements such as installment payment of land costs. On September 24, Xiamen's first completed housing sales residential plot after the August 28 new policy was transacted, acquired by Jianfa at the reserve price. At the same time, Beijing has canceled the transfer of 3 residential land plots in September, and cities such as Xi'an, Chengdu, and Fuzhou have also seen individual plots terminate transfer, indicating that the land market's adaptation to the new sales system is gradually unfolding.

Table: Some completed housing sales plots after the August 28 new policy (August 31 to September 27). Data source: China Index Data CREIS.

In addition, it is worth noting that the year-end is usually the concentrated period for residential land supply for the whole year. According to China Index data, in November and December of 2023, 2024, and 2025, residential land transfer revenue in 300 cities accounted for 34.8%, 44.3%, and 34.7% of the full-year total, respectively, so land market transactions at year-end have strong observational significance. Local detailed rules for the new policy are required to be issued within the year. Policies such as the minimum delivery unit, installment payment of land costs, and transitional arrangements will directly determine real estate enterprises' future strategies and land acquisition capacity, and in turn affect new supply in 2027 and beyond.

Real Estate Enterprises: Business Models Accelerate Adjustment, with Greater Emphasis on Cash Flow and Project Certainty

The August 28 new policy changed the capital turnover rhythm of commodity housing from development and construction to sales and cash collection. Under the traditional pre-sale model, real estate enterprises could recover part of development funds through earlier sales and mortgage receipts and further invest them in subsequent construction and land acquisition; as the pre-sale node and mortgage disbursement move further back, the project capital occupation cycle is correspondingly lengthened, and real estate enterprises need to rearrange the pace of project construction, sales, and fund use. For existing projects, under the transitional policy arrangements for old and new projects, some projects may still continue the original pre-sale conditions, and the direct impact of the policy on project development pace is relatively limited, but changes in mortgage disbursement nodes will still affect the pace of capital recovery, and enterprises need to make sound project funding arrangements. For newly acquired land projects, investment calculations need to be redone according to the new sales system, with greater attention to development cycles, capital occupation, sales collection pace, and project destocking certainty, and when acquiring land, considerations of regional market fundamentals, plot location, product competitiveness, and total project investment scale will also be more comprehensive. At the same time, under completed housing sales, the final product quality presented by a project is more closely linked to sales performance, and enterprises need to place greater emphasis on product design and delivery quality during project positioning and development.

Overall, the August 28 new policy is pushing real estate enterprises' operating logic further away from reliance on pre-sales and rapid turnover toward greater emphasis on full-cycle project management, cash flow safety, and development certainty.

Summary

In summary, one month after the implementation of the August 28 new policy, the direct impact on the market transaction side is relatively limited, and September's new home transaction volume and price performance generally continued the previous bottoming trend. The supply side is still in the process of contraction, but the current change is mainly the cumulative result of previous contraction in land and construction starts, and the impact of the new policy has not yet been fully reflected. In contrast, the land market has already shown some more direct changes. Real estate enterprises are paying more attention to project certainty, development cycles, and capital occupation when acquiring land, and local governments have also begun to adjust land supply conditions through methods such as completed housing sales and installment payment of land costs. In the fourth quarter, key attention should be paid to the implementation of local detailed rules and the linkage between old and new projects, supporting arrangements such as mortgage disbursement nodes and the minimum delivery unit, as well as year-end land supply and corporate land acquisition. The former will affect the actual degree of policy transmission in different cities, while the latter is an important window for observing changes in new supply in 2027.