Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is pulling every lever at the department's disposal to curb rising bond yields, yet traders across major prediction markets believe these efforts are unlikely to trigger a significant decline.

On the Kalshi platform, speculators are assigning a 56% probability that the 10-year Treasury yield will reach or exceed 4.75% by the end of 2026, while the odds of it breaking past 5% stand at just 27%. During midday trading on Monday, the 10-year yield was hovering near 4.70%.

Kalshi has rolled out multiple contracts allowing traders to wager on the closing level of the 10-year yield on December 31, with settlements tied to official data from the U.S. Treasury. However, trading volumes remain thin, with total turnover barely exceeding $16,500.

Meanwhile, traders on Polymarket are pricing in a two-thirds chance that the 10-year yield will breach the 4.8% threshold at some point during 2026, a level that has remained untested even amid the recent bond selloff. Polymarket's contracts also rely on official Treasury data for settlement.

Last week, bonds came under heavy selling pressure as markets weighed the risk that the unresolved U.S.-Iran conflict could stoke inflation. Adding to the strain, total U.S. government debt has now surpassed $40 trillion, putting further upward pressure on domestic bond yields.

In response to the selloff, the Treasury announced an expansion of its bond buyback operations to help stabilize the market. Yields initially dipped following the announcement, but rebounded higher within just a few days.

On Monday, reports citing senior Treasury officials suggested the department may consider tapping its General Account (TGA) to fund the enhanced buyback program. Yields again briefly retreated on the news, yet prediction market traders are betting that this decline will prove just as fleeting as the last, with the upward trajectory set to resume once more.