Abstract

NOV Inc will report fourth-quarter results on February 04, 2026 Post Market. This preview compiles the company’s last reported quarter, the current-quarter consensus and company projections where available, and a synthesis of institutional views published in January 2026, with a focus on revenue, margin, and EPS trajectories.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the current quarter points to revenue of $2.17 billion, a decline of 3.26% year over year, with EBIT of $0.16 billion and EPS of $0.25, reflecting a forecast EPS contraction of 32.08% year over year. Company trend data imply a softer gross profit margin versus the prior year but stable-to-moderate mid-teens levels; net margin is projected to remain low single-digits with limited expansion potential, and adjusted EPS is expected to remain constrained.

The core Energy Equipment and the Energy Products & Services portfolios are expected to see subdued activity into early 2026, with offshore and international markets providing relative resilience. The most promising area remains Energy Equipment with $1.25 billion of last-quarter revenue and steadier international demand, while Energy Products & Services posted $0.97 billion last quarter but faces near-term North American softness.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, NOV Inc reported revenue of $2.18 billion, a gross profit margin of 18.93%, net profit attributable to shareholders of $0.04 billion, a net profit margin of 1.93%, and adjusted EPS of $0.11, with year-over-year declines in profitability metrics. The company’s net profit fell sequentially, with quarter-on-quarter net profit declining by 61.11%, reflecting mix and margin pressure alongside cost absorption.

Within the main businesses, Energy Equipment generated $1.25 billion and Energy Products & Services delivered $0.97 billion, with a consolidation offset of -$0.04 billion; international demand offset weaker North American activity, and revenue was essentially flat year over year.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business trajectory and volume/margin dynamics

NOV Inc’s core businesses are positioned for a measured quarter where revenue compression is expected to be modest but visible. The company’s prior-quarter gross margin of 18.93% establishes a baseline that suggests gross margin for the current quarter could remain in the high teens, albeit with downside risk from product mix and pricing pressure in shorter-cycle North American offerings. With the consensus revenue at $2.17 billion and EBIT at $0.16 billion, implied operating profitability remains positive but subdued, aligning with the low single-digit net margin profile observed recently. The key swing factors for the main businesses are backlog conversion in capital equipment and the cadence of aftermarket/service orders; a steadier international mix should mitigate volatility in North American land markets, but it may not fully offset lower activity levels and pricing headwinds in select product lines.

Most promising business and incremental growth catalysts

Energy Equipment, which generated $1.25 billion last quarter, remains the segment with the highest potential to drive upside as international and offshore project activity stay comparatively resilient. The company’s ability to convert backlog and deliver on long-cycle projects supports revenue visibility into early 2026, with parts, spares, and upgrades providing recurring revenue streams that bolster margin consistency. An improving offshore tender environment and increasing utilization of existing assets can further enhance aftermarket intensity, which typically carries favorable mix effects. If the company maintains disciplined execution and supply chain stability, Energy Equipment can sustain revenue near recent levels even as broader market activity cools, offering a firmer underpinning for cash generation and EBITDA.

Key stock price drivers this quarter

The largest drivers for the stock in this print will be the magnitude of margin progression, the quality of mix within orders and shipments, and guidance tone for early 2026. Investors will focus on whether gross margin holds near the 18.93% prior-quarter level or shows deterioration, given the consensus for softer EPS at $0.25 and EBIT at $0.16 billion; sustained gross margin resilience would support a path toward stabilizing net margin from the recent 1.93% level. Order intake and book-to-bill across core equipment categories will be scrutinized to assess durability through mid-2026, especially as North American drilling and completion activity indicators have softened into the winter months while offshore and Middle East projects remain constructive. Finally, management’s commentary on capital discipline, cost actions, and working capital efficiency will frame cash conversion and set expectations for free cash flow seasonality across the first half of 2026.

Analyst Opinions

Across January 2026 publications, institutional views were mixed-to-positive, with a slight tilt toward constructive stances among large brokerages that reiterated or maintained Buy/Overweight opinions, while a minority maintained Sell or Underweight views. The bullish cohort emphasizes sustainable international/offshore momentum within Energy Equipment, backlog support, and the potential for margin stability despite softer North American activity; the bearish side cites near-term EPS compression and limited catalysts for rapid net margin expansion.

Among notable institutions, Morgan Stanley reiterated a positive stance in January 2026, highlighting the supportive offshore cycle and stable international demand as factors that can underpin Energy Equipment performance and operational leverage as supply chains normalize. Susquehanna maintained a Buy view, noting that execution on backlog conversion and aftermarket strength could mitigate revenue softness and help protect gross margin levels in the high-teens range. RBC Capital reiterated an Outperform, pointing to tangible project visibility and the prospect for orders in specific international markets to sustain mid-cycle revenue across 2026. On the more cautious side, Barclays maintained a Sell view in early January 2026, focusing on North American exposure, EPS headwinds implied by the $0.25 consensus, and the risk that net margins remain constrained near recent low single-digit levels absent a stronger pricing or volume recovery.

Weighting these perspectives, Buy/Overweight opinions form a narrow majority relative to Hold and Sell ratings in January 2026 commentary, with the constructive case centered on Energy Equipment’s durability and improving offshore capital spending. The market is likely to reward evidence of gross margin holding near the prior quarter’s 18.93% and indications that backlog conversion remains on track, while any shortfall in EBIT relative to the $0.16 billion consensus or a guide that implies incremental margin erosion would skew sentiment toward the cautious camp. If management can pair stable gross margins with positive order commentary and disciplined cost control, analysts anticipate that EPS could track toward or modestly above the $0.25 marker over the coming quarters, even as revenue remains around $2.17 billion in the near term.