Earning Preview: HudBay Minerals this quarter’s revenue is expected to increase by 21.83%, and institutional views are predominantly bullish

Abstract

HudBay Minerals will report quarterly results on February 20, 2026 Pre-Market, with consensus pointing to a sizable year-over-year rebound in earnings metrics and revenue as investors focus on operational delivery, realized metal prices, and cost discipline into the print.

Market Forecast

The market’s current expectations for HudBay Minerals this quarter imply notable year-over-year growth: revenue is projected at 733.29 million, up 21.83% year-over-year; EBIT is estimated at 281.62 million, up 27.11% year-over-year; and EPS is forecast at 0.40, up 85.33% year-over-year. Forecasts for gross profit margin and net profit or net margin were not disclosed. The company’s main revenue drivers remain copper and gold concentrates, which together delivered the majority of last quarter’s sales and should continue to anchor performance if production and shipment cadence remain steady. Copper appears to be the most promising segment in the near term, with last quarter revenue of 178.80 million and a likely outsized contribution to the forecasted total revenue growth of 21.83% year-over-year.

Last Quarter Review

In the most recent quarter, HudBay Minerals reported revenue of 346.80 million, a gross profit margin of 42.68%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 222.00 million, a net profit margin of 64.13%, and adjusted EPS of 0.03; revenue declined 28.61% year-over-year while adjusted EPS decreased 76.92% year-over-year. Despite the revenue decline, quarter-on-quarter profitability improved materially, with net profit rising 88.95% from the prior quarter, underpinned by reported price and volume adjustments and non-cash items in the period’s revenue composition. The main business mix remained anchored by copper at 178.80 million and gold at 125.50 million, supplemented by molybdenum at 14.00 million, zinc at 9.60 million, and silver at 9.10 million; pricing and volume adjustments contributed 8.80 million and non-cash streaming adjustments added 6.30 million, partially offset by treatment and refining charges of 5.30 million.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core operations and earnings cadence

HudBay Minerals enters this quarter with momentum from meeting full-year copper and gold production goals in 2025, offering a constructive setup for a sequential rebound in financials relative to a soft prior period. The forecast revenue of 733.29 million signals a step-up in shipments and/or realized pricing versus last quarter’s 346.80 million, with EBIT projected to rise to 281.62 million. This dynamic suggests a return to higher throughput and steadier concentrate deliveries after a period affected by timing differences and adjustments that were visible in the prior revenue mix. The earnings bridge implied by estimates points to two key levers: normalized operations and improved realization. With copper and gold comprising the bulk of sales, quarter-specific shipment timing can meaningfully influence reported revenue and cash costs per unit. A relatively benign treatment and refining charge environment, especially if consistent with or better than last quarter’s net impact, can aid gross margin stabilization, even though explicit margin guidance is not provided. The projected EPS of 0.40 compares favorably against last quarter’s 0.03, indicating that operational leverage to volume and pricing remains a central theme in the company’s earnings trajectory this period. From a quality-of-earnings perspective, investors will watch for the extent of provisional pricing adjustments, which can swing reported revenues up or down when prior-period shipments are settled against current prices. The prior quarter included both positive pricing/volume adjustments and non-cash streaming entries. To the extent this quarter’s results reflect fewer such non-recurring factors, the path from EBIT to EPS could appear cleaner, improving investor confidence in the durability of the run-rate. This is particularly relevant as the market digests whether the forecasted step-up in EBIT and EPS is primarily operational or driven by provisional price movements that may not persist.

Most promising business this quarter: Copper

Copper stands out as the most promising business line for HudBay Minerals this quarter, given its dominant revenue share and the company’s recent confirmation of meeting annual production targets. Last quarter, copper generated 178.80 million of revenue, substantially more than gold’s 125.50 million, and more than an order of magnitude above molybdenum, zinc, and silver. With total revenue expected to increase 21.83% year-over-year, copper is well placed to capture a significant portion of that growth if production rates, grades, and recoveries remain consistent with plan and if realized copper prices hold near recent levels through the quarter’s settlement cycle. Operationally, copper sales volumes and realized pricing typically drive the largest swings in HudBay Minerals’ financials on a quarterly basis. When concentrate shipments align smoothly with smelter intake schedules and treatment/refining charges remain manageable, mix and realizations can support robust incremental margins. The company’s prior quarter revenue composition also illustrated the importance of adjustments and settlement timing; a quarter with fewer offsetting charges or less pronounced provisional pricing variability can create a clearer read-through to underlying copper profitability. This is especially important given the implied step-change in EBIT to 281.62 million this quarter, as copper’s margin contribution will likely be pivotal in bridging to the estimated EPS of 0.40. Investors will pay close attention to quarter-specific commentary around copper production cadence, mine sequencing, and any shipment timing effects that may have influenced the quarter. While the forecasts imply a constructive setup, management’s details on throughput, recoveries, concentrate quality, and the status of any logistics bottlenecks will help validate whether the revenue and EBIT expansions are sustainable into subsequent periods. If copper volumes and realizations track in line with internal plans, this quarter’s performance could serve as a reset toward a steadier earnings base.

Key stock price drivers this quarter

The headline drivers for HudBay Minerals’ stock into and through the print will likely revolve around realized metal prices, cost performance, and the clarity of the earnings bridge from revenue to EBIT and EPS. Realized copper and gold prices during the quarter—particularly the settlement of previously provisionally priced shipments—can change the revenue outcome even if mined and milled volumes were largely on plan. Investors will parse whether the quarter’s outcome reflects sustainable operating improvements or the arithmetic of provisional pricing and working capital timing, as the latter can reverse in subsequent periods. Cost control and smelting terms remain crucial to margin resilience. Treatment and refining charges reduced revenue by 5.30 million last quarter, while pricing and volume adjustments added 8.80 million. If reported charges remain contained and the company points to steady unit operating costs, the gross margin could stabilize around last quarter’s 42.68% level or better, even in the absence of formal guidance. Conversely, if one-time items or large provisional swings again dominate the print, the durability of the projected 281.62 million EBIT and 0.40 EPS could be questioned, producing more volatility in the shares post-announcement. Beyond the quarter, strategic developments on the portfolio can shape sentiment. A recently announced option agreement allows JOGMEC to acquire a 10% stake in three exploration-stage projects near Flin Flon (Manitoba), complementing an existing option with Marubeni. While these projects are early-stage and unlikely to affect this quarter’s results, the agreements demonstrate ongoing portfolio advancement in a region where HudBay Minerals has processing infrastructure. Investors may view such partnerships as supportive to longer-term optionality and future throughput potential, while near-term valuation remains anchored by copper and gold cash flow delivery and the company’s ability to convert the forecasted year-over-year growth into cleaner, repeatable earnings.

Analyst Opinions

Recent analyst commentary since January 1, 2026 skews positive ahead of HudBay Minerals’ February 20, 2026 Pre-Market release. UBS maintained a Buy rating while raising its price target to CA$38.50, indicating confidence in the company’s earnings power and capital return potential given improving operational cadence. In contrast, National Bank downgraded the shares to Sector Perform, which briefly pressured the stock as investors assessed the balance between execution progress and valuation. However, the broader backdrop remains supportive: aggregated notes in the period indicate a prevailing Buy stance and a mean price target in the mid-CA$30s, underscoring the constructive majority view on the setup for this quarter’s print. Balancing these perspectives, the majority opinion is bullish. The ratio of bullish to bearish/neutral stances in the period is favorable to the bulls, reflecting expectations that HudBay Minerals can translate its stable production base and copper-led mix into a tangible rebound in earnings metrics this quarter. The implied 21.83% year-over-year revenue increase, 27.11% year-over-year EBIT rise to 281.62 million, and 85.33% year-over-year EPS improvement to 0.40 form the core of the bullish case. Proponents highlight that last quarter’s results, while soft on revenue and EPS year-over-year, already showed quarter-on-quarter net income improvement of 88.95%, and that normalization of shipment timing and lower noise from non-cash adjustments could produce a cleaner and stronger P&L this time. Within this majority view, analysts emphasize three validation points. First, delivery versus the revenue and EPS estimates, where even in-line results would validate the company’s operational reset from last quarter’s low base. Second, margin composition, where stable or improving gross profit conversion relative to last quarter’s 42.68% would support confidence in the EBIT bridge. Third, copper’s contribution, since last quarter copper sales of 178.80 million and gold sales of 125.50 million illustrate the mix sensitivity that can drive upside if realized prices and volumes align with plan. UBS’s target hike to CA$38.50 sits in this context, reflecting conviction that the company can sustain stronger cash flow generation if this quarter’s forecasted step-up is delivered and proves repeatable. In summary, the predominant institutional stance anticipates a constructive quarter, with investors most focused on how much of the anticipated growth is operationally durable versus driven by provisional pricing and accounting adjustments. The bullish camp expects the answer to lean toward operational delivery, especially given the company’s confirmation of meeting production goals and the forecasted expansion in revenue, EBIT, and EPS. Investors will be watching for commentary on shipment timing, cost discipline, and smelting terms to gauge the sustainability of results into the next few quarters. If the company clears these hurdles, the bullish majority sees a pathway to support current targets and maintain positive momentum beyond the February 20, 2026 release.