Goldman Sachs has released a research report stating that Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) fell 1% year-on-year to 18.1 billion patacas in September, broadly in line with the market's lowered expectations.

This represents 82% of the level seen in the same period of 2019, affected by the seasonal lull after the summer holidays and before the National Day Golden Week; it implies that the average daily gaming revenue in the last 10 days of September remained at 587 million patacas, compared with 586 million and 614 million patacas in the previous weeks respectively.

The report noted that cumulative gaming revenue for the third quarter of this year reached 60.2 billion patacas, down 1% quarter-on-quarter and 4% year-on-year, partly reflecting the diversion of some gaming spending during the World Cup in July.

For the first nine months of this year, cumulative gaming revenue rose 3% year-on-year, consistent with the bank's full-year forecast of 3% growth, while the comparison base from November to December will be more favorable.

Meanwhile, the bank expects third-quarter EBITDA to remain relatively stable quarter-on-quarter, and believes that with a lower base for gaming revenue and daily operating expenses, particularly in November and December, the fourth quarter could see a more meaningful valuation re-rating.

The bank believes current sector valuations remain attractive; based on trends quarter-to-date in the third quarter, it believes Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd (ASX: 00027) may significantly gain gaming revenue market share, while Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd (MLCO.US) market share may come under pressure.