蒙特利尔银行倾向于加拿大央行9月降息 因就业报告"异常疲弱"——市场观察

投资观察
Sep 06

蒙特利尔银行Capital Markets调整了对加拿大利率前景的看法,认为在经济数据疲弱的情况下,加拿大央行需要降息25个基点。首席经济学家Doug Porter在给客户的周末报告中写道:"异常疲弱的加拿大就业报告强势介入讨论,几乎没有留下疑虑。"

8月就业数据显示,当月失业人数接近66,000人,失业率升至9年来最高水平,不包括新冠疫情期间。Porter表示,可能阻碍降息的因素包括顽固的核心通胀以及一些央行官员认为利率尚未达到限制性水平的观点。Porter说,就业市场疲弱最终应该会缓解定价压力。

蒙特利尔银行预计,加拿大央行政策利率将从目前的2.75%水平在2025年底降至2%。

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