UBS has issued a research report slightly lowering the target price for BUD APAC (01876) from HK$8.75 to HK$8.6, while maintaining a "Buy" rating. BUD APAC's 2025 revenue and normalized EBITDA fell by 6.1% and 9.8% year-on-year, respectively, to US$5.764 billion and US$1.588 billion, missing market expectations. This implies that fourth-quarter 2025 revenue and normalized EBITDA declined by 4.2% and 24.7% year-on-year, respectively, to US$1.073 billion and US$167 million.

The company's full-year normalized EBITDA margin contracted by 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous year, primarily due to a decrease in gross margin and an increase in the selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A) ratio. Net profit for the period was US$489 million, impacted by a non-recurring item related to a customs audit claim and taxes in South Korea, which the bank views as a one-time factor.

UBS has raised its revenue forecasts for BUD APAC for 2026 to 2028 by 2% to 3%, mainly reflecting an expected appreciation of the Renminbi. However, it anticipates a slower recovery in sales volume in the Chinese market, potentially delayed until the second half of 2026. Concurrently, the bank has reduced its EBITDA forecasts for 2026 to 2028 by 6% to 7%, citing operational deleveraging and increased commercial investments, which are expected to lower the EBITDA margin by 2.5 to 2.8 percentage points.