The 2026 spring market rally represents a renewed resonance between "new quality productive forces" and "marginal improvements in global liquidity." Recent market adjustments and volatility resemble "a car reversing to pick up passengers," presenting an opportunity to focus on key areas of the "15th Five-Year Plan" and Chinese assets with global competitiveness.
I. AI Sector: Separating Wheat from Chaff, Not Game Over - Correction Signals Repricing Core Logic: Short-term volatility should not obscure the view that the AI technology revolution remains in its "infrastructure construction phase," with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cutting cycle continuing, analogous to the 1997-98 internet wave rather than the 1999-2000 bubble.
The current correction reflects market adjustments to the old narrative of "massive capital expenditure for efficiency gains" and adaptation to the new "Agent disruption" narrative, combined with risk preference changes triggered by Fed personnel nominations. We judge this to be more about position and valuation digestion after crowded trading rather than an industry trend reversal. As long as computing power investments continue translating into product iterations and genuine demand, the correction represents repricing and restarting after separating substance from hype.
1. Massive Capital Expenditure Signals AI Wave Momentum: US six major tech giants are projected to reach $650 billion in capital expenditure for 2026 (a 55% year-on-year surge from a high base), while China's four internet giants show 77% capital expenditure growth.
2. Qualitative Shift from "Conversational Toy" to "Production Tool": 2026 will be the "implementation year" for Agents and multimodality, with AI evolving into "digital employees" capable of directly intervening in workflows with planning and execution abilities. Meanwhile, capital market pricing anchors for AI are shifting toward "commercialization efficiency and billable scenarios."
II. Liquidity Outlook: Post-Spring Festival Thawing Period Core Logic: Liquidity serves as the oxygen for stock markets. After the Spring Festival, Chinese and US liquidity environments may resonate, providing momentum for the spring rally.
1. United States: Post-Warsh Nomination Jitters and Recovery: We believe Fed policy will tend toward easing rather than tightening in 2026, with short-term policy focus more likely on rate cuts than balance sheet reduction. As markets complete pricing of the new chair's style, US dollar strength appears unsustainable. The correction in US tech stocks represents more technical adjustment, and global risk preference should rebound as VIX volatility subsides.
2. China: From Visible Hand Intervention to Endogenous Liquidity: The People's Bank of China has clearly maintained an "appropriately accommodative" monetary policy stance. January saw approximately 1 trillion yuan in medium-to-long-term liquidity injections through MLF and outright reverse repos, effectively stabilizing market expectations. Throughout 2026, monetary policy maintains further easing space with continued low-interest rate environment, strengthening the mainland asset scarcity logic and solid liquidity support for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks.
Post-Spring Festival Outlook: Historical patterns show returning capital after the holiday, combined with RMB appreciation (approximately 5% against a currency basket), enhancing foreign capital回流 momentum. Institutionalization continues for insurance funds (30% allocation guidance for new premiums) and public fund medium-to-long-term capital entering markets. With risk-free rates at low levels, the major trend of household deposits shifting toward "institutionalization and equityization" remains irreversible.
Chinese stocks offer attractive valuations: MSCI China PB ratio stands at merely 1.69x, significantly below the emerging market average of 2.80x; S&P 500's forward 12-month PE premium over MSCI China exceeds 80%, placing Chinese assets in highly attractive allocation territory. Particularly, Hong Kong stocks possess subsequent "short cover" momentum, with short selling turnover ratio retreating after hitting 21% historical high on February 5 but still hovering around 18% highs.
During February-March 2026, Chinese stocks will experience dual drivers of "sentiment recovery" and "capital replenishment." China's "Two Sessions expectations" and US "rate cut expectations" may reignite—becoming key variables influencing global capital flows and risk preferences after Spring Festival, further highlighting Chinese assets' (particularly Hong Kong stocks) allocation appeal. The spring rally warrants anticipation.
III. Market Outlook: Spring Flowers Bloom, Chinese Stocks to Rise Amid Volatility Core Logic: After risk clearance, market style will become clearer. Instead of fixating on short-term fluctuations, focus should remain on industrial trends under the "15th Five-Year Plan."
Investment Recommendations: Advance Steadily or Even Crawl Forward - Growth Embraces "15th Five-Year Plan," Value Sees "Old Trees Blooming Anew"
1. Future Industries: Era Beta - commercial space, space computing, controllable nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence and other frontier fields where policy and industrial catalysts resonate, requiring careful selection. Policy support for "future industries" will exceed expectations, representing 2026's most imaginative market theme.
2. Tech Manufacturing: a) AI hardware, computing power and related industrial chains: optical interconnection, storage, computing power, equipment (front-end + testing), cooling (liquid cooling + silicon carbide), etc. b) Midstream high-end manufacturing and equipment: batteries, wind power equipment, specialized equipment, benefiting from manufacturing upgrades, new energy industry chain expansion and inventory replenishment.
3. AI Application Frontier: AI Agent and multimodal applications expected to continue developing during Spring Festival, focusing on film/entertainment, gaming and IP产业链, e-commerce and local services; along with humanoid robot themes. This represents not just traffic business but the beginning of business model reconstruction.
4. Gold and Gold Stocks: Short-term consolidation expected to continue, more suitable for contrarian operations. Gold's long-term logic as strategic asset remains unchanged: order reshaping and monetary turbulence under high debt. Although gold's "speculative froth" has significantly receded, substantial accumulated profits over past two years still require digestion time.
5. Screening Cyclical Sectors: Under "anti-involution" and "going global" logic, select internationally competitive leaders in chemicals, engineering machinery, construction materials; under domestic demand stabilization logic, choose non-bank financials, food/beverage, catering, tourism, duty-free sector leaders as core holdings awaiting earnings recovery.
2026 markets present more opportunities than risks. After short-term bumps often come new rising waves. Let us base ourselves on Chinese advantages, embrace technological transformation, and sow hopes in spring.
Risk提示: Geopolitical conflicts and trade friction risks; Fed rate cuts falling short of expectations risks; China's economic recovery pace and debt resolution risks.