Market Review Week of 2026/05/11-2026/05/15 Last week, spot gold opened at $4686.15 per ounce, reached a high of $4773.58, and closed at $4539.39, marking a weekly decline of 3.7%. Spot silver opened at $79.428 per ounce, hit a high of $89.369, and settled at $75.894, resulting in a weekly loss of 5.48%.

Precious metals experienced a rally and subsequent decline last week. Early in the week, Peru's energy crisis decree, which restricts industrial power supply and is expected to impact production of key minerals like silver, triggered a 7% intraday surge in silver, breaking above the $82.5 resistance level, with gold following higher. However, the upward momentum faded. Gold failed to break through the $4800 resistance, retreating to fluctuate around $4700, while silver peaked near $89.4 before encountering resistance and pulling back. On the 13th, despite a high-profile visit, market-moving developments were limited. Concurrently, driven by multiple headwinds including a tech stock pullback and weakened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, precious metals saw significant declines on Thursday and Friday. Ultimately, gold closed at $4539.4 and silver at $75.89.

Looking ahead, the $4500 level represents a key cost baseline from central bank purchases in April, suggesting potential support for strategic accumulation. Other macro factors, such as geopolitics and U.S. fiscal policy, show no significant improvement, thus the medium-to-long-term bullish trend remains intact.

This week, key focuses include developments in Iran, international oil price movements, the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting, a high-profile diplomatic visit, and the release of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes. Gold price volatility is expected to trend higher this week, suggesting a strategy of light positioning with flexible entry and exit.

Overseas ETF Holdings SPDR Gold ETF Holdings As of 2026/05/15, holdings in the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, stood at 1037.42 tonnes, with a net increase of 3.42 tonnes for the week.

iShares Silver ETF (SLV) Holdings As of 2026/05/15, iShares Silver ETF holdings were 15222.81 tonnes, with a net increase of 174.51 tonnes for the week.

CFTC Gold Positioning CFTC Silver Positioning

Both gold and silver ETFs saw net inflows last week. Gold's allocation demand appears supported. Investors are advised to participate with light positions and flexible timing.

Futures-Cash Basis Situation Last week, the gold futures-cash basis fluctuated around 1.5 yuan/gram, reaching a high of 2.16 yuan/gram and a low of 0.74 yuan/gram, closing at 1.07 yuan/gram. As interbank funding rates declined, positioning for a narrowing spread on rallies is suggested.

Shanghai Gold Main Contract vs. Spot Basis (As of May 15, 2026) The silver futures-cash basis narrowed last week, with a high of 55 yuan/kilogram, a low of -9 yuan/kilogram, and a close of 12 yuan/kilogram. Cautious participation is advised.

Shanghai Silver Main Contract vs. Spot Basis (As of May 15, 2026) Domestic-International Spread Situation The gold domestic-international spread widened last week, peaking at 4.22 yuan/gram, bottoming at 1.69 yuan/gram, and closing at 3.53 yuan/gram. Cautious participation is advised, with a focus on opportunities to position for a narrowing spread on rallies.

Gold Domestic-International Spread (As of May 15, 2026) The silver domestic-international spread narrowed last week, reaching a high of 2476 yuan/kilogram, a low of 2086 yuan/kilogram, and closing at 2090 yuan/kilogram. Cautious participation is advised.

Silver Domestic-International Spread (As of May 15, 2026) Deferred Delivery Situation

Last week, short positions dominated gold deferred contracts, while long positions dominated silver deferred contracts. Given the low interest rate and inventory environment, investors are advised to monitor shifts in long/short positioning and consider appropriate long-oriented exposure.

Disclaimer: This report does not constitute investment advice. Investors should independently and prudently assess their own risk tolerance and financial situation to make appropriate investment choices. END