货币政策分析公司经济学家Derek Tang指出,在即将于下周结束的四月议息会议后,美联储的政策声明可能出现微妙但关键的调整。鉴于当前多项就业市场平衡指标已接近零增长阈值,Tang认为联储可能通过删除"就业增长速度"相关表述,转而强调失业率指标,从而降低就业数据在决策中的权重。
更值得关注的是,Tang预测美联储或暗示其对下一步利率行动的确定性正在降低。此前声明中关于联邦基金利率"进一步调整"的措辞,可能修正为"任何调整",这预示着继去年12月降息后,下一次利率变动未必会延续同一方向。这一措辞转变将释放出更为灵活的政策信号,为潜在的双向利率调整埋下伏笔。
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