Despite gold's recent pullback from a record high of $5,600 per ounce, analysts at ANZ suggest the dip may attract fresh investment, citing persistent structural support and few signs of a trend reversal. They project prices will reach $5,800 per ounce by the second quarter of 2026. As of the latest update, spot gold was trading near $4,970.45 per ounce, up approximately 1%.
ANZ analysts Sony Kumari and Daniel Hynes noted in a report that accommodative U.S. monetary policy, escalating geopolitical tensions, ongoing policy uncertainty, and a weaker U.S. dollar indicate that the current gold rally differs fundamentally from the speculative peaks seen in 1980 or 2013. The present uptrend is largely driven by deeper structural demand.
In particular, global defensive sentiment toward U.S. dollar credit risk is prompting central banks and institutional investors to steadily diversify asset allocations and reduce reliance on a single reserve currency. Gold’s role as the "ultimate safe-haven asset" remains irreplaceable in the current macroeconomic environment. Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s independence and monetary policy uncertainty provide long-term risk premium support for gold prices.
Although recent nominations for the Fed chair have temporarily eased extreme market concerns over administrative interference in monetary policy, underlying pressures on U.S. sovereign credit continue to unsettle global investors. In this context, while the cost of holding physical gold is influenced by interest rate conditions, its value as a credit hedge is being reassessed.
It is understood that Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair triggered one of the most severe sell-offs in the gold market in decades. ANZ analysts stated, "If Warsh is confirmed by the Senate, it could signal a shift toward a 'moderately hawkish' stance at the Fed, as he advocates for a more constrained balance sheet. His nomination has partly eased market concerns over the Fed’s future independence—which had previously supported gold prices."
ANZ also highlighted that ongoing industrial supply shortages in the silver market are expected to keep it closely linked to gold prices, jointly boosting the overall performance of the precious metals sector. The analysts noted, "Silver prices will remain anchored to gold’s gains. We expect silver to underperform gold, implying the gold-silver ratio will revert to a mean of 70:1."
Recent market volatility has led exchanges to raise margin requirements, posing challenges to market liquidity and exacerbating price swings. Despite the recent fluctuations raising questions about whether gold has peaked, analysts believe "the current rally is not yet mature enough to reverse in the near term."
Market attention is increasingly turning to the potential impact of tariffs, which has not yet been fully reflected in economic or inflation data. Persistent concerns over the Fed’s future credibility are creating an environment that could boost investor demand for tangible assets like gold.
As a result, ANZ reaffirmed gold’s core position as an "insurance asset" against multiple uncertainties and emphasized that the current retreat from record highs presents an opportunity for new capital to enter the market. The bank’s analysts simultaneously raised their Q2 2026 gold price target from a previous forecast of $5,400 per ounce to $5,800 per ounce.
Bullish sentiment toward precious metals is now widely shared among major Wall Street investment banks. While Goldman Sachs has set a year-end 2026 target of $5,400, UBS and JPMorgan have issued more aggressive projections of $6,200 and $6,300, respectively.