Data from Woofun AI indicates that Bitcoin's realized market capitalization trend has reversed, marking a notable deceleration in the speed at which new capital is entering the market. Despite consecutive days of significant outflows from US spot ETFs, Bitcoin's price has held near key support levels, and the overall market structure has not collapsed due to short-term liquidity contraction.
Glassnode figures show that, as of September 14, Bitcoin's realized market cap had maintained an upward trajectory for 27 straight days, but on September 15 it recorded its first negative growth. This metric calculates the total on-chain valuation of Bitcoin that has transacted recently, reflecting changes in the capital position of holders as assets are transferred at different prices, rather than serving as a simple measure of market value.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $76,500, and this inflection point implies that the on-chain valuation tied to recent transactions has declined. However, this does not equate to an equivalent amount of capital exiting the market; instead, it reveals a dynamic adjustment in the cost basis structure of holders.
Where things stand now
Data compiled by Woofun AI, based on ETF flow statistics from Farside Investors, further corroborates the softening demand: September 15 saw a net outflow of $450.4 million, followed by an additional $295.9 million on September 16, bringing the two-day total net outflow to $746.3 million.
Despite multiple market pressures and macro-level selling following the Federal Reserve's September policy decision, Bitcoin's price remains near the $76,700 "real market average" defined by Glassnode, which represents the average price paid by active investors. Even as other cryptocurrencies faced sell-offs, Bitcoin's decline has been limited, showcasing considerable price resilience.
Key levels to watch
From a structural perspective, $71,300 constitutes the next short-term holder cost basis, while the $62,000 to $65,000 range forms a broader support zone. These on-chain reference points are not absolute price floors but rather critical coordinates for assessing market health.
If Bitcoin can rebound above $76,700, with two consecutive daily closes above the real market average, accompanied by improving capital inflow conditions, it would confirm a return of fresh capital and drive the price back into its previous trading range.