Rebar Market Review

Rebar futures experienced marginal price fluctuations during the previous trading session, with the October 2610 contract settling at 3,071 yuan per tonne, a modest gain of 5 yuan or 0.16% from the prior close, while open interest decreased by 103,000 lots. Spot prices held steady with subdued trading activity; Tangshan Qian'an plain billet remained flat at 3,000 yuan per tonne, and Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar prices were unchanged at 3,100 yuan per tonne, with national construction material transaction volumes reaching 91,100 tonnes.

According to the China Iron and Steel Association, mid-August data shows key steel enterprises produced 19.65 million tonnes of crude steel, averaging 1.965 million tonnes per day, a daily decline of 0.4% month-on-month. Steel inventory reached 18.33 million tonnes, increasing by 1.15 million tonnes or 6.7% from the previous ten-day period. This indicates that steel mills are moderating production amidst widening losses, yet inventory levels remain elevated. The coking coal and coke futures segments witnessed some pullback from recent highs, reflecting cautious market sentiment. While rebar demand has shown incremental improvement, the sustainability of this recovery remains uncertain, suggesting near-term rebar futures are likely to trade within a narrow range.

Iron Ore Market Review

Iron ore futures saw a slight decline, with the main January 2027 contract closing at 713.5 yuan per tonne, down 2.5 yuan or 0.35% from the previous settlement, with trading volume at 233,300 lots and open interest increasing by 6,000 lots. Port spot prices edged lower, with Rizhao Port's 60.8% PB fines falling 3 yuan to 687 yuan, and Carajas fines dropping 3 yuan to 836 yuan. According to Mysteel data, iron ore inventory at seven major Australian and Brazilian ports totaled 13.414 million tonnes for the week of August 17-23, 2026, up 647,000 tonnes week-on-week.

Port inventories continue to climb, currently sitting slightly above the year-to-date average, maintaining a medium-term ample supply outlook. On the demand side, hot metal production remains subdued at low levels, with profit margins staying depressed and the production reduction trend showing no reversal. With no signs of supply contraction and limited demand-side improvement drivers, ore prices are expected to continue their narrow sideways movement in the near term.

Coking Coal Market Review

Coking coal futures declined during the session, with the January 2701 contract closing at 1,578 yuan per tonne, down 6 yuan or 0.38%, while open interest fell by 6,037 lots. In physical markets, Jiexiu primary coking coal (A<10.5, S<1.3, G>80) rose 50 yuan to 1,990 yuan per tonne, while Ganqimaodu port Mongolian No.5 raw coal surged 215 yuan to 1,765 yuan per tonne, and Mongolian No.3 washed coal held steady at 1,600 yuan per tonne. Mongolia's government has proposed increasing fuel imports from China to 30% of domestic consumption within its expanded petroleum import channel framework, which may support some recovery in coking coal imports through China-Mongolia border ports.

Some halted coal mines in Qinyuan County, Changzhi, Shanxi, have entered the production resumption acceptance phase, though actual output remains limited with slow overall production release. Strict safety supervision policies continue to restrict market-available supply, while producing mines generally hold ample orders with most maintaining low or zero inventory operations. Market sentiment remains bullish, with online auction activity robust and failure rates staying low, indicating near-term coking coal futures will likely trade in a fluctuating pattern.

Coke Market Review

Coke futures declined, with the January 2701 contract settling at 2,145 yuan per tonne, down 7.5 yuan or 0.35%, while open interest decreased by 714 lots. In spot markets, Rizhao Port Grade I metallurgical coke rose 20 yuan to 1,850 yuan per tonne. High coking coal prices are severely squeezing coke producers' production costs, with the national average loss per tonne of coke being substantial. Following the second round of coke price increases, coke enterprises are currently losing approximately 70 yuan per tonne, prompting widespread production restrictions and reductions across multiple regions.

Daily coke output has declined, though operating rates may see modest recovery once profitability improves. The steel market's weak performance is compressing steel mill profit margins, yet hot metal daily output remains at relatively high levels as some previously idle mills resume operations, providing rigid demand support for coke. Steel mills have increased procurement intensity compared to earlier periods, suggesting near-term coke futures will maintain oscillating movements.

Manganese Silicon Market Review

Manganese silicon futures strengthened on Tuesday, with the main contract closing at 5,968 yuan per tonne, up 0.24% from the prior session, while open interest fell by 10,168 lots to 400,300 lots. Ganglian data shows 6517 manganese silicon market prices ranging from 5,750-5,930 yuan per tonne across regions, with Inner Mongolia prices raised by 30 yuan per tonne from the previous day. The ferrous complex showed divergent movements yesterday, with manganese silicon futures edging slightly higher.

Recent manganese silicon prices have drawn strong support from the cost side, as coking coal prices advanced and manganese ore prices rose modestly, with some Tianjin Port ore grades up 0.2 yuan per tonne-degree. On supply-demand fundamentals, weekly manganese silicon output increased 5.17% week-on-week to 168,700 tonnes, while Ningxia production operating rates recovered from lows, up 8.04 percentage points to 37.8%. Demand-side indicators show sampled steel mills' weekly manganese silicon demand declining 1.08% to 112,800 tonnes, marking four consecutive weekly declines to relatively low absolute levels. Inventory data reveals 63 sampled enterprises' stockpiles rose slightly week-on-week to 459,000 tonnes as of August 21, up 303,000 tonnes year-on-year, continuously setting new multi-year highs, while warehouse receipts and valid advance notices declined year-on-year. Given insufficient upward momentum from fundamentals, manganese silicon futures are expected to maintain oscillating trading patterns in the near term.

Ferrosilicon Market Review

Ferrosilicon futures strengthened on Tuesday, with the main contract closing at 6,022 yuan per tonne, up 0.4% from the previous session, while open interest increased by 7,210 lots to 473,900 lots. Regional 72 ferrosilicon prices ranged from 5,580-5,650 yuan per tonne, with Ningxia prices raised by 40 yuan per tonne from the prior day. The ferrous complex showed mixed movements, with ferrosilicon futures edging slightly higher.

This week, blue coke prices rose 50 yuan per tonne, with Shaanxi mainstream prices at 870 yuan per tonne, providing cost-side support. Supply-side data shows national ferrosilicon output at 113,800 tonnes last week, up 1.7% week-on-week, with Inner Mongolia operating rates marginally declining while Ningxia saw increases. Demand indicators reveal sampled steel mills' weekly ferrosilicon demand falling 1.23% to 18,200 tonnes, declining for four consecutive weeks to multi-year seasonal lows. Magnesium ingot output rose slightly, with daily production up 0.99% to 3,069 tonnes. Inventory levels at 60 sampled enterprises fell 11,200 tonnes week-on-week to 76,630 tonnes as of August 21, indicating relatively tight circulating supply. With cost support but limited fundamental momentum, ferrosilicon futures are expected to maintain oscillating movements, with attention focused on broader ferrous sector trends.