Aluminum is ubiquitous, used in everything from Ford F-150 trucks to beverage cans. Since the onset of the Middle East conflict, its price increase has lagged behind those of crude oil, liquefied natural gas, or fertilizers.

Some industry experts caution that the rally in aluminum prices is far from over.

To understand why, consider the raw material buffer stocks that smelters maintain for smooth operations. Many smelters hold reserves to help them weather disruptions lasting several weeks.

However, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz suggests these inventories may now be nearly depleted. Smelters are trucking in raw materials to sustain production, but analysts note this cannot match the volume of alumina and other products typically shipped through the waterway.

"I am certain that most of those inventories are now depleted," said Charvi Trivedi, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "Therefore, the next one to two months will be critical for prices, as the actual supply shortfall becomes apparent."

Prior to the conflict, approximately one in every ten tons of global aluminum originated from the Middle East, with the majority exported to the United States, Europe, and Japan.

Data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) indicates that production by Gulf region producers in April fell 35% year-over-year, hitting its lowest level in over a decade. IAI Secretary General Jonathan Grant suggested this may not yet be the bottom.

He described the situation as "a slow-motion supply chain shock."

Even if the strait reopens, restoring smelter output could take up to six months. Repairing damaged facilities may require even longer.

"It's not as simple as plugging and unplugging," Trivedi remarked.

Trivedi estimates that aluminum production in the Middle East could lose up to 3.5 million tons this year, roughly half of the region's recent annual output. She projects global supply will shrink by nearly 3%.

Since the conflict began, aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange have risen about 16%. On Friday, aluminum traded around $3,655 per ton, near a four-year high.

Morgan Stanley offered reasons why aluminum prices haven't surged as dramatically as some investors anticipated. Strong pre-conflict shipments may have provided buyers some cushion, while regional premiums have "played a role," rising sharply in the U.S., Europe, and Japan.

Nevertheless, JPMorgan expects the market to face its largest annual deficit since 2000. The bank believes aluminum prices could reach around $4,000 per ton in the coming months, regardless of whether the strait reopens.

"We believe there could be a genuine physical metal shortage in Europe or North America over the next six months," said Bill Oplinger, CEO of Alcoa, at a conference in Miami this month.

Not all analysts predict another immediate price surge. Andy Farida, an analyst at Fastmarkets, suggests that given the significant price increase already seen, a pause is possible.

Analysts at Jefferies have recently fielded numerous calls and emails from investors trying to gauge how much higher aluminum prices could climb.

"On this point, I'm inclined to agree with the bulls," said Chris LaFemina, an analyst at Jefferies. "If the bottleneck at the Strait of Hormuz isn't resolved, prices must rise to bring the market back into balance."

Wood Mackenzie's Trivedi views a global economic recession as the most significant threat to aluminum prices. The International Monetary Fund has warned that the longer the strait remains closed, the greater the risk of the world sliding into a deep recession.

"Only then could supply and demand reach some level of equilibrium," she concluded.