BOCOM International released a research report stating that overall, it maintains its previous view that the Fed's September restart of rate cuts does not signify the beginning of a continuous rate-cutting cycle. With the neutral rate rising to around 3%, there is currently only room for 4-5 rate cuts. Although interest rate futures markets and mainstream forecasting websites still indicate potential rate cuts in October and December, the firm believes caution is still needed regarding rate cut expectations, particularly given that the U.S. economy remains resilient and short-term inflationary upward pressure remains significant. Without unexpected deterioration in the labor market, the firm believes there may only be one more rate cut this year, and the scenario of no rate cuts still exists.

The Fed's September FOMC meeting cut rates by 25 basis points to the 4.00%-4.25% range as expected. The firm believes this rate cut remains a typical preventive measure: Unlike September last year, when the U.S. labor market deteriorated sharply and even triggered the "Sahm Rule" leading to significant rate cuts, the current labor market, while showing some slowdown, has risks that are generally controllable, and the restrictiveness of policy rates has been significantly alleviated compared to last year. Meanwhile, the current employment cooling mainly stems from a weak supply-demand pattern caused by restrictive immigration policies, with low unemployment rates more reflecting a "weak balance," making it difficult for significant rate cuts to bring rapid improvement to the employment market.