The Greenland incident has concluded, allowing the stock market a breather, with the Hang Seng Index rebounding after hitting a bottom last week. This week, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. According to CME's "FedWatch Tool," the market now assigns a 95% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its January policy meeting. Expectations such as no rate cuts have already been digested by the market and are unlikely to cause further negative impact. Data from prediction platform Polymarket indicates that as of January 24th, the probability of BlackRock executive Rick Rieder being elected Fed Chairman has surged to 54%, a stark increase from just 4% at the start of the year. If confirmed, this would serve as a stimulus for the market. Trump's announcement of a planned visit to China in April was met with a response from the Chinese Foreign Ministry's Guo Jiakun, who stated, "The stable development of China-U.S. relations aligns with the common interests of both nations and the shared expectations of the international community. At present, stable expectations between China and the U.S. are beneficial for both sides." As the final week of January concludes, the overall sentiment is expected to lean positive, barring any new aggressive moves from hawkish directions. With the U.S. already making various preparations, gold-related assets continue to maintain exceptionally high热度. Silver prices have surged past $100. On January 23rd, both spot and futures prices for silver breached the $100 mark, setting new historical highs. Closing data showed London silver spot prices at $103.341 per ounce, marking a significant intraday gain of 7.48%. In trending sectors, positive developments in the commercial space economy continue to ferment. Beijing has announced policies encouraging mergers and acquisitions among upstream and downstream satellite data enterprises. Xu Ming, Founder, Chairman, and CEO of GalaxySpace, delivered a keynote speech titled "New Infrastructure and New Applications in the Era of Space Science and Technology Innovation," predicting that new space infrastructure will trigger a trillion-dollar market explosion, with the global space economy expected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035. Elon Musk stated that Starship's goal for this year is full reusability, potentially reducing the cost of reaching space to just 1% of current levels, which is expected to continuously catalyze the commercial space concept. The Trump administration plans to inject $1.6 billion into a U.S. rare earths company, marking the latest move by Washington to engage with the private sector to secure critical mineral supplies and representing the largest U.S. investment in this field. Related rare earth and mineral resource stocks are anticipated to be stimulated.

Joyson Electronics (00699) will see its Galaxy General Robot featured on the Lunar New Year Gala, designated as the "Embodied AI Robot for the 2026 China Central Television Spring Festival Gala." Joyson supplies the main control board and wireless charging system for the Galaxy General Robot, with a unit value estimated in the ten-thousands of yuan range. The Gala exposure is expected to provide significant, high-level catalytic effect. A North American client is scheduled to hold its Q4 earnings call in the early hours of January 29th Beijing time, which may further catalyze the robotics industry chain. The company's leading assembly and exterior cover components have completed the Request for Quotation (RFQ) process, and North American production capacity is prepared, awaiting subsequent customer designation. The intelligent vehicle industry continues to see catalysts, with domestic L3 regulations expected to be finalized in Q1 2026. The company has been securing major intelligent orders this year and is deepening collaborations with firms like Qualcomm, Momenta, and Black Sesame to accelerate business growth. Institutions like Changjiang Securities project 2026 earnings of 1.8 billion yuan, with a potential market capitalization展望 of 800-1000 billion yuan.

Moderna and Merck have released 5-year follow-up data from the KEYNOTE-942 (mRNA-4157 + Keytruda) Phase 2b trial: in high-risk melanoma, the combination therapy reduced the risk of recurrence or death by nearly 50% compared to PD-1 monotherapy, demonstrating clear long-term benefits. The project currently has 8 Phase II/III clinical trials underway, covering melanoma, NSCLC, bladder cancer, kidney cancer, and others. The data validates the real-world efficacy and platform value of mRNA in cancer treatment. Driven by this event, Moderna's U.S. stock surged nearly 16% in a single day, with Hong Kong's Everest Med (01952) also posting significant gains, indicating resonance between industry developments and capital markets. Currently, mRNA technology, championed by figures like Cathie Wood and Elon Musk, is transitioning from "pandemic dividends" to a phase of realizing long-term value in "oncology + chronic diseases." Technologically, its platform nature, short R&D cycles, potential for personalization, and ability to significantly improve long-term survival when combined with PD-1 inhibitors have been repeatedly validated. Industrially, overseas leaders possess mature funding, production capacity, and regulatory experience, with oncology and multi-disease pipelines entering a period of密集 data readouts; domestically, accelerated catch-up is underway supported by advancements in LNP delivery, manufacturing processes, and policy support, continuously reducing uncertainties and potentially leading to asset revaluation. Over the next 2-3 years, clinical data, BD licensing, approvals, and commercialization will continue to act as catalysts for the sector. In Hong Kong stocks, focus on Everest Med (01952) and CansinoBio (06185).

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing data shows the total number of open contracts for Hang Seng Index Futures (January) is 105,048, with a net open interest of 49,021 contracts. The settlement date for Hang Seng Index Futures is January 29, 2026, with settlement occurring this week. With the Hang Seng Index at the 26,750 point level, and a dense concentration of bull warrants below nearing the central axis, the data suggests a continued downward inclination for the index. The Fed's FOMC meeting is expected to hold rates steady, while U.S. Core PCE data and the OPEC+ meeting warrant close attention.

Last week, the Hang Seng Index accumulated a decline of 0.45%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.42%, with both indices exhibiting a "lower first, higher later" pattern. Recent research data from the weekend indicates a quiet shift in Hong Kong stock holdings of public funds: the Hong Kong stock allocation of active equity-biased funds decreased by 3.1 percentage points to 16.2%, while the allocation to Hang Seng Tech stocks fell by 2.5 percentage points to 6.7%. These funds reduced holdings in tech giants like Alibaba, Tencent Holdings, SMIC, and Xiaomi Group, while increasing their stake percentages significantly in innovative pharmaceutical companies such as Joinn Laboratories, DualityBio, and BioCyto. Current Hong Kong stock valuations have returned to a fundamentally reasonable range, with the safety margin narrowing compared to the "significant undervaluation" seen last year. Considering the mixed macroeconomic signals and geopolitical uncertainties, a unilateral sharp rally driven solely by valuation repair is unlikely to reappear in the short term. Excessively high consensus expectations have led to crowded trading spaces, diminishing the offensive attributes of the AI sector as a differentiated theme and making it harder to achieve alpha returns. In contrast, the domestic demand sector, constrained by both valuation and expectations, may possess more弹性 repair potential within the context of存量 competition. The biopharmaceutical field, leveraging China's engineer dividend, may continuously present new opportunities.