On Friday, May 29, in early Asian trading, spot gold opened with a slight increase, currently trading around $4,500. Yesterday (Thursday, May 28), the gold market continued to face downward pressure in early trading, with prices falling to a low near $4,365 before quickly halting the decline and rebounding. The bullish counterattack was strong during the day, with prices continuously oscillating higher. The upward trend continued into the evening, and prices maintained high-level oscillations into the close, ultimately settling at $4,496, up 0.9% for the day. The daily chart formed a medium-sized bullish candle with a long lower shadow, overall showing a pattern of bottoming out and rebounding, with a reversal and strengthening from low levels.
Key fundamental developments: United States: ① U.S. officials stated that the U.S. military conducted new strikes on Iranian military facilities. ② The U.S. added Iran's "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" to its sanctions list. ③ U.S. Vice President Vance noted that the U.S. and Iran have not yet reached an agreement but are close to the goal. ④ Bessent commented that Trump would not accept a "bad Iran deal," and the easing of sanctions depends on Iran's concessions on nuclear issues. Any plan to impose tolls on the strait is an "invalid proposal."
Iran: ① Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps announced strikes on U.S. air force bases. ② Informed sources indicated that Iran has not agreed to any memorandum of understanding, with Israeli media reporters reporting that the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding has not received approval from Iran's leadership. ③ Iranian officials stated that Iran's frozen assets must be released unconditionally and that the U.S. will not be allowed to "undermine the sovereignty of the Strait of Hormuz."
Data: The U.S. core PCE price index year-on-year for April further rose to 3.3%, the highest level since November 2023, in line with market expectations. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.24% to 98.99 on Thursday, ending two consecutive days of gains. Both Brent crude and WTI crude oil rose and then fell on Thursday, closing with bearish candles.
From a technical perspective, examining the daily chart of gold, yesterday's downward adjustment and decline to the $4,370 level were in line with expectations. The subsequent rebound in the evening was primarily driven by sudden news affecting market sentiment, along with the technical need for a rebound due to short-term oversold conditions. Although gold has rebounded, it has not yet broken through the resistance near the 10-day moving average around $4,520, which also serves as short-term trendline resistance. Failure to sustain above this level indicates that gold's technical momentum remains weak. Even if it breaks above, the 20-day moving average around $4,580-4,585 presents a strong resistance zone. While the impact of news may not immediately reverse the trend, it significantly affects short-term rhythm. Today, gold is likely to undergo consolidation as it digests the news, with expectations of oscillation below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages around $4,510-4,520. Even if there is a corrective decline, the downside space is expected to be limited, with key support around $4,450.
Combined with the one-hour chart, gold rebounded to above $4,500 overnight but has yet to break through the trendline resistance. Therefore, gold may first undergo consolidation today as it digests overnight movements and awaits further news for directional guidance. Focus today will be on the battle around $4,520. A sustained break above this level would indicate relative short-term strength, but further gains would still rely on news-driven momentum. If news remains subdued today, gold is likely to undergo a corrective pullback to test support, with key attention on oscillations around the $4,460-4,450 zone.
Today's trading suggestion: Operate within the $4,520–$4,450 range using short-term low-buy-high-sell strategies. If the range is broken, watch for resistance around $4,560-4,580 on the upside and support around $4,430-4,410 on the downside.