While the second listing application of KaYou has just lapsed, Suplay is swiftly making its way to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, competing to become the "first trading card stock." On January 9, IP collectibles and consumer product company Suplay Inc. officially submitted its prospectus, with CICC and J.P. Morgan acting as joint sponsors. The prospectus indicates that the company's flagship brand "Kakawo" ranks first in China's collectible trading card market and is the sole Chinese brand among the world's top five collectible non-battle card brands. For the first nine months of 2023-2025, Suplay achieved total revenues of RMB 146 million, RMB 281 million, and RMB 283 million, respectively, with adjusted net profits recorded at RMB 15.974 million, RMB 64.815 million, and RMB 86.423 million. Notably, its core product, collectible cards, saw both volume and price rise, with sales volume increasing from 1.56 million units to 4.582 million units, and the average revenue per unit sold growing from RMB 31.0 to RMB 43.0. During the reporting period, revenue from collectibles, primarily trading cards, surged from 32.9% to 70.0% of Suplay's total revenue. The gross profit margin for this segment climbed from 57.9% to 69.5%, driving the company's overall gross margin above 54% and its adjusted net profit margin to 30.5%. In comparison, trading card game company KaYou reported a gross margin of approximately 67.3% and an adjusted net profit margin of about 44.4% for 2024.

High gross margins and high net profits characterize the trading card business, yet its critical vulnerability lies in its dependence on licensed intellectual property. An analysis of the business milestones and financial data disclosed in the prospectus clearly shows that Suplay's performance "takeoff" is closely tied to popular licensed IP. In 2023, the company launched the PHANTOM Disney 100th Anniversary Magical Characters collection cards, with revenue from licensed IP surpassing that from its own IP that year, contributing approximately 54.2% to total revenue. In 2024, Suplay released the PHANTOM Warner Bros. 100th Anniversary Official collection cards and the PHANTOM Harry Potter Official collection cards, fueling a 202.1% year-on-year surge in licensed IP revenue to RMB 239 million, accounting for about 85.1% of total revenue. As of September 30, 2025, the company had secured licensing arrangements with 22 IP licensors, generating licensed IP revenue of RMB 269 million—exceeding the full-year 2024 figure—and representing a substantial 95.0% of total revenue. Concurrently, Suplay's reliance on top licensed IPs has intensified. For the first nine months of 2023-2025, revenue from its top five licensed IPs accounted for 47.8%, 61.5%, and 77.7% of the total, respectively, with the single largest licensed IP contributing 28.4%, 17.8%, and 32.3%. In stark contrast, the performance of Suplay's three proprietary IPs—"Rabbit KIKI," "OHO Uncle," and "Rippled Egg"—has been disappointing. Revenue from proprietary IPs plummeted by a cumulative 80.2% during the reporting period. For the first nine months of 2025, proprietary IP revenue constituted a mere 4.1% of total revenue, a sharp decrease of nearly 13 percentage points year-on-year.

Deep integration with licensed IP means that both revenue and costs are subject to external control. Among the 14 licensed IPs disclosed in the prospectus, Suplay holds exclusive rights to only 3, with the remainder being non-exclusive. Two IP licenses expired in 2025, while six are set to expire in 2026 and five in 2027. As of the latest practicable date, the licensing agreement for the IP contributing the largest portion of revenue had already lapsed. In 2023 and 2024, Suplay's IP licensing costs were RMB 14.685 million and RMB 28.774 million, representing approximately 17.3% and 18.9% of the cost of sales for those periods, respectively, and remaining stable at around 10% of total revenue. For the first nine months of 2025, the company's IP licensing costs grew significantly by 53.7% year-on-year to RMB 31.587 million, constituting nearly a quarter of the period's cost of sales and approximately 11.1% of total revenue. For trendy toy and card companies, licensed IP is a double-edged sword. On one hand, established licensed IPs help brands quickly capture market share and enhance product sales and premium pricing. Conversely, popular IPs are often licensed non-exclusively, which can significantly dilute a product's uniqueness. Furthermore, most IP licensing agreements span only 1-3 years and are not automatically renewable, forcing companies to continually seek the next "hit" or negotiate from a position of weakness. Suplay candidly acknowledges in its prospectus that the success of licensed IP products depends on factors beyond its control. Should a popular IP choose not to renew or terminate early, it would materially and adversely affect the company's performance.

Despite Suplay's repeated emphasis that its collectible cards are certified by the four globally recognized grading authorities—PSA, CGC, BGS, and SGC—inventory impairment provisions reveal potential risks of product depreciation. The prospectus shows that for 2023 and 2024, the company's inventory value stood at RMB 21.082 million and RMB 33.924 million, respectively, with inventory impairment provisions of RMB 8.829 million and RMB 23.282 million, indicating a yearly increasing trend. For the first nine months of 2025, Suplay's inventory impairment provision reached RMB 36.33 million, even exceeding the ending inventory value of RMB 26.492 million. From an inventory aging perspective, the impairment provision amount exactly matched the value of inventory older than one year. In other words, if Suplay's finished goods inventory remains unsold for over a year, its net realizable value is effectively written down to zero. This seems to contradict the characteristics of its core product, collectible non-battle cards. Frost & Sullivan research indicates that the value of collectible non-battle cards stems from scarcity and consensus, primarily achieved through iconic IP, limited editions, professional grading, and the passage of time. Theoretically, long-term holding should enhance a card's scarcity and thus its value, rather than causing it to depreciate like an expired product. More concerning is the relatively low growth ceiling projected for the collectible card track. Optimistic forecasts suggest the domestic collectible card market size (by GMV) will grow from RMB 8 billion in 2025 to RMB 16.5 billion in 2029, with a high compound annual growth rate of 21.4%, far exceeding the overall growth rate of the consumer collectible card and non-battle card market during the same period. However, its share of the global pan-entertainment merchandise industry market size (by GMV) is projected to increase only marginally, from 1.1% to 1.3%.

(Source: Prospectus) This potentially limited upside may explain why Suplay has never been a hot commodity in the primary market. Between 2020 and 2021, the company completed only four rounds of equity financing, with investors mostly being independent third-party individuals and industrial investors. Suplay introduced Jixiang Capital, a subsidiary of listed game company G-bits, in its Series A round, securing an exclusive investment of $3.5 million. The Series A+ round saw game company miHoYo invest approximately $8 million to acquire 21.164 million preferred shares. In June 2025, East Links Limited and the company's Executive Director, CFO, HR Director, and Board Secretary, Li Jing, invested $1.9983 million and $209,200, respectively. Post-transaction, the company's valuation reached $100 million, a 27.9% increase from the Series A+ round valuation in 2021. Notably, in September 2025, company founder Huang Wanjun, through his wholly-owned HLB Group Limited, transferred seed-round preferred shares to institutions or investment platforms including CPE Yuanfeng, East Links Limited, Silverpointe Investments (a Singapore family office), Gam3Girl Ventures (a Singapore Web3 incubation fund), and Hit Point Investment, realizing a total of $6.6474 million, equivalent to approximately RMB 46.2918 million. The prospectus reveals that these seed-round preferred shares were originally subscribed by an entity wholly owned by Huang Shengli, founder of the cultural creative product crowdfunding community Modian, and transferred to Huang Wanjun in March 2021. As shareholders required Huang Wanjun not to hold any preferred share interests at that time, Suplay redeemed this portion of equity and issued him an equivalent amount of ordinary shares. Between 2023 and 2025, a total of 8 million ordinary shares were subsequently reclassified as seed-round preferred shares.

As Suplay positions itself at the starting line for the "first trading card stock," it demonstrates rapid growth. However, its heavy reliance on licensed IP, inventory impairment risks, and the concentration of IP agreement expirations remain key focal points for investors. Against a backdrop of intensifying industry competition, the company's ability to build a more sustainable IP ecosystem and value闭环 will be crucial for winning long-term trust in the capital markets.