Bernstein's latest tracking report on South Korean memory chip exports, released on Thursday, indicates sustained robust growth in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) related exports for August, with Samsung Electronics' HBM4 rollout pace standing out as particularly strong. Based on regression analysis of July and August export data, the firm estimates Samsung's third-quarter HBM revenue could climb 72% quarter-over-quarter to roughly $11.4 billion, exceeding its previous forecast by approximately 23%.

Across the broader picture, South Korea's August exports of multi-chip memory products to Taiwan and Malaysia rose 19% month-over-month and 17% from May, while surging 77% year-over-year. Given the high historical correlation between these export figures and the HBM revenues of both Samsung and SK Hynix, Bernstein views the latest data as reflecting persistently strong overall HBM demand in the third quarter.

Projected Q3 HBM Revenue of $11.4 Billion Positions Samsung's HBM4 as Key Growth Driver

For Samsung specifically, August export volumes from South Chungcheong Province rebounded 30% month-over-month to $2.8 billion, representing a 61% jump from May. This region hosts Samsung's back-end production facilities and serves as a primary hub for its HBM packaging operations. Combined July-August export figures were 83% higher than the comparable period in the previous quarter, pointing to sustained momentum in Samsung's third-quarter HBM business.

Using the historical regression relationship between export data and HBM revenue, Bernstein projects Samsung's third-quarter HBM revenue could reach approximately $11.4 billion, up 72% sequentially and roughly 23% above the firm's earlier estimate of $9.3 billion. Notably, Samsung's HBM exports typically exhibit pronounced end-of-quarter shipping concentration. Since the first quarter of 2025, first-month exports have averaged less than 20% of the full quarter's total. The third quarter appears to be following this established pattern, suggesting further upside potential for September shipments.

HBM4 is emerging as a significant contributor to Samsung's growth trajectory. Bernstein tracks shifts in average selling prices and product mix by monitoring the "value per unit weight" of exported products. In August, the value per unit weight for South Chungcheong Province's multi-chip memory products rose another 8% month-over-month, reaching 2.2 times April levels. The firm attributes this pronounced increase primarily to a higher proportion of HBM4 shipments, given that HBM4's value per unit weight is expected to substantially exceed that of HBM3 and HBM3E. Samsung previously guided that HBM4 sales would more than triple sequentially in the third quarter and account for over 60% of its total HBM sales by the second half of 2026. Bernstein believes the current export data aligns broadly with this guidance.

SK Hynix's HBM4 Ramp Pending; Shipment Cadence Becomes Key Watchpoint

In contrast to Samsung, SK Hynix's related export data currently appears comparatively moderate. August exports from North Chungcheong Province and Gyeonggi Province, which serve as proxy indicators for SK Hynix's HBM shipments, rose 7% month-over-month but declined 21% from May. Combined July-August export figures also fell 21% relative to the same period last quarter.

Applying historical regression analysis, Bernstein estimates SK Hynix's third-quarter HBM revenue at approximately $5.9 billion, down about 14% quarter-over-quarter. However, the firm emphasizes that export data cannot fully capture SK Hynix's HBM revenue, rendering the model-based projection subject to considerable uncertainty. The relatively subdued export figures likely stem primarily from the later timing of SK Hynix's HBM4 shipments. Once HBM4 enters large-scale production, the monthly shipment cadence could shift markedly, diminishing the predictive power of historical models.

If SK Hynix's historical pattern of heavier end-of-quarter shipping holds, its third-quarter HBM revenue could reach approximately $7.5 billion, achieving sequential growth. Meanwhile, the value per unit weight for SK Hynix's related products remained broadly flat in August, showing no significant changes yet from large-scale HBM4 shipments. Bernstein expects this metric to show more pronounced upward movement in the coming months as HBM4 volumes officially ramp.

Samsung Poised for Interim HBM Share Leadership; SK Hynix's HBM4 Becomes Next Critical Catalyst

Synthesizing the August export data, Bernstein believes Samsung's third-quarter HBM revenue growth rate may outpace SK Hynix, potentially allowing Samsung to claim interim market share leadership. This aligns with the firm's earlier assessment that Samsung's competitive position in HBM is steadily improving. Samsung's earlier push to ship HBM4 represents a key factor behind the divergent growth trajectories between the two companies. However, SK Hynix's HBM4 is expected to gradually ramp later this year, which should provide support for its market share position. Additionally, Bernstein projects that 2027 HBM contract price increases could benefit both SK Hynix and the broader memory industry.

The regression model in the report also reflects this divergence. Samsung's July and August export data now imply a third-quarter HBM revenue projection that clearly exceeds Bernstein's prior estimates, whereas SK Hynix's current data suggests the full impact of its HBM4 ramp has yet to materialize.

HBM Pricing Upside in Focus as 2027 Contract Negotiations Take Center Stage

Beyond shipment volumes, pricing represents a critical factor shaping future HBM vendor performance. Bernstein notes that conventional memory product prices have risen significantly since the third quarter of 2025, yet the value per unit weight of exports, which reflects HBM price trends, has shown relatively modest gains. Samsung's recent sharp increase in this metric likely reflects product mix upgrades from a higher HBM4 proportion rather than equivalent price increases across the same HBM generation. Memory suppliers and customers are currently negotiating 2027 HBM contracts and pricing. Bernstein believes the earnings benefits from higher HBM prices may gradually materialize in the period ahead.

Meanwhile, robust conventional memory pricing is expected to persist through the third quarter, further improving revenue and profitability for major memory manufacturers.

Malaysia HBM Exports Rise to $1.6 Billion, Spotlighting Advanced Packaging Demand

Shifts in the destination mix of South Korean HBM exports also merit attention. In August, exports to Malaysia grew another 22% month-over-month to approximately $1.6 billion, representing about 33% of total HBM-related exports. Over the past six months, average monthly exports to Malaysia stood at roughly $900 million, compared with approximately $3.7 billion to Taiwan.

Bernstein suggests this demand may be linked to Intel's EMIB advanced packaging operations. Malaysia hosts Intel's high-end packaging facilities, where certain high-end server CPUs equipped with HBM can be packaged using EMIB technology. However, the firm notes that the specific drivers behind this demand growth remain to be further observed.

From a supplier structure perspective, roughly 40% of Samsung's related exports flow to Malaysia, while approximately 24% of SK Hynix's proxy regional exports are directed there. Bernstein believes the rapid growth in Malaysian demand this year has contributed notably to Samsung's HBM business, also reflecting that Samsung's HBM products are gaining broader customer traction.

Bernstein Maintains Constructive Outlook on the Memory Cycle

Overall, Bernstein concludes that August export data continues to demonstrate strong growth momentum in Samsung's HBM business, while SK Hynix's large-scale HBM4 shipments are still awaiting fuller realization. The firm also cautions that using regional export data to forecast individual company HBM revenue carries inherent limitations, so short-term export fluctuations should not be equated directly with actual financial results. Nevertheless, given the solid historical correlation with HBM revenue, the data remains a valuable leading indicator for tracking industry trends.

Bernstein believes that conventional memory price increases, clearer capital return policies, and long-term supply agreements could continue providing support to the memory chip industry. Despite the sector's inherent cyclicality, the firm maintains a constructive outlook on the DRAM market and the medium-to-long-term prospects of Samsung, SK Hynix (SKHY.US), and Micron Technology (MU.US).

Looking at the current HBM competitive landscape, HBM4 is emerging as the most critical variable for the next phase. Samsung currently demonstrates stronger growth momentum through earlier volume ramp-up, while SK Hynix's HBM4 shipments gradually increase later this year, keeping the competition between these two companies over next-generation high-bandwidth memory ongoing. Meanwhile, 2027 HBM contract price negotiations and the sustainability of strong AI server demand will be decisive factors shaping HBM market revenue growth and overall memory industry momentum in the next phase.