On September 21, all three major A-share indices closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index leading the major benchmarks with a 0.97% gain to 3,949.91 points. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.65% to 13,730.02 points. Small and mid-cap styles outperformed, with total combined turnover reaching 205 million yuan. The pharmaceutical supply chain saw a broad rally, with medical services, chemical pharmaceuticals, biological products, CRO, and innovative drugs leading the gains. The real estate sector strengthened rapidly in the afternoon, while retail, grain concepts, oilfield services, and baijiu were also active. On the downside, precious metals weakened against the trend, with insurance and banking sectors among the top decliners. More than 4,500 stocks rose, highlighting a broad-based advance.

Looking ahead, macroeconomic uncertainty may have largely settled for now. With oil prices and long-term U.S. Treasury yields pulling back, overseas liquidity concerns have temporarily eased, shifting market focus back to earnings fundamentals. Domestic growth stabilization measures continue to gain momentum, and the convergence of positive internal and external factors could pave the way for a second round of recovery in A-shares. However, investors should remain mindful of the pre-holiday effect around the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, as the rebound may not be a straight line. From a positioning standpoint, electronics, communications, and the AI supply chain can serve as offensive holdings, while high-dividend assets such as banks and coal provide a defensive base, allowing investors to respond rationally to market volatility.

Today, innovative drugs and CXO sectors led the gains, extending the strong performance seen since last week. On the policy front, on September 18, ten government agencies including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the 15th Five-Year Plan for Pharmaceutical Industry Development, elevating biomedicine to a national emerging pillar industry and, for the first time, quantifying targets such as FIC accounting for at least 25% of global totals and annual growth of at least 20% in the innovative drug industry scale. The plan also outlines pathways for AI-driven drug development, precision diagnostics, and digital transformation. This marks a policy shift from scale expansion to structural upgrading, with resources further concentrated among innovative drug companies with original targets, differentiated clinical data, and global development capabilities, strengthening the sector's medium-to-long-term outlook.

Externally, the U.S. Treasury Department is considering relaxing restrictions on innovative drug licensing deals with China, though no final decision has been made. The proposed move would allow BD collaborations for most therapeutic drugs, excluding pathogens and weaponizable technologies, potentially easing the uncertainty that has suppressed License-out valuations over the past year and providing near-term catalysts for the innovative drug sector. On the fundamentals side, 2026 interim results clearly confirmed a profit inflection point, with leading innovative drug companies entering the harvest phase for their proprietary pipelines. Innovative drug revenue is growing rapidly, and sector momentum continues to recover. On the overseas expansion front, BD licensing transactions remain active.

Looking forward in the near term, attention should focus on the earnings delivery of domestic innovative drug volume and BD milestone payments in the third-quarter reports. Over the medium term, the industry's main narrative will shift from valuation recovery to earnings and globalization realization, with key monitoring points including medical insurance negotiations and the implementation of supporting policies. Across the supply chain, CXO momentum persists, CDMO platform orders are improving, and the certainty of earnings delivery remains high. Interested investors may continue to track Innovative Drug ETF (517110), Hang Seng Biotech ETF (520930), and STAR Innovative Drug ETF (589720).

On September 21, the grain sector performed actively, with the Guozheng Grain Index rising 2.30% for the day. On the news front, policy and industry catalysts have landed densely. That day, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the Opening Steps and 15th Five-Year Plan series, noting that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China will deepen implementation of the national food security strategy and accelerate the establishment of a modern grain circulation system befitting its major-country status. Earlier, on September 18, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Planting Industry Development, scientifically guiding high-quality development of the planting industry and strengthening supply assurance capacity for grain and other important agricultural products.

From the global supply perspective, weather disruptions from El Ni帽o are becoming a key variable for the grain supply chain. The World Meteorological Organization confirmed the formation of an El Ni帽o event on September 3, and agencies such as NOAA predict the intensity could strengthen further through autumn and winter, with a 98% probability of a very strong El Ni帽o. The global agricultural supply-demand structure remains broadly tight. This disruption is already visible in supply-demand data: the UN FAO reports that the global food price index averaged 133.3 points in August, up 1.9% month-over-month to the highest level since December 2022. The USDA's September supply-demand report cut its 2026/27 global corn production forecast by 0.61% and lowered global rice production forecasts due to El Ni帽o impacts. Tighter supply expectations could push the price center of related agricultural products higher.

Domestic policy and industry trends also provide medium-term support. This year's Central Document No. 1 explicitly targets stabilizing annual grain output at around 1.4 trillion jin by 2026, with key priorities including intensifying a new round of 100-billion-jin grain production capacity enhancement and advancing high-standard farmland construction by region and category. At the industry level, during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the annual industrial output value of China's grain enterprises exceeded 4 trillion yuan, and during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the grain industry is expected to achieve annual industrial output value above 4.5 trillion yuan. Additionally, the acceleration of biological breeding industrialization and the expansion of genetically modified crop varieties open growth space for core segments of the supply chain such as the seed industry.

From an index perspective, after an extended period of correction, the grain sector's overall valuation has reached historically low levels, offering a certain margin of safety and recovery potential. Against the backdrop of extreme weather disruptions, rising global grain prices, and domestic food security policies, the allocation value of the grain industry theme deserves attention. For investors seeking broad exposure to the grain supply chain, index-based tools offer a way to diversify individual stock risk. The Grain ETF (159033) tracks the Guozheng Grain Industry Index (399365.SZ), and its constituent stocks feature leading weights in the seed and planting industries, anchoring exposure to segments with strong policy catalysts in the grain supply chain. Investors may appropriately consider the tool's medium-to-long-term allocation opportunities based on their own risk preferences.

Entering late September, the coal sector has regained momentum, with the CSI Coal Index rising 2.68% today. On the news front, the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration, and the National Mine Safety Administration recently jointly issued a notice with multiple measures to accelerate stable coal production and supply assurance, promoting a steady recovery in coal output. However, this round of production increases remains constrained by safety conditions, approval procedures, and monthly production intensity limits. Winter peak-season supply increments will mainly come from large state-owned mines with better safety conditions and high-quality capacity. Since rectification acceptance and capacity expansion approvals both take time, a time gap exists between supply recovery and demand release. The industry may maintain a pattern of generally tight supply and high coal prices.

From both supply and demand perspectives, the fundamental support for coal remains solid. On the supply side, due to stricter safety supervision, national raw coal output fell 1.7%, 9.7%, 10.1%, and 7.7% year-over-year from May to August. Entering September, capacity utilization in Shanxi remains below year-ago levels, with production flexibility in major producing regions still suppressed. On the demand side, expectations of restocking by non-power industries during the golden September and silver October period, combined with winter reserve stocking, provide support for coal prices. The improvement in fundamentals is also evident in earnings. The coal sector's second-quarter net profit growth surged from -1.1% in the first quarter to 64.8%, showing that stabilizing coal prices and cost improvements have clearly transmitted to the profit side.

Meanwhile, the sector's high-dividend characteristics stand out, with major coal leaders typically distributing 50% to 90% of profits and dividend yields generally exceeding 4%, offering defensive value in a market environment with faster style rotation. For investors seeking broad exposure to the coal sector, index-based tools provide a way to diversify individual stock risk. The Coal ETF (515220) tracks the CSI Coal Index, which selects listed company securities involved in coal mining and coal processing as index constituents, reflecting the overall performance of coal-related listed companies. Given the current context of unresolved supply constraints, high coal prices, and supported industry profitability and dividends, the coal sector's allocation value deserves attention. Investors may appropriately consider the tool's long-term allocation opportunities based on their own risk preferences and valuation levels.

Risk warning: Investors should fully understand the difference between regular fixed-amount investment in funds and savings methods such as installment deposits. Regular fixed-amount investment is a simple way to guide investors toward long-term investing and average investment costs. However, regular fixed-amount investment cannot avoid the inherent risks of fund investing, does not guarantee returns, and is not an equivalent wealth management alternative to savings. The funds mentioned are equity funds, which are securities investment fund products with relatively high expected risk and expected returns. Their expected returns and risk levels are higher than hybrid funds, bond funds, and money market funds. Sector/fund short-term gains and losses are for reference only and do not constitute a guarantee of fund performance. The above views are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice or commitments. If you wish to purchase related fund products, please pay attention to investor suitability management regulations, complete risk assessments in advance, and purchase fund products matching your risk tolerance level. Funds involve risks; invest with caution.