On February 27th, the latest data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday indicated that the AI wave has not yet disrupted the job market in the way the "Anthropic storm" impacted software stocks. In the week ending February 21st, initial jobless claims increased by only about 4,000 to 212,000. The median estimate in a survey of economists was 216,000. This reporting period included the Presidents' Day holiday. Continuing jobless claims—a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits—decreased to 1.83 million in the previous week's benchmark. Despite fewer layoffs and a notable slowdown in hiring, these figures still reflect the stability of the US labor market and reinforce the "soft landing" narrative. Following the release of today's initial claims data, expectations for interest rate cuts showed no significant change, implying that employment resilience remains intact and layoffs have not increased markedly. Consequently, the Federal Reserve almost certainly lacks the conditions to implement rate-cutting monetary policy in March, and May may also be premature, leaving June as the most likely "window for a rate cut" at present.

Furthermore, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde hinted again on Thursday that she intends to serve out her full term to complete various projects, including the digital euro. This is her latest rebuttal to recent speculation about a potential early departure. Speaking in the European Parliament, she stated: "The digital euro is one of the missions I consider crucial." "My baseline expectation is that completing and consolidating this mission will require staying until the end of my term: this includes price stability and financial stability, as well as a robust digital euro—covering all areas, online, offline, wholesale, and retail." In a private message to colleagues seen by media, Lagarde also affirmed that she remains focused on her work and would inform colleagues first if she planned to resign. An early resignation by Lagarde is perceived by some as potentially facilitating the selection of a successor by like-minded leaders such as Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

Key data to watch today includes: France's final Q4 GDP annual rate, Germany's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for February, the Eurozone's ECB 1-year CPI expectations for January, Germany's preliminary February CPI annual rate, the US PPI annual rate for January, Canada's annualized Q4 GDP quarterly rate, Canada's monthly GDP growth rate for December, and the US Chicago PMI for February.

**US Dollar Index** The US Dollar Index moved higher in a fluctuating session yesterday, closing slightly up. The spot price is currently trading near 97.80. Support stemmed from cooled expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, in addition to the supportive influence of positive US initial jobless claims data released during the session. However, concerns among investors regarding uncertain US tariff policies limited the index's rebound. Today, focus is on resistance near 98.30, with support found around 97.30.

**EUR/USD** The Euro traded within a narrow range yesterday, ending the day with a slight decline. The spot price is currently trading near 1.1800. The pair faced pressure from profit-taking activities. Furthermore, the US Dollar Index's rebound and positive close, supported by solid economic data and diminished Fed rate cut expectations, also weighed on the Euro. Additionally, weak economic data from the Eurozone released during the session contributed to the downward pressure. Today, attention is on resistance near 1.1900, with support around 1.1700.

**GBP/USD** The British Pound trended lower yesterday, falling below the 1.3500 mark to hit a fresh 4-day low. The spot price is currently trading near 1.3480. Selling pressure came from profit-taking. The rebound in the US Dollar Index was also a significant factor pressuring the Pound. Moreover, market expectations for potential Bank of England rate cuts and concerns about UK political uncertainty exerted additional downward pressure on the currency pair. Today, watch for resistance near 1.3550, with support located around 1.3400.