On February 12, during the Asian trading session, gold prices oscillated higher as buying interest gradually increased. Entering the US session, prices accelerated sharply, briefly hitting a new intraday high near $5,118. However, this peak was not sustained, and gold quickly retreated, nearly erasing all of the day's gains amid heightened short-term volatility. The decline did not trigger panic selling, and prices stabilized and recovered some losses during the late session. Ultimately, gold closed around $5,082, recording a small bullish candlestick with a long upper shadow on the daily chart.
On Thursday, February 12, the latest data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that US non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, significantly exceeding expectations of 70,000 and the previous month's figure of 50,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. However, the market recognized from gold's fluctuations that a single strong data point can only influence the timing of interest rate cuts, not alter the overall rate-cutting cycle. Following the jobs report, former President Trump quickly reiterated his call for the Federal Reserve to lower rates to "the lowest level globally." This public divergence between the administration and monetary authorities has taught the market to maintain a place for gold amidst policy disagreements.
Today's focus is on the US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending February 7. Market expectations lean towards a negative impact on gold prices. However, the influence of this data is likely to be a technical disturbance, unlikely to change the current oscillating but slightly stronger trend. The key event remains Friday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for January. If the data meets expectations, gold prices may extend their gains, as Fed officials have emphasized that they might consider rate cuts if disinflation progresses again. Therefore, gold is expected to continue trading within a range during the daytime sessions over the next two days.
From a technical perspective, an unusual surge during the European session yesterday pushed gold above the upper resistance line of the trend, but the non-farm payroll data brought prices back within the range, testing support near the lower boundary of the recent high oscillation. Although prices oscillated around the trend line late into the session, the morning session today saw another retreat into the consolidation range. Such intense emotional trading suggests that neither bulls nor bears are firmly committed, indicating a risk of a sudden trend reversal at any time. On the hourly chart, attention should focus on the battle around the lower range support near $5,040 and $5,010. If the market returns to a technically expected adjustment, a pullback towards $4,950 would be more appropriate.
In summary, Friday's CPI report will serve as a stress test for gold's new pricing logic. If the disinflation trend aligns with expectations, it will reinforce the narrative that the "rate-cutting cycle remains intact," providing fundamental support for a breakout above the triangle's upper resistance. If inflation proves stubborn and exceeds forecasts, gold may retreat to test $5,000 or even $4,935. However, as long as prices do not decisively break below the 20-day moving average, the medium-term bullish structure remains intact.
For intraday trading, the following strategy is suggested: Gold: Operate within the $5,080-$5,015 range, with a stop-loss of $15 and a take-profit target of $40-$50.
Key financial data and events to watch today, Thursday, February 12: 21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending February 7 23:00 US Existing Home Sales Annualized for January