Abstract

Live Oak Bancshares will release its quarterly results on October 21, 2025 Post Market, with consensus pointing to revenue growth and EPS improvement; investors will focus on profitability trends and management’s guidance for the next quarter.

Market Forecast

For the upcoming quarter, the company’s own projections indicate total revenue of $144.69 million with an estimated year-over-year growth rate of 17.16%, EBIT of $63.53 million with an estimated year-over-year growth rate of 25.94%, and EPS of $0.95 with an estimated year-over-year growth rate of 75.24. Net profit margin is expected to be supported by operating leverage, while gross profit margin is not explicitly guided. The main business is projected to be driven by banking services, with revenue mix highlighting deposit and lending activities. The most promising segment is banking services at $129.92 million last quarter, backed by positive year-over-year momentum from loan growth.

Last Quarter Review

Live Oak Bancshares reported last quarter revenue of $146.10 million, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $26.52 million, net profit margin of 21.47%, and adjusted EPS of $0.55, with revenue up 12.44% year-over-year and the EPS result reflecting earnings durability; the gross profit margin was not disclosed. Key highlight: net profit rose sequentially by 13.18%, signaling improving operating efficiency. Main business highlights: banking services delivered $129.92 million and continued to expand as the core revenue driver amid stable lending and deposit franchises.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business Outlook

Banking services remain the central engine for Live Oak Bancshares’s quarterly performance. With last quarter’s banking services revenue at $129.92 million, the company demonstrated consistent momentum in its lending and deposit operations. This quarter, the focus will be on credit demand across small business lending categories, deposit mix and cost of funds, and the spread environment anchoring net interest income. Management’s forecast for revenue of $144.69 million and EBIT of $63.53 million implies continued scaling, suggesting resilience in fee income and disciplined expense controls. The degree to which net profit margin can hold near or above last quarter’s 21.47% will influence share price reaction, especially given the sensitivity of bank investors to credit costs and provisioning trends.

Most Promising Segment

The most promising segment remains banking services, reflecting the company’s core franchise in originating and servicing small business loans. This segment contributed $129.92 million last quarter and is poised to continue expanding on steady origination pipelines and potential tailwinds from borrower demand. The company’s technology-enabled underwriting and servicing platform can enhance throughput and maintain efficiency ratios, supporting EBIT growth of $63.53 million forecasted for this quarter. If loan growth translates into higher interest income without disproportionate upticks in nonperforming loans, the segment’s profitability could accelerate, making the revenue estimate of $144.69 million achievable.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Three factors are likely to drive the stock this quarter: net interest income trajectory, credit quality indicators, and expense discipline. Net interest income depends on loan growth and funding costs, including the deposit mix and market rate dynamics; a favorable spread could underpin EPS near the $0.95 estimate. Credit quality will be monitored through delinquencies and nonperforming loans, since any signs of deterioration would pressure provisions and margins. Expense discipline, reflected in operating efficiency and technology spending, will be critical to sustaining the forecasted EBIT growth of 25.94% year-over-year and supporting the potential for margin stability.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish opinions dominate recent institutional commentary, with the prevailing view emphasizing ongoing revenue expansion and EPS improvement supported by operating leverage. Analysts cite the favorable setup into the quarter given sequential net profit growth of 13.18% last quarter, revenue momentum of 12.44% year-over-year, and a forecast calling for $144.69 million in revenue and $0.95 EPS. The constructive stance focuses on stable credit metrics and disciplined cost control as the foundation for the 25.94% EBIT growth outlook. The majority view anticipates a positive read-through for the banking services segment, where last quarter’s $129.92 million contribution underscores the business’s scalability and earnings visibility.