Abstract

Credicorp will report first-quarter 2026 results on May 14, 2026, Post Market; this preview outlines consensus expectations for revenue, profitability, and earnings per share, reviews the prior quarter’s performance, and evaluates the key business drivers and risks shaping the near-term print.

Market Forecast

Forecasts compiled from the company’s prior update point to first-quarter revenue of 6.06 billion, an estimated year-over-year increase of 9.27%, EBIT of 2.64 billion, up 11.42% year over year, and EPS of 24.27, up 21.80% year over year. No formal forecasts for gross profit margin or net profit margin were provided; however, the focus is on solid top-line expansion and EPS growth outpacing revenue, implying cost discipline and operating leverage.

The main business remains dominated by universal banking activity, which drives the largest portion of group revenues and earnings. The most promising segment appears to be the core universal banking franchise given its scale and its ability to capture both net interest income and fee-based revenues; the segment posted 11.14 billion in revenue in the last disclosed breakdown, with segment-level year-over-year figures not provided in the dataset.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Credicorp delivered revenue of 5.13 billion (up 2.26% year over year), a GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.59 billion with a net profit margin of 29.42%, and adjusted EPS of 19.94 (up 41.42% year over year); gross profit margin was not disclosed in the dataset. Net profit on a quarter-on-quarter basis declined by 8.72%, while EPS growth outpaced revenue growth, suggesting expense control and a favorable mix.

A notable financial highlight was the strong year-over-year EPS expansion at 41.42%, signaling efficiency gains and operating leverage even as revenue growth remained modest at 2.26%. In the business mix, universal banking (Banco de Crédito del Perú) comprised the largest revenue contribution at 11.14 billion, followed by Insurance and Pension Funds—Prima AFP at 403.00 million, “Other” at 304.00 million, Insurance and Pension Funds—Pacífico Seguros and subsidiaries at 298.00 million, and Universal Banking—Banco de Crédito de Bolivia at 215.00 million; segment-level year-over-year figures were not available in the tool return.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Universal Banking

Universal banking remains the core performance driver and the primary conduit for both net interest income and fee-based activity across payments, cards, and transactional services. With a segment revenue footprint of 11.14 billion on the latest available breakdown, the unit’s contribution dwarfs the rest of the portfolio and is central to this quarter’s print. The modeled first-quarter revenue growth of 9.27% and EPS growth of 21.80% imply that margin and operating leverage in the core bank are expected to remain supportive, even as funding costs and asset mix evolve.

Several mechanics could underpin the quarter. First, the balance of asset yields versus funding costs influences net interest income; any stabilization in deposit costs combined with disciplined asset pricing would help preserve spreads and lift earnings sensitivity to volumes. Second, fee and commission income linked to retail and corporate product usage tend to correlate with transactional volumes; payment activity, card fees, and service charges can offer incremental lift, particularly if macro activity is stable enough to sustain client usage. Third, operating expenses—especially personnel and technology—remain an area of focus; visible EPS outperformance versus revenue in the prior quarter hints at cost control and process efficiency that may carry into the new period.

Credit quality and provision dynamics are a swing factor for the core banking line this quarter. Provision expense can offset otherwise healthy pre-provision profit, so watch for signals that delinquency trends are stabilizing in consumer and SME exposures. If provisioning normalizes and collateral recoveries hold steady, the universal bank’s pre-tax performance would better translate into bottom-line results. Meanwhile, treasury and FX income may add variability; market conditions can influence trading and valuation line items, which could either augment or dampen the core net interest and fee engine. Altogether, for the bank-dominant revenue mix, the forecast trajectory suggests a quarter where solid pre-provision profitability and controlled opex could be partially balanced by provisioning patterns.

Most Promising Business: Fee and Protection Lines

Within non-banking businesses, fee and protection franchises help diversify earnings and dampen sensitivity to pure net interest spreads. Insurance and pension fund operations stand out in this regard. Insurance and Pension Funds—Pacífico Seguros and subsidiaries contributed 298.00 million, and Insurance and Pension Funds—Prima AFP added 403.00 million in the latest segment snapshot. These operations can benefit from premium growth, protection gaps in health and property lines, and asset-based fee dynamics tied to pension administration, respectively. While year-over-year growth rates by segment are not provided in the dataset, the directional setup this quarter favors franchises that monetize volumes, persistency, and asset values without relying solely on net interest margins.

For insurance, combined ratio management and claim frequency/severity trends are central. If claim patterns remain contained and pricing stays firm, underwriting results can provide incrementally stronger earnings. Investment income embedded in the insurance balance sheet can also add support when market yields stabilize, although mark-to-market movements can introduce period-to-period volatility. For pensions, assets under management and contribution flows drive fee intake; supportive capital market performance during the quarter would translate into higher fee revenues and potentially better operating leverage. The cumulative effect is that fee and protection lines can reinforce the group’s EPS trajectory, especially in a quarter where banking margins are steady but not dramatically expanding.

This mix matters for equity holders evaluating earnings resilience. The forecasts imply EPS growth outpacing revenue growth, which is consistent with both cost discipline and a richer contribution from non-spread businesses. If management sustains cost control and loss ratios behave, these business lines could contribute positively to return-on-equity dynamics in the quarter under review. Given the smaller absolute size of these units versus core banking, even moderate improvements can disproportionately influence incremental EPS, supporting the double-digit growth implied by the 21.80% EPS forecast.

Key Stock-Price Drivers This Quarter

Earnings quality will be scrutinized. Investors will parse the balance between pre-provision operating profit and bottom-line results. A print where revenue growth of 9.27% coincides with controlled expenses and manageable provisions would validate the 21.80% EPS growth forecast. Conversely, a scenario where provision expense absorbs the pre-provision gains would compress margins; the prior quarter already showed that EPS can grow faster than revenue, so a repeat would be taken as confirmation of operating leverage. Clarity on the mix of net interest income versus fees will also influence sentiment, as it signals how resilient earnings are to rate and funding-cost shifts.

Provisioning and microfinance normalization are focal. The last breakdown shows negative revenue contributions in microfinance lines, notably a -749.00 million figure for Microfinance—Mibanco and -93.00 million for Mibanco Colombia (including Edyficar S.A.S.), alongside an accounting offset of -168.00 million. While the financial classification in that breakdown may reflect intercompany eliminations and specific accounting treatments, the qualitative takeaway is that credit normalization on smaller-ticket lending remains under watch. A quarter evidencing healthier collection trends, stabilized NPL inflows, and lower cost-of-risk would be well received and could relieve pressure on the consolidated margin.

Capital deployment and external signals also play into the narrative. The stable long-term credit rating and the absence of holding-company financial debt over the near term underpin a stable funding backdrop. Any communication around dividends, payout trajectory, or prospective capital actions can influence valuation bridges from earnings to shareholder returns. Additionally, ongoing corporate initiatives—such as digital expansion and operational streamlining—may not be immediately quantifiable in a single quarter but feed into medium-term efficiency ratios; commentary that ties expense levels to measurable productivity gains can support the multiple investors are willing to pay on forecast EPS.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish views currently dominate among active voices in the period from January 1, 2026 to May 7, 2026, with favorable ratings outweighing negative stances, while several neutral views remain on the sidelines. One prominent global investment bank maintained a Buy rating and lifted its target price to $408 in late April, citing a stronger earnings algorithm and improved capital generation as supportive factors. Separately, aggregated analyst indicators during April pointed to an “overweight” stance with a mean price target around $361, suggesting that, despite recent volatility around quarterly deliveries of results and cost-of-risk debates, the street anticipates upside to fair value anchored by mid–high single-digit revenue growth and double-digit EPS growth in the near term.

Neutral positions from other large investment houses are framed as a wait-and-see approach pending evidence of sustained spread stability and provisioning normalization. Even so, the center of gravity in the reviewed period leans toward constructive expectations for the upcoming print. The bullish cohort argues that the modeled revenue expansion of 9.27% and EPS growth of 21.80% for the quarter demonstrate both pricing power and expense discipline, with a non-trivial contribution from fee and protection lines. They also point to the previous quarter’s 41.42% year-over-year EPS increase as proof that operating leverage is manifesting, even when top-line growth is more modest at 2.26%.

The bullish case emphasizes three themes that could validate higher target prices over the next twelve months. First, a pre-provision operating profit profile that remains resilient as funding costs stabilize would signal enduring net interest income traction. Second, fee and insurance contributions can continue to diversify the revenue base, making earnings less sensitive to interest-rate path uncertainty and allowing EPS to grow faster than revenue. Third, credit costs that trend toward normalization—particularly in microfinance—would reduce volatility in quarterly results and allow more of the operational improvements to reach the bottom line. If the quarter’s release on May 14, 2026, aligns with the indicated revenue of 6.06 billion and EPS of 24.27, the bullish cohort expects the market to reward operating consistency and clearer visibility on capital returns.

In sum, the weight of recent analyst commentary in the specified period is skewed toward a bullish interpretation of near-term fundamentals and the earnings setup. The majority view expects the company to deliver a quarter that is consistent with the 9.27% year-over-year revenue growth forecast and the 21.80% year-over-year EPS growth trajectory, with attention focused on provisioning trends, fee income stability, and the cost base. Should these elements come through as anticipated, the implied return on capital profile and forecast EPS path are seen as sufficient to support constructive target prices and an outperforming stance relative to near-term expectations.