March 18 – Key data to watch today (Wednesday): 20:30 US February PPI Year-over-Year 20:30 US February PPI Month-over-Month 21:45 Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision 22:00 US January Factory Orders Month-over-Month 22:30 US EIA Crude Oil Inventories (Week ending March 13) 22:30 US EIA Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (Week ending March 13) 22:30 US EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventories (Week ending March 13) 22:30 Bank of Canada Governor and Senior Deputy Governor Press Conference Next Day 02:00 Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision and Summary of Economic Projections Next Day 02:30 Fed Chair Powell Press Conference
Ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision tonight, market sentiment is largely cautious, with a strong wait-and-see attitude prevailing. During the day, focus will be on the US February PPI data, a key indicator reflecting inflationary pressures. Higher-than-expected figures could reinforce the Fed's stance on maintaining elevated interest rates, strengthening the US dollar and likely keeping gold under pressure. Conversely, weaker data may provide a brief rebound for gold. Additionally, Eurozone CPI, US factory orders, and crude oil inventory reports will indirectly influence market sentiment and increase short-term volatility.
Geopolitically, ongoing tensions in the Middle East continue to provide theoretical safe-haven support for gold. However, this influence is significantly overshadowed by the impending Fed announcement and is unlikely to alter the broader trend. Market participants are awaiting the Fed's interest rate decision and Chair Powell's remarks at 2:00 AM, which are expected to be the primary driver of gold's near-term direction.
Regarding gold, yesterday's trading session concluded with a doji candlestick pattern, suggesting a continuation of the current consolidation phase during the Asian and European sessions today. The Fed's decision tonight is highly anticipated to break this stalemate and establish a clear directional move. The analysis leans towards a scenario where gold tests lower levels before recovering. Key short-term support is seen near 4990; a dip towards this area may present a buying opportunity. If volatile, wash-out moves similar to yesterday occur, a retest of yesterday's low around 4970 could also be considered for long positions. The major support level remains at 4910, viewed as a more conservative zone for establishing long positions. If no suitable entry point emerges before the data release, maintaining a观望 stance is advisable. Immediate resistance is positioned near 5020; a sustained break above this level could lead to a test of yesterday's high. If price action fails to surpass 5044, a short position might be considered. A decisive break above 5044 would open the path for further gains towards the 5080-5120 range.
Trading strategy suggestion: During the day, consider short positions near 5020/5040 and long positions near 4990/4970. Implement protective stops of 6-8 points, targeting profits of 12-20 points.