Rebar: Yesterday, rebar futures continued to rise. By the close, the price for the rebar 2610 contract was 3,286 yuan per ton, an increase of 23 yuan per ton, or 0.7%, from the previous trading day's close, with open interest increasing by 26,600 lots. Spot prices also rose, and trading volume picked up. In Tangshan, the price for Qian'an common billet increased by 20 yuan per ton to 3,120 yuan per ton. In Hangzhou, the price for Zhongtian rebar rose by 20 yuan per ton to 3,310 yuan per ton. The national trading volume for building materials was 119,500 tons. According to Gangyin data, national building materials inventory fell by 2.56% this week to 6.0107 million tons, while hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 4.09% to 2.7532 million tons, a significant drop. Recently, steel mills have seen good export orders for billets, with some mills' export order schedules filled through July. Mills are prioritizing billet production, reducing rebar output, which has significantly alleviated market supply pressure. Steel mills generally exhibit strong price support intentions. At the same time, post-May Day holiday, procurement and inventory replenishment enthusiasm among mid-to-downstream users has increased, leading to improved market transactions and a strong boost to market confidence. It is expected that rebar futures will continue to exhibit strong, albeit volatile, performance in the short term.

Iron Ore: Yesterday, the main iron ore futures contract, i2609, rose, closing at 822.5 yuan per ton, an increase of 8 yuan per ton, or 0.98%, from the previous trading day's close. Trading volume was 261,200 lots, with open interest increasing by 13,300 lots. Mainstream port spot prices: Qingdao Port PB fines (60.8%) at 797 yuan, up 4; Super Special fines at 665 yuan, up 3. On the supply side, Mysteel data shows Australian shipments at 18.233 million tons, down 426,000 tons week-on-week, with shipments to China at 15.687 million tons, down 1.019 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 4.687 million tons, down 4.173 million tons. Arrivals at 47 Chinese ports totaled 24.106 million tons, down 1.701 million tons. The current high hot metal production supports spot restocking demand, particularly the rigid demand from pre- and post-May Day holiday replenishment. If demand maintains current levels, port inventories are unlikely to see a significant drawdown. Overall, fundamental upward support is insufficient, but iron ore price resilience persists. Short-term prices are expected to move within a range.

Coking Coal: Yesterday, coking coal futures rose. By the close, the price for the coking coal 2609 contract was 1,309 yuan per ton, an increase of 23 yuan per ton, or 1.79%, with open interest increasing by 9,235 lots. Spot prices: Jiexiu primary coking coal (A<10.5, S<1.3, G>80) at 14,000 yuan per ton, up 20; Mongolian #5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu port at 1,123 yuan per ton, up 3; Mongolian #3 washed coal at 1,219 yuan per ton, up 19 from the previous period. On the supply side, most mines in the region maintain normal production. Recently, some raw coal prices have increased, and washed coal prices remain relatively firm. Auction prices for some low-sulfur, high-quality coal types have seen slight increases, with most mines experiencing smooth shipments. On the demand side, hot metal production remains high. The third round of coke price increases has been implemented. With profit recovery, coking plants have increased production enthusiasm, leading to higher rigid demand for raw coal. However, after the third price hike, further upward room for coke prices is limited. Short-term coking coal futures are expected to trade within a range.

Coke: Yesterday, coke futures rose. By the close, the price for the coke 2609 contract was 1,868 yuan per ton, an increase of 40 yuan per ton, or 2.19%, with open interest increasing by 312 lots. Spot prices: Port coke spot market quotations were stable. Rizhao Port quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke spot price was 1,550 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous period. On the supply side, some steel mills in Xingtai, Tianjin, and Shijiazhuang raised prices for wet-quench coke by 50 yuan per ton and dry-quench coke by 55 yuan per ton, effective from 00:00 on May 11, 2026, marking the partial implementation of the third round of coke price increases. Recently, rising raw coal prices have strengthened support for coke prices. Simultaneously, downstream procurement demand has strengthened, leading to increased sales orders for coking plants. On the demand side, steel mill profits have improved significantly, resulting in high production enthusiasm. Daily hot metal production remains high, maintaining good demand for coke. However, after the third price hike, further increases may be difficult. Short-term coke futures are expected to trade within a range.

Ferromanganese (Silico Manganese): On Monday, ferromanganese futures prices weakened. The main contract closed at 5,912 yuan per ton, down 1.7% week-on-week, with open interest increasing by 38,530 lots to 401,700 lots. Market prices for 6517 ferromanganese across regions were approximately 5,800-6,100 yuan per ton, with Inner Mongolia and Ningxia regions down 50 yuan per ton from the previous day. Yesterday, the overall performance of the ferrous sector showed slight divergence, with alloy prices relatively weak. Ferromanganese futures prices trended lower. Recently, fundamental support for ferromanganese has been weak. On the supply side, the industry's voluntary energy-saving and emission-reduction efforts have ceased. Ferromanganese producers in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have gradually resumed production, with weekly output continuing to increase. On the demand side, weekly rebar production fell 5% week-on-week to 1.9665 million tons, hitting a new five-year low for the same period. Weekly steel mill demand for ferromanganese also declined, similarly reaching a five-year low for the period. On the cost side, recent cost support for ferromanganese has been weak. Overseas quotations have fallen, downstream demand is limited with procurement mainly for rigid needs, putting pressure on manganese ore prices. Overall, with increasing supply, weak demand, high inventories, and limited cost support, ferromanganese futures prices are expected to remain weak and volatile in the short term.

Ferrosilicon: On Monday, ferrosilicon futures prices weakened. The main contract closed at 5,696 yuan per ton, down 2.13% week-on-week, with open interest increasing by 12,953 lots to 257,300 lots. Aggregate prices for 72 ferrosilicon across regions were 5,400-5,450 yuan per ton, with Inner Mongolia and Ningxia regions down 50 yuan per ton from the previous day. Yesterday, the overall performance of the ferrous sector showed slight divergence, with alloy prices relatively weak, though ferrosilicon futures prices moved higher week-on-week. Fundamentally, on the supply side, weekly ferrosilicon production last week fell slightly by 1.5% week-on-week to 111,700 tons, a year-on-year increase, placing it at the median level for recent comparable periods. On the demand side, weekly demand from sample steel mills for ferrosilicon fell 2.35% week-on-week to 19,400 tons, a new five-year low for the period. On the inventory side, stocks at 60 sample enterprises increased by 6,980 tons week-on-week to 67,110 tons, still below last year's level. On the cost side, electricity prices for ferrosilicon in Ningxia and Qinghai fell slightly in April, while prices for blue-coke small material remained relatively stable. Overall, with supply slightly down, inventories up week-on-week, and costs down in some production areas, ferrosilicon futures prices are also expected to exhibit weak, range-bound performance in the short term.