BMO Maintains Bullish Gold Outlook: Rally Paused but Intact, Prices to Stay Above $5,000 Next Year

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BMO analysts stated in a Tuesday report that while gold and silver prices may continue to decline due to economic shifts triggered by conflict in the Middle East, the upward trend is only temporarily stalled, not reversed. The firm raised its gold price forecasts for the second half and the end of the year. BMO noted that the Iran conflict has not weakened but rather reinforced the structural factors supporting metals and mining. The key question is when markets will gain enough confidence in conflict resolution to resume adding exposure. BMO increased its average gold price forecast for the third quarter to $4,800 per ounce, up 7% from its prior estimate. The fourth-quarter forecast was raised to $4,900 per ounce, a 9% increase. The full-year average price projection was lifted to $4,846 per ounce, compared to a previous forecast of $4,550. BMO remains optimistic about gold's trajectory into 2027, expecting prices to remain consistently above $5,000, with an annual average of $5,125—a 26% increase from earlier projections. The bank is also positive on silver but suggests this year may represent a peak for silver prices. It forecasts an average silver price of $74.50 per ounce in 2026, declining to $64.20 per ounce the following year. BMO emphasized that the long-term bull case for gold—driven by diversification, currency debasement, and de-dollarization—remains valid, though a sustained shift from selling to buying may only materialize after geopolitical tensions ease. On Tuesday, gold and silver prices closed nearly unchanged. COMEX gold futures for March delivery fell 0.1% to $4,399.30 per ounce, marking a fifth consecutive decline. Meanwhile, March silver futures rose 0.3% to $69.274 per ounce, ending a nine-session losing streak during which the front-month contract had dropped more than 22%.

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