Abstract

Sunoco LP will release its fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 17, 2026 Pre-Market; investors will weigh the forecasted revenue expansion against an expected year-over-year decline in EPS, with margin execution and segment mix shaping market reaction.

Market Forecast

Consensus expectations derived from market forecasts point to Sunoco LP delivering revenue of 9.41 billion (+51.46% year over year), EPS of 1.04 (-38.56% year over year), and EBIT of 353.87 million (+10.32% year over year) for the current quarter; forward gross profit margin and net profit margin forecasts are not available. The main business is projected to remain led by Fuel Distribution and supported by contributions from Terminals and Pipeline Systems, with attention on whether higher volumes translate into margin stability and earnings conversion in the quarter. The most promising revenue-driving segment remains Fuel Distribution, which contributed 5.75 billion in the prior quarter as total company revenue rose 4.89% year over year; the ability to sustain strong sales while managing per-unit margins will be a key focus.

Last Quarter Review

Sunoco LP reported revenue of 6.03 billion, a gross profit margin of 10.71%, GAAP net profit attributable to common unitholders of 137.00 million, a net profit margin of 2.27%, and adjusted EPS of 0.64 (+146.15% year over year) in the prior quarter. Net profit attributable to the parent company increased quarter on quarter by 59.30%, reflecting improved operating performance relative to the preceding period. Fuel Distribution led the top line with 5.75 billion, followed by Terminals at 0.36 billion and Pipeline Systems at 0.20 billion, while total company revenue grew 4.89% year over year.

Current Quarter Outlook

Fuel Distribution

Fuel Distribution is the core revenue engine, and the current-quarter projection of 9.41 billion in total company revenue places execution in this segment at the center of the earnings narrative. The last quarter’s revenue mix shows Fuel Distribution at 5.75 billion, an anchor that underscores the segment’s role in driving the top line. This quarter’s challenge is whether robust sales can overcome EPS headwinds, given the forecast of EPS at 1.04 (-38.56% year over year) despite the significant revenue increase. Margin management—reflected in last quarter’s 10.71% gross profit margin and 2.27% net profit margin—will be closely watched to assess how pricing, cost of goods sold, and operating efficiencies affect earnings conversion. With revenue growth expected, the outcome depends on maintaining per-unit economics that prevent dilution of profitability, aligning EBIT improvements (+10.32% year over year forecast) with net income per unit.

Most Promising Business

Among the operating areas, Pipeline Systems and Terminals together provide steady contributions that can help stabilize overall margin trends while Fuel Distribution drives the headline revenue growth. Pipeline Systems generated 0.20 billion in the last quarter and Terminals contributed 0.36 billion; both carry operational characteristics that can complement the scale of Fuel Distribution by diluting volatility in margins at the consolidated level. The current quarter’s EBIT forecast of 353.87 million (+10.32% year over year) suggests operating performance improvement, and the degree to which throughput and storage activities support consistent contribution will matter for overall profitability. The interplay of segment results will be pivotal; if non-fuel activities support cost absorption and operating leverage, they can play a constructive role in offsetting any per-unit margin pressure in Fuel Distribution.

Key Factors Likely to Impact the Stock Price This Quarter

The first determinant for the market reaction is whether the company meets or exceeds the revenue forecast of 9.41 billion while showing credible earnings conversion, as signaled by whether EBIT improvement aligns with net earnings and EPS outcomes. The second determinant involves margin execution; last quarter’s 10.71% gross profit margin and 2.27% net profit margin set a baseline, and investors will look for signs that higher volumes are not achieved at the expense of profitability. The third determinant is the relationship between operating results and EPS, where the projected decline in EPS (-38.56% year over year) creates a hurdle; the resolution of this gap—through cost control, efficient procurement, and disciplined pricing—will shape sentiment and price action. A favorable read-through would be a combination of high revenue growth, stable gross margin, improving EBIT, and EPS resilience versus expectations; conversely, a scenario where top-line strength does not translate into earnings would likely weigh on the stock.

Analyst Opinions

Across the review period from January 1, 2026 to February 10, 2026, qualifying analyst previews specific to Sunoco LP’s upcoming quarter were limited, and a clear countable ratio of bullish versus bearish views cannot be established within the specified timeframe. Market-derived expectations indicate a cautious stance centered on the forecast EPS decline (-38.56% year over year) despite the projected revenue increase (+51.46% year over year), which frames the dominant interpretation of the setup as balanced to guarded. The prevailing analytical focus is not on outright directional calls but on whether Sunoco LP can bridge the gap between robust top-line growth and earnings per unit through margin discipline and operating leverage; this is the crux of how institutions are likely to assess performance on February 17, 2026. The consensus tilt implied by the forecasts suggests investors will prioritize EPS quality and cash generation signals alongside the headline revenue figure, with Fuel Distribution’s execution and company-wide cost control serving as the key validation points.