Global oilseed markets saw profit-taking pressure on Thursday, with CBOT soybean futures settling lower as crude oil prices retreated. Soybean meal outperformed soybeans in gains, while soybean oil declined. Weekly export sales data revealed US soybean net sales of 1.701 million tonnes for the week, aligning with prior market expectations.

In the domestic market, protein meal contracts rallied with rising open interest, displaying robust strength. Rising import costs served as the primary catalyst, with spot prices following the upward trajectory. Approaching the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, downstream buyers exhibited urgent restocking needs, supporting transaction volumes. September soybean arrivals are estimated at around 10 million tonnes, indicating sustained high supply levels. While domestic soybean meal supply remains ample, cost expectations are strengthening; market participants should monitor capital flows closely.

Oils and Fats Market

BMD palm oil futures dropped over 1% on Thursday, pressured by expectations of rising September inventories, weak export performance, and softer competing vegetable oils. SPPOMA data showed Malaysian palm oil production for September 1-15 increased 18.75% month-on-month in yield, with oil extraction rates up 0.48%, resulting in a total production gain of 21.28%. Earlier high-frequency export data indicated shipments fell 17.8%-25.6% during the same period, implying significant inventory accumulation pressure for Malaysian palm oil in September.

Reports suggest India may reduce vegetable oil import tariffs to control domestic inflation. Additionally, news emerged that Indonesia's Kalimantan region could see palm oil output decline 12%-15% in the fourth quarter. Canadian canola futures advanced, supported by a weaker Canadian dollar, while unfavorable harvest weather cast a shadow over the market. Domestically, vegetable oils edged higher with the oil-meal ratio weakening. Lower crude oil prices and divergent foreign oilseed markets limited domestic gains. Steel Union data indicated domestic oil inventories continued climbing last week, with soybean oil stocks near 1.5 million tonnes, palm oil around 940,000 tonnes, and rapeseed oil exceeding 540,000 tonnes. Going forward, attention should focus on Hormuz Strait shipping conditions, vegetable oil consumption, and capital flows.

Live Hog Market

Live hog futures stabilized on Thursday, with the main January 2026 contract trading in a range and closing 0.9% higher at 11,230 yuan per tonne. According to Zhuochuang data, China's average live hog spot price reached 10.64 yuan per kilogram yesterday, down 0.06 yuan from the previous day. In the benchmark delivery region of Henan, average hog prices were 10.78 yuan per kilogram, up 0.06 yuan, while Liaoning held steady, and Guangdong, Sichuan, and Shandong saw declines. Upstream farming operations maintained normal slaughter volumes with ample supply, but demand has yet to show significant improvement, dragging prices lower across multiple regions. After falling to lows, futures stabilized and consolidated, though prices are likely to remain range-bound until spot rates improve. Market attention should focus on spot price movements and sentiment influences on futures.

Egg Market

Egg futures underwent a consolidative correction on Thursday, with the main November 2026 contract closing 0.24% lower at 3,789 yuan per 500 kilograms after intraday fluctuations. Zhuochuang data showed national average egg prices at 5.36 yuan per jin yesterday, unchanged from the prior session. In production areas, Ningjin pink-shell eggs were quoted at 5.3 yuan per jin, and Heishan brown-shell eggs at 5.1 yuan per jin, both unchanged. In consumption areas, Puxi brown-shell eggs held at 5.42 yuan per jin, while Guangzhou market brown-shell eggs fell 0.05 yuan to 5.45 yuan per jin. Supply remains ample with slower market turnover; most consumption-area prices stabilized, though some regions experienced mixed movements. As the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches, peak-season stocking activity is gradually concluding. Spot prices have stopped rising, and futures remain cautious following an earlier rebound. Risk of spot price pullbacks during the final stocking phase warrants attention.

Corn Market

This week, corn futures declined with rising open interest, with prices falling sharply and the trading range shifting lower. Northeastern corn prices remain weak, with Beigang port purchase prices cut by 30 yuan per tonne and production-area prices adjusted downward to varying degrees. Futures market performance has been lackluster, and new-crop prices in North China falling below Northeastern levels have exerted adverse pressure. Northeastern corn currently lacks clear advantages in both pricing and quality. In North China, the pace of price declines has slowed; after sustained drops, deep-processing mill deliveries have decreased, with a few enterprises raising prices slightly. However, new-crop season is underway with summer corn supplies gradually increasing, suggesting prices will maintain a volatile, weak trajectory overall. Consumption-area corn trades in a narrow band with a generally soft bias. Deep processors are purchasing small quantities on an as-needed basis, showing little appetite for large-scale stocking. Imported grains continue diverting demand, transaction volumes remain light, and high-quality supplies sustain premium pricing. Short-term market momentum is unlikely to improve meaningfully. Technically, corn aggregate contract open interest keeps expanding, with near-month positions declining and deferred-month positions rising. The November contract broke below the 2,200 yuan per tonne psychological level today, with the sharp drop shattering rebound expectations and intensifying technical bearish sentiment. Prices are expected to maintain a weak performance.

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