On March 2, global gold prices continued their upward trajectory, successfully breaking through the $5,400 per ounce threshold. As of 16:00 on March 2, the spot price of gold in London was reported at $5,407 per ounce, while the main gold futures contract in New York reached $5,417 per ounce. During the trading session, the New York gold futures contract even climbed to a high of $5,434 per ounce, marking an increase of over 3% compared to the previous trading day.
According to an analysis by a senior associate director at a research firm, the recent rally in gold prices is primarily driven by heightened risk aversion due to escalating geopolitical tensions. The further deterioration of the situation in the Middle East has directly intensified geopolitical risks, prompting a rapid rise in market避险情绪 and significantly boosting gold prices.
As international gold prices continue to climb, the domestic market has also responded. Recently, several well-known domestic gold brands collectively announced price adjustments. On February 26, Junpei Gold issued a notice stating that it would comprehensively adjust the prices of its jewelry-grade gold starting March 9. On February 28, Laopu Gold officially implemented its first price adjustment for 2026; data from its online flagship store indicates that product prices have generally increased by 20% to 30%. Additionally, Chow Tai Fook has indicated that it will initiate a new round of price increases for its gold products in mid-March, with fixed-price items likely to be the focus of the adjustment, reflecting market optimism about future gold prices.
Gold investment has also gained momentum. On March 2, gold ETFs, including those managed by Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, ChinaAMC, and Guotai, collectively strengthened, with half-day gains exceeding 3%.
Looking ahead, the research director noted that short-term gold price movements will heavily depend on the spread of geopolitical conflicts. If conflicts escalate further, gold prices are expected to continue their upward trend; conversely, market risk premiums may quickly dissipate, likely causing gold prices to retreat from previous gains.
A precious metals and new energy research group head at Nanhua Futures stated that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions are entering a sensitive period, and the monetary policy cycle will impact gold price trends. Over the medium to long term, the analyst maintains a bullish outlook on gold prices. Factors such as the restructuring of the global monetary system, unsustainable U.S. fiscal policies, and the ongoing erosion of U.S. dollar credibility are expected to accelerate adjustments in the foreign reserve structures of global central banks, thereby providing structural support for a long-term upward shift in gold prices.
The World Gold Council recently highlighted in a report that gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, often demonstrates its value during periods of high risk. Simultaneously, as both an investment and consumer product, gold can deliver positive returns during periods of economic growth. Against a backdrop of persistent political and economic uncertainties, as well as ongoing concerns about the prospects of stock and bond markets, this dynamic characteristic of gold is expected to continue.
However, a vice president and international finance expert at a foreign exchange research institute cautioned against盲目 optimism regarding future gold price trends. Currently, the pace of gold purchases by most central banks has slowed, and from the perspective of the U.S. dollar's purchasing power, current gold prices are already in a relatively overvalued state. If the Federal Reserve maintains its current policies or even raises interest rates in the future, it could negatively impact gold prices.