International Air Transport Association (IATA) data for June 2026 reveals that global air passenger demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), fell 1.7% compared to the same month in 2025. Excluding the Middle East, the decline narrows to 0.6%.

Total capacity, tracked by available seat kilometers (ASK), contracted 1.3% year-on-year, with the passenger load factor settling at 84.2%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from June 2025.

International demand dropped 0.9% year-on-year, though it rose 1.1% when the Middle East is excluded. Capacity for international routes fell 0.6%, while the load factor reached 84.2%, down 0.2 percentage points. Meanwhile, domestic demand decreased by 3.0% against the prior year, with capacity down 2.4% and a load factor of 84.0%, a decline of 0.5 percentage points.

The overall 1.7% contraction in global air travel demand was primarily driven by weaker performances in the Chinese, US, and Japanese domestic markets, alongside persistently soft, albeit improved, international demand from Middle Eastern carriers. While the region has shown some recovery, renewed geopolitical tensions continue to hinder a full rebound, and rising fuel prices are likely to push airfares higher, adding to passenger costs.

People continue to travel, providing essential support to global economic growth. Nevertheless, stabilizing the Middle East and restoring normal oil supplies would clearly enhance the outlook for airlines worldwide, national economies, and societies at large.

Regional International Markets

International RPK decreased 0.9%, with capacity down 0.6%. Excluding the Middle East, international traffic grew 1.1%. Asia-Pacific carriers recorded a 0.4% year-on-year increase in demand, though capacity slipped 1.1%, resulting in a load factor of 84.0%, which was up 1.3 percentage points from June 2025. The moderation in growth stems from some airlines trimming short-haul routes amid higher fuel costs, with intra-Asia international capacity falling 4.8%.

European airlines saw demand climb 1.5% year-on-year, with capacity up 2.0% and a load factor of 87.1%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points. The Europe-Asia route was the fastest-growing major international corridor, posting an 11.0% surge in demand. Middle Eastern airlines experienced a 14% drop in demand year-on-year, with capacity down 11% and a load factor of 76.3%, a decline of 2.6 percentage points. Ongoing conflict in Iran continues to weigh on passenger traffic, though the monthly rate of decline has halved since April, reflecting both a gradual normalization of regional flight operations and a low comparison base from June 2025, when traffic was disrupted by the "Twelve-Day War."

North American airlines reported a 1.0% decline in demand year-on-year, with capacity down 0.7% and a load factor of 86.9%, a drop of 0.3 percentage points. Latin American carriers posted a 3.5% increase in demand, with capacity up 6.3%, though the load factor fell 2.2 percentage points to 81.6%. African airlines led growth with a 6.7% rise in demand, alongside a 7.0% increase in capacity, while the load factor dipped 0.3 percentage points to 74.2%.

Domestic Market Overview

Domestic RPK declined 3.0% year-on-year in June 2026. Brazil was the only major market to post growth, with domestic traffic up 0.9%, while Australia remained flat. All other major markets recorded declines, with the steepest contractions seen in China (down 5.2%) and Japan (down 3.8%), likely attributable to elevated fuel prices. Load factors also weakened in several markets, with Brazil experiencing the largest drop of 2.5 percentage points.