If one were to identify the defining theme for China's public fund market in 2025, the answer might not be a star fund manager or a blockbuster product, but rather the word "index." This year, the scale of index funds stands at the 8 trillion yuan mark, with the market witnessing an asset allocation trend led by index-based investing. It is no longer just a supplementary part of asset allocation but has become the "main channel" for trillions in capital entering the market.
This year, driven by a market favoring growth stocks in the A-share market, sector and thematic ETFs have leapt to the forefront as the most prominent protagonists on the stage. From artificial intelligence to communication equipment, from semiconductors to robotics and aerospace, capital has poured into "golden tracks" representing national strategic directions and industrial upgrade trends with unprecedented enthusiasm and precision.
As observed by Liang Xing, Assistant General Manager and Director of the Quantitative Investment Department at Guotai Asset Management, the main driver of ETF scale growth in 2024 was broad-based ETFs, whereas in 2025, the protagonists have shifted to sector and thematic ETFs. An era of index-based investing, transitioning from "selecting stocks" to "selecting trends," is arriving. Zhao Yunyang, General Manager and Chief Investment Officer of the Index and Quantitative Investment Department at Bosera Asset Management, stated that the current development characteristics of domestic public fund index funds are mainly: diversification, acceleration, and institutionalization.
The weighting of public fund index funds in the total market scale has significantly increased in 2025. Wind data shows that by the end of the third quarter of 2025, the combined total scale of non-monetary market ETFs, ETF feeder funds, and other over-the-counter index funds had approached 8 trillion yuan, with an increase of 2.1 trillion yuan during the year.
Amid the structural行情 of the A-share market, the performance of active equity funds has become increasingly divergent, while index funds have taken the "leading role." Among them, ETFs have attracted capital at a phenomenal speed, becoming the vanguard of index-based investing. Data shows that by the end of 2024, the total scale of ETFs in the market was 4.66 trillion yuan, of which equity ETFs accounted for 2.9 trillion yuan. Just three quarters later, by the end of Q3 2025, the total scale of ETFs in the market had exceeded 6.6 trillion yuan, with the scale of equity ETFs surpassing 3.7 trillion yuan.
Equity ETFs remain the most favored type, but unlike the previous dominance of broad-based ETFs, sector and thematic ETFs have shone brightly this year under the leadership of the growth style. As of December 25, 2025, within the market's equity ETFs, the latest on-market share count for sector ETFs was 326.041 billion units, an increase of over 100 billion units compared to the 222.051 billion units at the end of 2024; the latest on-market share count for thematic ETFs was 771.229 billion units, an increase of nearly 250 billion units compared to the 523.169 billion units at the end of 2024. Behind the surge in shares are both continued net subscriptions to existing funds and the injection of new funds: as of December 25, 11 sector ETFs and 87 thematic ETFs had been listed during the year.
Once capital chooses a sector or thematic ETF, it is equivalent to selecting a basket of stocks, allowing for quick entry into细分 segments, which both reduces stock-picking difficulty and increases exposure to high-growth industries. Simultaneously, policy support and capital market reforms have further enhanced the liquidity and attractiveness of related ETFs.
According to incomplete statistics, among the market's equity ETFs, technology-themed ETFs experienced the most迅猛 share growth, primarily from products established in recent years. As of December 25, the ETF with the highest year-to-date share growth rate was E Fund's Robotics ETF, with a growth rate exceeding 5700%; its share count was only 153 million units at the end of 2024, but its latest share count had reached 8.714 billion units. Bosera's STAR AI ETF saw its share count grow over 3000% year-to-date, Invesco Great Wall's Robotics Industry ETF grew over 2000%, and Fullgoal's Communication Equipment ETF grew over 1500%. In terms of absolute share growth, ChinaAMC's Robotics ETF grew by over 20 billion units year-to-date, ranking fourth among equity ETFs.
The successful turnaround of technology-themed ETFs离不开 the赚钱 effect. Data shows that as of December 25, among the top ten performing equity ETFs by year-to-date gain, 8 were focused on the AI track. Among them, Guotai's ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF led the market with a gain of 151.11%; the top seven equity ETFs all gained over 100%, covering themes like artificial intelligence, communication equipment, and 5G.
The rapid development of ETFs in 2025 has delighted fund industry practitioners and revealed broader future prospects for the sector. Liang Xing noted that ETF scale growth has been very fast over the past two years; the main driver in 2024 was broad-based ETFs, purchased by long-term capital such as national team funds and insurance capital, targeting products related to the CSI 300, CSI A500, and the STAR Market.
Liang Xing observed that the main driver of scale growth shifted to sector and thematic ETFs in 2025. Following the market upturn in mid-to-late June, these ETFs experienced explosive expansion in the third quarter. Liang has firsthand experience: the scale of sector and thematic ETFs布局 by Guotai Fund has nearly doubled during the year, with particularly迅猛 growth in Q3, confirming the热度 of this track.
Zhao Yunyang stated that the current development characteristics of domestic public fund index funds are mainly: diversification, acceleration, and institutionalization. Diversification refers to the launch in 2025, through joint efforts by regulators and the industry, of broad-based ETFs like the STAR Composite Index ETF, STAR Bond ETF, and benchmark market-making credit bond ETFs;自由现金流 strategy ETFs; and sector/thematic ETFs reflecting current industrial and tech trends, such as STAR AI, STAR Semiconductor Materials & Equipment, and Satellite Industry ETFs. Zhao believes these products provide investors with excellent配置 tools, further diversifying the ETF asset spectrum.
Acceleration refers to the accelerated growth in both the scale and number of ETFs in 2025. As of December 24, non-monetary ETF shares increased by 689.94 billion units, a 27.6%增幅, reaching 3.2 trillion units; total scale increased by 2.2 trillion yuan, a 38.1%增幅, reaching 5.8 trillion yuan. 350 new ETFs were issued, bringing the total number to 1,482.
Institutionalization refers to the increasing participation of professional institutional investors. According to the "Index and Index Fund Q3 2025 Analysis Report" published by HuaZheng Index, as of the end of Q3 2025, institutional investors accounted for an average of 54.6% of China's non-monetary ETFs.
Zhao Yunyang indicated that pension funds, insurance capital, and enterprise annuities represent long-term capital. The large-scale allocation of such capital to A-shares via ETFs can shift market pricing power towards passive tools, forming a "long-term capital, long-term investment" ecosystem that helps reduce market volatility. Rong Ying, Director of Quantitative Investment at ChinaAMC, believes domestic index-based investing is entering a strategic development period. E Fund stated that the expansion speed of the domestic index investment market is remarkably rapid; at the new starting point of 8 trillion yuan in scale, index investing is transitioning from "scale growth" to "quality improvement."
Facing the vast blue ocean of index-based investing, major public fund companies successively "drew their swords" in 2025, initiating a battle for future positioning. Wind data shows that as of December 24, 2025, including ETFs currently being issued, a total of 357 new ETFs were issued during the year, of which 236 were equity ETFs, accounting for over 66%.
The technology track became the "main battlefield." Zhao Yunyang observed that institutional capital accelerated its entry into the market in 2025: public funds, insurance capital, northbound capital, etc., continuously flowed into the stock market and集中涌向 thematic ETFs focused on hotspots like robotics, AI, innovative drugs, and Hong Kong-listed tech stocks—sectors that were the brightest in terms of annual industrial trends and performance.
To stand out in the fierce competition for industry布局, major companies began focusing on "refinement" and "differentiation." On one hand, index construction became increasingly细分, moving from broad technology indices to more前瞻性的 "narrow-audience" themes like "satellites," "humanoid robots," and "general aviation." On the other hand,泛科技 broad-based ETF products also began to emerge, attempting to provide investors with more robust excess returns on top of beta returns, such as multi-tiered broad-based index products represented by the STAR 50, STAR 100, STAR 200, and STAR Composite indices.
According to information on the CSRC website, several public fund companies have submitted applications for ETF products in细分 tech fields like information technology and biotechnology.
"The future competition will no longer be about simple replication and imitation, but will test fund companies' depth of industry understanding, product innovation capability, and comprehensive service capabilities. Whoever can earlier and more accurately discover the next 'golden track' with long-term growth potential and transform it into high-quality index products will gain a head start in this 'long-distance race,'" an industry insider stated.
The insider also noted that this race in the tech track not only accelerates the iteration of public fund products and the upgrade of capabilities but also injects a continuous stream of long-term capital into technology innovation enterprises, forming a virtuous cycle of technology-industry-finance.
As of December 25, 2025, 175 equity ETFs had achieved year-to-date gains exceeding 50%; if cross-border ETFs are included, this number approaches 200. Most ETFs achieving high gains were those布局 in growth sectors related to major technology themes.
Although轮番上演行情 in tech-themed ETFs, Liang Xing does not recommend investors concentrate their bets on a single track, especially the highly volatile tech sector. Liang explicitly stated that the idea of普通投资者 "only wanting to allocate to tech" is very dangerous, as the tech sector is extremely volatile, and only a very few investors with both high risk appetite and承受能力 can do so. She advises investors to adopt an asset allocation mindset, incorporating different assets like gold and bonds into their portfolios to reduce overall volatility. Entering the market with a配置 mindset is the way to "go further."
"We always recommend asset allocation using a 'core + satellite' approach," Liang said. For the core portion, Liang suggests transitioning, based on the market's upward trend, from traditional value-style CSI 300 ETFs towards growth-style CSI A500 ETFs, which offer more exposure. The CSI A500 ETF may still have the potential to outperform the CSI 300 ETF in 2026.
For the satellite portion, Liang recommends a barbell structure configuration: allocating to technology on one end and cash flow on the other. She suggests focusing on the upstream computing power track (thematic ETFs like communications, semiconductor equipment, etc.) for the tech end, and配置 cash flow ETFs on the other end to balance risk.
Liang is optimistic about the computing power track as the core of current tech investment, citing its clear logic and high景气度. North American computing power demand continues to be released alongside Nvidia's chip iterations; communication thematic ETFs covering细分 tracks like optical modules and servers achieved high gains in 2025, benefiting from this trend.
She judges that computing power "likely still has investment opportunities" in 2026, as industry growth remains fast, and current valuations below 30 times are attractive. Domestic computing power (including chip, semiconductor equipment ETFs), while短期内 disturbed by high valuations of new stocks, has certain long-term demand; semiconductor equipment ETFs offer better value due to capacity expansion + low valuations.
As for the AI application端 track, Liang recommends right-side investing, as no现象级 applications have emerged yet.
Looking back at 2025, while the concept of index investing is gradually gaining acceptance, product operation is not easy and tests the overall investment operation capabilities of fund companies. E Fund stated that the investment operation of index products is far from "simple replication"; every环节, from tracking error control and excess return acquisition to全流程 risk management, is filled with technical details and is by no means easy. The professionalism of index investing is reflected in managers'极致 pursuit of细微之处 and years of refinement.
Liang Xing pointed out that, barring extreme market risks, fund managers typically only need to control tracking error and deviation well, which primarily tests their daily ability to design the PCF list, striving to minimize the absolute value of the cash difference.
Currently, index funds are迎接 a magnificent wave of development, which is not only an important milestone in the history of the public fund industry but also a vivid缩影 of the maturation of China's capital market. Industry insiders are full of expectations for the future of index investing.
Liang Xing believes that future technology thematic index funds will cover different stages of industrial development: ranging from前沿 concepts in the "0 to 1" stage to industries already in the "1 to N" high-growth phase. However, the former is often limited by few constituent stocks and small market caps, while once the latter爆发, public fund companies are bound to swarm in for布局, and competition will rapidly intensify.
Liang remains optimistic about ETFs and similar index funds that offer convenient trading, high transparency, and low门槛, as they better align with investor cognition and需求. She believes they will still experience major development over the next 5 to 10 years, with their scale growing from 5 trillion yuan to 10 trillion yuan.
Zhao Yunyang believes that with the start of the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, innovative industries and future industries are receiving政策加码, while some traditional industries are also expected to recover.叠加 regulatory efforts to引导 long-term capital into the market, passive index products like ETFs are expected to continue accelerating their growth in 2026. He anticipates more broad-based, strategy, thematic, and sector ETFs will be布局, leading to more intense competition among fund companies.
Zhao补充 that in the future, it is necessary to promptly promote the launch of innovative varieties like REITs ETFs and multi-asset ETFs, while simultaneously optimizing advisory services and strengthening investor education to consolidate ecosystem maturity. The deepening of passive investment will重构 market pricing logic, forming a more efficient and stable capital allocation system.