【1】Market Performance: The BU main contract 2601 rose steadily during the day, closing at 3,060 yuan with an amplitude of 2.34% and a gain of 1.69%, marking a cumulative 1.0% increase over seven days. The next-month contract 2602 rose 1.26%, maintaining a Contango structure with near-term prices lower than deferred prices. All contracts showed price increases compared to last Friday.

【2】Spot Market: ① Shandong heavy-duty bitumen was priced at 3,030 yuan/ton, flat from the previous day and unchanged over seven days. The Shandong basis stood at -30 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton over seven days. ② East China heavy-duty bitumen traded at 3,240 yuan/ton, flat from the previous day and at a premium to futures. The East China basis was 180 yuan/ton, down 121 yuan/ton over seven days.

【3】Crack Spreads: ① BU-Brent recorded -162 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton over seven days. Due to weak bitumen fundamentals and range-bound crude prices, the crack spread diverged from oil price trends (see Chart 9). BU’s decline has slowed, suggesting limited downside for the crack spread. The BU main contract rose 1.7% on the day, while Brent fell 0.1% (based on 3 PM closing prices). ② BU-SC (+47), BU-LU (+88), and BU-FU (+41) crack spreads all rebounded.

【4】Fundamentals: On the supply side, intermittent shutdowns at major refineries and reduced profitability point to lower output, with Shandong’s operating rates remaining subdued, providing some price support. Demand remains tepid as colder weather sets in, with weak downstream uptake and reluctance to accept high-priced cargoes. Social inventories remain elevated year-on-year, indicating passive destocking. Cost-wise, SC crude’s intraday gain lagged behind bitumen, but overall oil price weakness may limit upside support. Bitumen fundamentals remain lackluster, with winter stockpiling trends warranting attention.

【5】Short-Term Outlook: Fundamentally, prices remain weak, constrained by soft demand and inventory pressure. Winter stockpiling dynamics will be key. Pre-year-end OPEC+ supply hikes may weigh on oil prices, likely dragging bitumen lower. Technically, bitumen prices are range-bound near lows, with limited downside expected.

【6】Strategy: ① Consider profit-taking on short positions in the 2601 contract; ② Sell 2601 put options; ③ Take profits on BU-Brent crack spread shorts at lower levels.