Guolian Minsheng Securities released a research report indicating that the bank-insurance channel is expected to become a significant driver of premium and NBV growth for the life insurance industry by 2026, with leading companies likely to expand their advantages. Supported by strong household demand for stable-yield financial products, banks' focus on intermediary income contributions, and the continued deepening of the "unified reporting and execution" policy in the bank-insurance channel, new premium income and NBV margins via this channel are projected to remain stable or improve. This trend is anticipated to support positive NBV growth for bank-insurance operations. Leading insurers, benefiting from more diverse product offerings and superior services, are expected to gain customer preference. Consequently, banks are inclined to strengthen cooperation with top-tier insurance firms. The securities firm forecasts that leading insurers will continue to increase their market share within the bank-insurance channel.
Key viewpoints from Guolian Minsheng Securities are as follows:
Strong demand for household deposit reallocation is driving new premium growth through the bank-insurance channel. Influenced by factors such as low household risk appetite, the maturity of substantial household deposits, and continuously declining bank deposit interest rates, some individuals may shift their funds from deposits to insurance products. Currently popular participating insurance products in the industry offer relatively higher yields and lower volatility, aligning well with bank customers' needs for stable asset allocation. As insurers continue to enhance cooperation with bank branches, participating insurance products are expected to further attract households' reallocated savings.
Narrowing net interest margins and intensified competition are increasing banks' emphasis on intermediary income and insurance service enhancements. Banks currently face challenges including compressed net interest margins and heightened competition in wealth management services. There is an urgent need to boost competitiveness by vigorously developing non-interest income businesses and improving product supply and comprehensive service capabilities. Regarding non-interest businesses, the intermediary income generated from distributing products like insurance is becoming increasingly important for banks to expand non-interest revenue scales and diversify income sources. Concerning product supply and comprehensive service capabilities, savings-oriented and protection-oriented insurance products, along with services such as health management and retirement communities provided by insurers, can help banks better serve their customers.
Insurers with deep roots in the bank-insurance channel and leading layouts in health and retirement ecosystems are expected to increase their share within this channel. Driven by factors such as the "unified reporting and execution" policy reducing channel expense ratios and regulatory easing of the "one bank to three insurers" cooperation restriction, fee competition in the bank-insurance channel is becoming more rational. In this context, small and medium-sized insurers find it difficult to compete for premium market share by heavily investing in expenses. In contrast, leading insurers, leveraging advantages such as brand value and comprehensive service capabilities, are likely to gain favor from both customers and banks, enabling them to stand out in the bank-insurance market competition.
Risk warnings include intensified industry competition, economic recovery falling short of expectations, declining long-term interest rates, significant changes in regulatory policies, weak customer demand, and potential deviations in estimates.