Everbright Securities released a research report stating that animated films successfully drove the recovery of the overall box office in the 2025 film market. However, the blockbuster performance of "Nezha 2" (contributing over 15 billion yuan in box office revenue alone) overshadowed the mediocre performance of mid-tier content and the overall weakness in demand. Looking ahead to 2026, the firm believes the film market will transition from being "supported by a single blockbuster" to a phase of "multiple strong performers resonating" and structural recovery. Although the first quarter of 2026 faces pressure from the high base set by "Nezha 2" in the same period of 2025, the market is expected to return to a path of normalized recovery and show moderate growth for the full year, driven by a diversification of top domestic film genres and a recovery in the supply of imported films. It is advised to monitor the scheduling progress of films for the 2026 Spring Festival holiday and pay close attention to their performance. The firm maintains a "Buy" rating on the internet media industry. The main views of Everbright Securities are as follows.
During the 2025 year-end holiday season (November 26 to December 31), the national total box office reached 5.345 billion yuan, representing a 75.25% year-on-year increase and setting a new five-year high for the period in China's box office history. However, the box office performance for the New Year's Eve period (December 31) in 2025 was weak, with revenue of 211 million yuan marking a 45% decline compared to the previous year. As of December 31, 2025, one film, "Pegasus 3," has been officially scheduled for the 2026 Spring Festival holiday. It is recommended to closely follow the scheduling progress of other films for the 2026 Spring Festival period.
Review of the 2025 Film Market: Animated films led industry growth, box office revenue was highly concentrated in top-tier titles, and audience choice became more cautious. 1) In terms of film filings and the number of new releases: From January to November 2025, a total of 2,472 films were filed for approval nationwide, showing a slight decrease year-on-year. The total number of new releases in 2025 further declined to 464, with the supply of highly anticipated top-tier films (those with over 10,000 or 100,000 "want-to-see" indicators) also decreasing. 2) Box office performance: The national total box office in 2025 once again surpassed 50 billion yuan, reaching 51.832 billion yuan. The revenue share box office was 46.683 billion yuan, recovering to 80% of the 2019 level. Total annual admissions reached 1.238 billion, close to the 2023 level. Market concentration increased significantly, with the top five films collectively accounting for over 50% of the total box office, a figure notably higher than in the previous two years. Regarding viewing behavior, national cinema admissions recovered to 71% of the 2019 level. The average ticket price saw a slight decrease for two consecutive years. The occupancy rate in 2025 slightly rebounded to 7.1% compared to 2024 but remained below the 2019 level, indicating more cautious audience choices and continued pressure on attendance for non-hit films. 3) Film content: The Chinese film market in 2025 displayed distinct characteristics of genre diversification and content differentiation. Animated films performed particularly well, emerging as the core driver of annual market growth, with cumulative box office exceeding 24.5 billion yuan—nearly half of the total box office. "Nezha 2," primarily produced and distributed by Enlight Media, became the central box office driver of 2025 with 15.4 billion yuan in revenue, far surpassing its predecessor's 5 billion yuan performance. 4) Cinema operators: Small and medium-sized cinemas continued to exit the market, with market share concentrating towards leading cinema chains. Major cinema operators are actively transitioning towards "non-ticket economy" models, vigorously developing "film + consumption" and "film + IP trendy toys," and actively expanding "film + experiential scenarios" formats. This strategy aims to transform cinemas from mere screening venues into comprehensive entertainment consumption spaces, thereby enhancing their immersive entertainment attributes.
Monitor the scheduling progress of films for the 2026 Spring Festival holiday. With "Pegasus 3" being the first to confirm its release date, public attention and discussion surrounding the Spring Festival lineup continue to intensify. As of December 31, 2025, "Boonie Bears: Always Have Bears," considered a regular fixture for the holiday, has the highest certainty for release. Several other highly anticipated films, including "Panda Plan 2," "Penghu Naval Battle," "Change of Heart, Flowers Bloom," "Women's Football," "Silent Awakening," and "Blades of the Guardians: Stormy Desert," are also expected to join the competitive holiday slate. Based on the currently announced lineup, the overall buzz for the 2026 Spring Festival holiday may struggle to reach the level seen during the same period in 2025. Nevertheless, the involvement of several marketable directors and lead actors provides a certain degree of assurance for the box office performance of the 2026 holiday season.
Risk Analysis: Risks include changes in film production schedules and release dates for major titles; intensifying industry competition; potential underperformance of films upon release; risks associated with slower-than-expected development of new businesses such as IP monetization; and regulatory policy risks.