As the international gold price hovers just a step away from $5,000 per ounce, as spot silver in London doubles in just two months, as copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and tin stage a "periodic table" rally, and as sulfur prices double in a year and lithium carbonate repeatedly hits new highs... this series of seemingly independent market pulses is converging into a powerful current of the era, heralding that the global commodity market is stepping into a new round of "super cycle." "The intensity and duration of this cycle could far exceed our imagination." Recently, several fund managers expressed similar views, suggesting that under the resonance of numerous factors such as global monetary oversupply, a U.S. dollar credit crisis, innovative demand from the technological revolution, and supply chain restructuring triggered by geopolitical conflicts, global commodities may welcome a cyclical wave that far surpasses market expectations. Sharp-sighted public funds are already responding, turning the compass of investment towards the "lifeblood" and "cornerstone" of modern industry—non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals—not only positioning the historical coordinates of this global commodity feast but also seeking specific paths to profit from the industries beneath this wave.

History never simply repeats itself, but it often rhymes. Looking back over a century, "super cycles" in commodities have often been closely linked to dramatic shifts in the global economic landscape, waves of technological revolution, and the restructuring of monetary systems. Today, we once again stand at a crossroads where multiple historical factors converge. "The root of this super commodity cycle can be traced back to global monetary oversupply," Wang Xu, Equity Investment Director of China Universal Asset Management, pointed out. Since the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has gradually moved from a fringe theory to the center of policy practice. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 further popularized this theory. The massive oversupply of money has not only pushed up inflation but also led to the inflation of asset and commodity prices. Stock markets in major developed countries have generally risen by over 50% in the past five years, while commodities with strong financial attributes have risen by about 100%. Gold and silver have surged by 128% and 171% respectively. This trend spread to industrial metals like copper, aluminum, and tin in the fourth quarter of 2025. The super commodity cycle is bringing super investment opportunities for resource stocks.

Monetary oversupply is like a butterfly flapping its wings, stirring up a storm of a commodity cycle sweeping the globe. A cyclical style fund manager from South China summarized this evolution: "The U.S. debt cycle, structural demand pull, supply chain security, and the supply cycle—these four factors are forming a perfect resonance." First, the U.S. debt cycle and the restructuring of U.S. dollar credit. "The U.S. debt and deficit ratio are in an upward cycle, triggering deep global concerns about U.S. dollar credit," the fund manager analyzed. U.S. debt interest payments have surpassed defense spending, raising serious questions about debt sustainability. Against this backdrop, global central banks are voting with their actions—selling U.S. Treasury bonds and increasing gold holdings to build a more diversified reserve system. This is not merely simple hedging but a "rebalancing" of the existing international monetary system, unprecedentedly strengthening gold's monetary attributes.

Second, structural demand under the transformation of old and new growth drivers. Every historical commodity bull market has been driven by emerging demand. This time, the protagonists are artificial intelligence (AI) and the green energy transition. "Behind AI is electricity," the fund manager emphasized. "Industrial development places unprecedented demands on power and grid reliability. Whether it's the construction of data centers or the upgrade of power grids, copper is indispensable. The core of the energy transition—new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and energy storage—collectively form a huge demand matrix for metals like copper, aluminum, lithium, and nickel. This is a 'lane-changing overtaking' type of demand, whose scale and persistence may far exceed the framework of traditional economic cycles."

Third, supply chain security amid geopolitical changes. "Centennial changes are accelerating, and the logic of supply chains is shifting from emphasizing 'efficiency' to emphasizing 'security'," the fund manager believes. The strategic reserve needs of various countries for critical minerals, energy, and food have risen sharply. Simultaneously, the supply chain restructuring led by the United States shows a trend of regionalization and decentralization. This process itself requires substantial investment in infrastructure and equipment, directly driving demand for commodities. The strategic value of minor metals is particularly prominent; their wide application in technology and military fields makes them important bargaining chips in major power games.

Fourth, supply constraints following a decade-long contraction in capital expenditure. The aforementioned fund manager pointed out that after peaking in 2011, capital expenditure for major global non-ferrous metal varieties entered a prolonged contraction period. Persistently low exploration investment, coupled with the natural decline in ore grades of global mines, has led to increasingly obvious output gaps for major metal varieties. Supply-side constraints are the most rigid part of this cycle. "We are currently in the third global commodity super cycle in the past 60 years, and the price boom is far from over," Ye Peipei, fund manager of ZhongOu Resource Selection, stated bluntly. The characteristic of this cycle is its longer duration. Against the backdrop of supply chain restructuring, ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance), and China's era of 'anti-involution', the period for which scarce resources maintain high prices may be longer than in the previous two cycles.

As the tide of global commodity prices surges, China, as a major global producer and consumer of industrial goods, has also reached a critical turning point in its price trends. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in December 2025, the national Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month, marking three consecutive months of increase, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to November 2025. The PPI fell by 1.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points from November 2025. The PPI, after years of adjustment, is standing at an inflection point of recovery. "2026 is very likely to be a year of change for price trends," Ye Yong, fund manager of the Equity Investment Department at Wanjia Asset Management, stated directly. This could trigger a major shift in market style. His confidence mainly stems from three core factors.

First is the powerful base effect. Ye Yong explained that within the components determining PPI, the black chain, petrochemical chain, and non-ferrous chain account for up to 70%. Among them, the price of black commodities hit an eight-year low in June 2025, and the current price has risen significantly. The base effect alone is sufficient to contribute a positive pull in the first half of 2026. Regarding the petrochemical chain, even if oil prices fluctuate at a low level of $60, they contribute no negative impact to PPI. Factors such as intensified geopolitical conflicts, declining capital expenditure in shale oil, and the realization of negative factors from Saudi production increases are tilting the balance of oil prices upwards. The non-ferrous chain is even more so; the significant rise in the price centers of gold, silver, copper, and aluminum will form a strong positive contribution to PPI. In summary, based on the base effect calculation, the PPI is expected to turn positive by June 2026 at the latest, and possibly even earlier.

Second is the profound impact of the "anti-involution" policy. Ye Yong believes that as a major economic policy related to the overall situation, the central government has a deep understanding of the issues causing involution-style competition in some industries and has begun implementing targeted measures. From direct production controls in steel, to overproduction governance in coal and cement, to cost-based pricing guidance in photovoltaics and express delivery, and the elimination of backward capacity in refining through energy consumption and environmental standards, a series of combined measures are gradually showing results. Optimization on the supply side will effectively improve the profitability of related industries, providing endogenous momentum for price recovery.

Finally, the bottoming out and stabilization of the real estate cycle. After four consecutive years of decline, the proportion of the real estate industry chain in GDP has fallen to below 15%, and nominal housing prices have fallen for 23 quarters (over five years). "It is highly unlikely and should not be the case for real estate prices to continue falling significantly; otherwise, there might be a risk of tail events," Ye Yong judged. "Although a significant rebound is unlikely, in the second half of 2026, real estate prices in major large and medium-sized cities are expected to bottom out. The stabilization of the real estate industry chain will have a positive consolidating effect on the PPI turning positive." Overall, Ye Yong believes that a technical turnaround for PPI is highly probable. Furthermore, after turning positive, due to the gradual effectiveness of the "anti-involution" policy, combined with positive factors such as stabilizing and rising real estate prices and demand-side policy stimulus, the PPI may enter a trend of upward movement, with the time window possibly in the second half of 2026. "The recovery of PPI is a very critical factor, meaning that asset prices are recovering favorably, and more importantly, it signifies a major shift in market style: the pro-cyclical value style, after five years of long-term adjustment, is expected to see a value return. If such a major macro change occurs, the primary response is to use the major market style shift as the baton and strategically allocate to the pro-cyclical style," Ye Yong stated.

The force of macroeconomic tides is profoundly reflected on the investment compasses of fund managers. Facing the global commodity cycle and expectations of domestic price recovery, strategically increasing allocations to pro-cyclical assets, especially the fundamentally strongest sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals, has become a consensus among an increasing number of fund managers. Research from Soochow Securities shows that in the fourth quarter of 2025, the top three industries where active equity-heavy funds increased their holdings the most were non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, and basic chemicals. Among them, the overall positioning of resource products, represented by non-ferrous metals, reached 13.3%, a record high.

Looking at representative stocks, the mining giant Zijin Mining Group, with a market cap of trillions of yuan, entered the list of heavy holdings of 1,794 funds, second only to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL) and Zhongji Innolight in the number of funds holding it heavily. It even became the top holding for 445 funds. Xingye Silver & Tin, whose stock price has quadrupled since last year, went from being almost "ignored by funds" two years ago to being heavily held by over a hundred funds, helping its stock price recently surpass the 100-billion-yuan market cap mark. Stocks like Yunnan Aluminium, Tibet Summit Resources, and Salt Lake Potash further跻身ed the top twenty stocks most increased by active funds in Q4 2025, with these three stocks all doubling in price since last year.

More and more well-known fund managers managing large sums of money are incorporating non-ferrous and chemical stocks into their portfolios. Gao Nan, managing assets over 70 billion yuan, heavily bought stocks like MMG Limited, Zhongfu Industrial, and Hongchuang Holdings; five of the top ten holdings in his representative fund, Yongying Ruixin, are non-ferrous metal stocks. Veteran manager Fu Youxing, managing GF Stable Growth, held Zijin Mining as its top holding while newly acquiring shares in Stanley Black & Decker in the fourth quarter last year. Shen Aiqian, known for favoring growth stocks, newly added Yunnan Aluminium as a heavy holding. Jiao Wei, a billion-yuan fund manager managing Yinhua Furao Jingxuan, simultaneously added seven non-ferrous stocks as new heavy holdings in Q4 last year, including Zijin Mining, Tibet Summit Resources, China Molybdenum, Yunnan Aluminium, Western Mining, Zijin Mining International, and Jiangxi Copper.

This strategic reallocation is not short-term speculation but is based on a profound reshaping of industrial logic and valuation systems. As Ye Peipei said, in the context of the new era, some varieties will transition from "cyclical" to "dividend," with reshaped pricing and valuation systems, such as electrolytic aluminum, whose stable dividends attract long-term capital. Some varieties will transition from "cyclical" to "growth," such as gold and copper, welcoming a Davis Double Click on earnings and valuations.

After determining the strategic direction, precise tactical deployment tests the "alchemy" of fund managers. Among the many pro-cyclical sectors, how to choose and how to construct a portfolio become the key to success. "The first echelon is industrial non-ferrous metals and minor metals," Ye Yong said. As globally priced varieties, industrial metals have seen prices rise steadily over the past two years, with smooth investment logic. Now, coupled with expectations of domestic macroeconomic recovery, the logic is further strengthened, potentially leading to a resonance of profit improvement and valuation expansion, continuing to be core varieties.

Ye Peipei stated that the five most promising varieties for 2026 are copper, aluminum, lithium carbonate, gold, and minor metals (tungsten), while also paying attention to left-side layout opportunities for reversal varieties (chemicals, coking coal, steel, building materials, etc.). "For example, the core logic for copper lies in the supply-demand contradiction under the transformation of old and new growth drivers. New energy, grid transformation, and U.S. AI infrastructure demand collectively form new growth engines. If AI infrastructure progresses faster than expected, it might bring the potential supply shortage forward. The aluminum sector offers a strong risk-reward ratio; on one hand, it has the ability for sustained high dividends, and on the other hand, its demand side has growth elasticity, with energy storage and AI infrastructure being clear sources of增量. Additionally, after gold, silver, and copper hit new highs, pay attention to substitution opportunities like aluminum for copper and magnesium for aluminum," Ye Peipei said.

Chen Ziyang, fund manager of Great Wall Cycle优选, is relatively more optimistic about the chemical sector. "The non-ferrous sector achieved nearly a doubling in gains last year, and institutional allocation ratios are also at relatively high levels. In contrast, the current valuation percentile for the chemical sector is at a historically low level, and profit expectations are gradually recovering. Therefore, chemicals are one of our key focus areas this year." Chen Ziyang further analyzed, "For the chemical industry, first, industry capital expenditure has declined, new capacity投放 is nearing its end, and the industry will move from surplus to balance or even shortage, with profitability also recovering. Secondly, senior officials have proposed governing disorderly involution. In the future, the entry barriers for chemical projects in terms of environmental protection and energy consumption will become increasingly high, and capacity might become a scarce resource or license. Finally, from a global perspective, China has a chemical industry sector that is comprehensive, efficient, and low-cost, while some overseas chemical capacity is exiting. Once profits rebound in the future, chemical assets will be revalued."

From the "growth" story of non-ferrous metals to the "reversal" logic of the chemical industry, a new round of the global commodity super cycle has set sail.