Veteran Wall Street analyst and founder of Yardeni Research, Ed Yardeni, has put forth a "dual 10,000" prediction, suggesting that both the S&P 500 index and gold could reach the 10,000 mark by the end of this decade.

In a report to clients this Thursday, Yardeni explained that the core logic behind his long-term bullish stance on gold is the expectation that the S&P 500 will rise to 10,000 points by 2030. During this process, investors will continuously rebalance their portfolios towards assets like gold, thereby pushing gold prices higher in tandem.

In the near term, Yardeni also maintains an optimistic outlook. He anticipates that once the conflict with Iran formally concludes, gold will resume its upward trajectory, reaching $5,500 per ounce by the end of 2026—a gain of nearly $1,000 from Friday's price of $4,533.

Currently, gold remains pressured under the shadow of the conflict, having recorded only about a 5% gain year-to-date, significantly underperforming its robust performance of over 70% in 2025. In contrast, the S&P 500 index has left geopolitical risks behind, setting consecutive record closing highs since its low on March 30.

"Dual 10,000": Rebalancing Effect Drives Long-Term Co-Movement of Gold and Stocks

While the S&P 500 index and gold prices often exhibit an inverse correlation on a cyclical basis, Yardeni points out that over longer time horizons, they tend to move in the same direction. His reasoning is that as the prolonged bull market in stocks continues, the accumulated wealth of investors will prompt them to rebalance into assets like gold, providing structural support for gold prices.

Gold's performance this year has been heavily weighed down by the Iran conflict. After reaching a high of $5,318 per ounce in late January, gold prices retreated, falling to around $4,375 in March. They have since rebounded somewhat with the ceasefire agreement but have failed to return to previous highs.

Yardeni notes that gold is currently testing multiple technical support levels, including the March low, the 200-day moving average ($4,407), and the medium-term uptrend line. He states that "the price decline since late January has brought gold back within the upward channel that began in late 2023" and believes this support is likely to hold. In his view, the formal conclusion of the conflict will be a key catalyst for gold to resume its upward trend.

Strong Dollar and Hawkish Fed Expectations Pose Near-Term Headwinds

Beyond geopolitical factors, gold also faces dual macro-level pressures. A stronger U.S. dollar during wartime directly weighs on dollar-denominated gold. Simultaneously, some central banks, pressured by their currencies due to high oil prices, have been forced to sell gold reserves to stabilize exchange rates, further suppressing gold prices.

Yardeni expects the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish interest rate stance this summer, which will create near-term resistance for gold price appreciation. However, he believes that the end of the Iran conflict will help mitigate this negative impact, thereby clearing the path for gold to resume its upward movement.