Abstract

CoreCivic, Inc will report its quarterly results on February 11, 2026 Post Market, with investors focused on revenue traction from Safety contracts and operating leverage amid margin normalization; consensus points to higher revenue and EPS versus last year as the company navigates federal and state demand trends.

Market Forecast

Based on the company’s latest guidance framework and market tracking, the current quarter forecast points to revenue of $577.80 million, implying year-over-year growth of 24.21%, EBIT of $41.95 million with an estimated year-over-year increase of 33.46%, and EPS of $0.18 with estimated year-over-year growth of 84.00%. Forecast details for gross profit margin and net margin are not provided; however, the implied trajectory suggests an uptick in operating profitability on scale effects if utilization and per-diem rates hold, with adjusted EPS expected to expand alongside EBIT growth. The Safety segment remains the core revenue engine with stable contract flow and pricing dynamics, while Community and Properties provide incremental diversification across reentry services and real estate leasing. The most promising area centers on incremental Safety wins, which accounted for $545.08 million in last quarter’s revenue, with year-over-year expansion supported by higher occupancy and rate adjustments.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, CoreCivic, Inc delivered revenue of $580.44 million, a gross profit margin of 22.55%, net profit attributable to the parent of $26.31 million with a net profit margin of 4.53%, and adjusted EPS of $0.24, while quarter-on-quarter net profit declined by 31.74%. A notable highlight was top-line outperformance versus market estimates, underscored by stronger occupancy and day-rate realization that helped offset wage and compliance cost pressures. The main business profile showed Safety at $545.08 million, Community at $30.65 million, and Properties at $4.71 million, reflecting a portfolio driven primarily by Safety; year-over-year growth commentary was not disclosed for each line, but the aggregate revenue rose 18.08% year over year.

Current Quarter Outlook

Safety Operations and Secure Services

Safety remains the centerpiece of CoreCivic, Inc’s earnings power this quarter, with volume underpinned by ongoing state and federal needs across secure facilities. The revenue projection of $577.80 million for the consolidated business suggests modest sequential normalization from the prior quarter’s revenue high but a solid year-over-year rebound of 24.21%, which typically implies sustained utilization and rate support within Safety. Operating leverage could materialize if fixed-cost absorption remains favorable, particularly where staffing stabilization and overtime control help preserve the 22.55% gross margin baseline seen last quarter. Investors will monitor the mix between federal and state contracts, as a higher federal share can influence margin cadence depending on the prevailing per-diem rates and intake flows.

The internal dynamics of Safety can also be affected by contract renewals and start-up timelines. If renewals align with or exceed expiring contract rates, the segment can support EBIT growth of 33.46% to $41.95 million, consistent with the forecast. Management’s focus on cost discipline is relevant given last quarter’s quarter-on-quarter net profit compression of 31.74%, which highlights the sensitivity of bottom-line outcomes to temporary labor and compliance costs. The key swing factor remains the trajectory of occupancy in higher-margin facilities; incremental improvement could underpin the EPS estimate of $0.18, even if revenue moderates sequentially from the prior period’s elevated base.

Community Corrections and Reentry Services

Community services provide diversification beyond secure facilities and can influence the consolidated margin profile through different staffing models and programmatic reimbursement structures. Although the segment’s revenue base of $30.65 million last quarter is smaller than Safety, its contribution can affect the blended gross margin depending on utilization of halfway houses and reentry programs. If program participation and state referrals rise, Community can provide incremental EBIT contribution without sizable capital outlays, thereby aiding EPS resiliency. The interplay between Community utilization and case management mix could also modestly buffer the volatility associated with cyclical fluctuations in Safety demand.

For this quarter, management’s forecast suite does not break out Community separately, but a steady utilization trend would support the consolidated revenue estimate and guard against margin slippage. A positive surprise would come from any expansion of reentry contracts at attractive reimbursement terms, which could support the EBIT growth outlook and provide a modest uplift to adjusted EPS. Conversely, underutilization or higher staffing costs could dilute margins, reinforcing the importance of efficiency in deployment and program scheduling.

Properties and Real Estate Leasing

The Properties segment, at $4.71 million last quarter, is comparatively small but offers a cash flow profile driven by leasing and contracted rental streams. The segment’s predictability can help stabilize overall results when Security operations face short-term variability. Any expansions in lease agreements, particularly with government partners, could incrementally bolster operating income. While its absolute growth impact on the current quarter is limited, consistent performance in Properties can support EBIT margin stabilization by mitigating revenue volatility elsewhere.

In the current quarter, sustainable rental yields and low maintenance expenditures are supportive of segment-level profitability. Investors should track whether any asset dispositions, lease renewals, or capital improvements are disclosed, as these can affect depreciation and operating expense trends that roll up into EBIT. If the quarter reflects steady leasing income with minimal cost variability, the segment can contribute to maintaining the EPS forecast of $0.18 by moderating consolidated margin pressure.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

The most impactful factor for the stock in the near term is the relationship between occupancy trends and per-diem rates within the Safety portfolio, as this directly influences margin realization and EBIT. A second driver is the cost trajectory for staffing and compliance; last quarter’s 22.55% gross margin provides a benchmark, and any meaningful deviation—positive or negative—will color EPS outcomes. Finally, the cadence of contract renewals and new awards will guide the revenue outlook for future quarters; beats to the revenue estimate of $577.80 million could hinge on earlier-than-expected start dates or higher-rate renewals.

Macro considerations also play a role, including shifts in state and federal funding that influence inmate populations and facility utilization. Should demand from federal agencies remain stable or grow, the company’s consolidated revenue growth of 24.21% year over year could be maintained, allowing EBIT to approach the forecasted $41.95 million. Conversely, timing slippages in new contracts or lower-than-expected intake would bias results toward the lower end of expectations, compelling more cost containment to protect margins.

Analyst Opinions

Across the latest preview cycle, the majority of analysts express a cautiously constructive stance, citing the potential for year-over-year expansion in revenue and EPS alongside improving operating leverage. The central bullish case highlights the projected revenue of $577.80 million and EPS of $0.18, emphasizing 24.21% and 84.00% year-over-year growth respectively as evidence of a favorable demand backdrop and improved occupancy. Analysts also point to EBIT forecast growth of 33.46% to $41.95 million as a sign that margins can improve if staffing and compliance costs remain contained.

Supportive commentary focuses on steady contract pipelines within the Safety segment and manageable near-term capital needs, which could allow continued deleveraging and flexibility for reinvestment. The bullish view notes that last quarter’s revenue outperformance against estimates provides a base for confidence, even though net profit margin was 4.53% and quarter-on-quarter net profit declined by 31.74%, suggesting some cost noise that could normalize. The prevailing expectation is that any sequential moderation in revenue is unlikely to derail year-over-year growth, especially if facility utilization and per-diem rates remain supportive. In sum, the majority outlook anticipates that CoreCivic, Inc will deliver higher revenue and improved profitability year over year, with upside potential if execution on labor management and contract timing aligns with forecasts.